{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2032984508","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","title":"The best guess hypothesis in multistage inference","display_name":"The best guess hypothesis in multistage inference","publication_year":1973,"publication_date":"1973-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2032984508","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","mag":"2032984508"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S157779219","display_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance","issn_l":"0030-5073","issn":["0030-5073","1878-2647"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319955","host_organization_name":"Academic Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319955","https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Academic Press","Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5020181887","display_name":"Charles F. Gettys","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I8692664","display_name":"University of Oklahoma","ror":"https://ror.org/02aqsxs83","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8692664"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Charles F. Gettys","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Oklahoma, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Oklahoma, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8692664"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5077682638","display_name":"Clinton W. Kelly","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Clinton Kelly","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Michigan , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Michigan , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5112092902","display_name":"Cameron R. Peterson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cameron R. Peterson","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Michigan , USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Michigan , USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5020181887"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I8692664"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.5527,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":60,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.88841202,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"10","issue":"3","first_page":"364","last_page":"373"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9818999767303467,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9818999767303467,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.006899999920278788,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.004399999976158142,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-updating","display_name":"Bayesian updating","score":0.5920000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intuitive-judgment","display_name":"intuitive judgment","score":0.3880000114440918},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overconfidence","display_name":"overconfidence","score":0.4569999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-neglect","display_name":"probability neglect","score":0.3310000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sequential-decision-making","display_name":"sequential decision making","score":0.4180000126361847},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heuristics","display_name":"heuristics","score":0.4950000047683716}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.817055881023407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.6974340677261353},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95167961","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4483495","display_name":"Fiducial inference","level":5,"score":0.5939136147499084},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C207201462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q182505","display_name":"Bayes' theorem","level":3,"score":0.5856069326400757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.5329623818397522},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134261354","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q938438","display_name":"Statistical inference","level":2,"score":0.5169457793235779},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.4602448344230652},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.44032543897628784},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C917703","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7239668","display_name":"Predictive inference","level":5,"score":0.4313937723636627},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162376815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2158281","display_name":"Frequentist inference","level":4,"score":0.4275232255458832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.36793673038482666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.34537994861602783},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3362252712249756},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.2746455669403076},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90024-x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S157779219","display_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance","issn_l":"0030-5073","issn":["0030-5073","1878-2647"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319955","host_organization_name":"Academic Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319955","https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Academic Press","Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Performance","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/33759","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/33759","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306101","display_name":"National Aeronautics and Space Administration","ror":"https://ror.org/027ka1x80"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332815","display_name":"Advanced Research Projects Agency","ror":"https://ror.org/02caytj08"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":6,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1976542528","https://openalex.org/W2008334511","https://openalex.org/W2047363429","https://openalex.org/W2787961269","https://openalex.org/W2949476756","https://openalex.org/W4285719527"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7101125906","https://openalex.org/W2033617209","https://openalex.org/W1987970358","https://openalex.org/W1984613482","https://openalex.org/W1968928433","https://openalex.org/W2402131973","https://openalex.org/W4394916895","https://openalex.org/W1986142349","https://openalex.org/W2024357715","https://openalex.org/W1991623139"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
