{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2030655015","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070407","title":"Diffusion of new products in risk\u2010sensitive markets","display_name":"Diffusion of new products in risk\u2010sensitive markets","publication_year":1988,"publication_date":"1988-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2030655015","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070407","mag":"2030655015"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.3980070407","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070407","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070407","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5032857095","display_name":"Shmuel S. Oren","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6065-9892","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6065-9892"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I173498003","display_name":"Palo Alto Research Center","ror":"https://ror.org/0529fxt39","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I173498003","https://openalex.org/I4210132870"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I95457486","display_name":"University of California, Berkeley","ror":"https://ror.org/01an7q238","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Shmuel S. Oren","raw_affiliation_strings":["Rick G. Schwartz, Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., 3000 Sand Hill Road Suite 4\u2013255, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA","Shmuel S. Oren is Professor and Chairman of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research at the University of California, at Berkeley. He was formerly on the faculty of the Engineering-Economic Systems Department at Stanford University, which he joined from Xerox Palo Alto Research Center. At Xerox, he was involved in developing planning tools and market analysis models. His current research interests include optimization theory, marketing and economic modeling, pricing policies and electric power planning. He has been a consultant to various organizations, including Xerox, SRI International and EPRI. Dr Oren received his BSc in Mechanical Engineering and his MSc in Materials Engineering from Technion in Haifa, Israel. In 1972 he received his PhD from the Engineering-Economic Systems Department, Stanford University. Professor Oren has published numerous articles on optimization, marketing and economics. His national affiliations include the Mathematical Programming Society, the Operations Research Society of America and the Institute of Management Science","Shmuel S. Oren, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA","University of California at Berkeley, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Rick G. Schwartz, Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., 3000 Sand Hill Road Suite 4\u2013255, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Shmuel S. Oren is Professor and Chairman of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research at the University of California, at Berkeley. He was formerly on the faculty of the Engineering-Economic Systems Department at Stanford University, which he joined from Xerox Palo Alto Research Center. At Xerox, he was involved in developing planning tools and market analysis models. His current research interests include optimization theory, marketing and economic modeling, pricing policies and electric power planning. He has been a consultant to various organizations, including Xerox, SRI International and EPRI. Dr Oren received his BSc in Mechanical Engineering and his MSc in Materials Engineering from Technion in Haifa, Israel. In 1972 he received his PhD from the Engineering-Economic Systems Department, Stanford University. Professor Oren has published numerous articles on optimization, marketing and economics. His national affiliations include the Mathematical Programming Society, the Operations Research Society of America and the Institute of Management Science","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I173498003","https://openalex.org/I95457486","https://openalex.org/I97018004"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Shmuel S. Oren, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California at Berkeley, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5058313101","display_name":"Rick G. Schwartz","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","display_name":"Cornell University","ror":"https://ror.org/05bnh6r87","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I95457486","display_name":"University of California, Berkeley","ror":"https://ror.org/01an7q238","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rick G. Schwartz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., USA","Rick G. Schwartz is Senior Manager with Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., where he specializes in market analysis studies to forecast consumer choices for a variety of products and services, including health care, audiovisual and printing/publishing. He received BS and BA degrees from Cornell University and a PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford University. His dissertation concerns the diffusion of medical innovations and modeling the adoption decisions of patients and health-care providers. While completing this research, Dr Schwartz spent four years with the Cardiology Division at Stanford University, where he conducted studies of the risks, efficacy and market potential of new treatments for survivors of heart attacks. During this period he was encouraged by the applicability of the diffusion model to decisions on clinical research strategies. Dr Schwartz's current research interests include consumer aversion to the risks of innovations, product differentiation within a market and consumer segmentation","Rick G. Schwartz, Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., 3000 Sand Hill Road Suite 4\u2013255, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA","Shmuel S. Oren, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., USA","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Rick G. Schwartz is Senior Manager with Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., where he specializes in market analysis studies to forecast consumer choices for a variety of products and services, including health care, audiovisual and printing/publishing. He received BS and BA degrees from Cornell University and a PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems from Stanford University. His dissertation concerns the diffusion of medical innovations and modeling the adoption decisions of patients and health-care providers. While completing this research, Dr Schwartz spent four years with the Cardiology Division at Stanford University, where he conducted studies of the risks, efficacy and market potential of new treatments for survivors of heart attacks. During this period he was encouraged by the applicability of the diffusion model to decisions on clinical research strategies. Dr Schwartz's current research interests include consumer aversion to the risks of innovations, product differentiation within a market and consumer segmentation","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I205783295","https://openalex.org/I97018004"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Rick G. Schwartz, Applied Decision Analysis, Inc., 3000 Sand Hill Road Suite 4\u2013255, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Shmuel S. Oren, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I95457486"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5032857095"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I173498003","https://openalex.org/I95457486","https://openalex.org/I97018004"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.5998,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":66,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.88596295,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"7","issue":"4","first_page":"273","last_page":"287"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12659","display_name":"Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11161","display_name":"Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1406","display_name":"Marketing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-product-diffusion","display_name":"new product diffusion","score":0.871999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-aversion","display_name":"risk aversion","score":0.7459999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-uncertainty","display_name":"consumer uncertainty","score":0.8169999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-utility","display_name":"expected utility","score":0.5989999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-updating","display_name":"Bayesian updating","score":0.8790000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/early-adopters","display_name":"early adopters","score":0.9279999732971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-growth","display_name":"logistic growth","score":0.8840000033378601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-heterogeneity","display_name":"consumer heterogeneity","score":0.925000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/market-forecast","display_name":"market forecast","score":0.6679999828338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumables","display_name":"consumables","score":0.47200000286102295}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C90673727","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q901718","display_name":"Product (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.6381742358207703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62126406","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1681365","display_name":"Consumables","level":2,"score":0.5855536460876465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5830190181732178},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C69357855","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q163214","display_name":"Diffusion","level":2,"score":0.5207302570343018},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C67741611","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7247787","display_name":"Product proliferation","level":4,"score":0.49319666624069214},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776314989","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q833495","display_name":"Consumer choice","level":2,"score":0.4522469937801361},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4316326379776001},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98045186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q205663","display_name":"Process (computing)","level":2,"score":0.4309332072734833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19351080","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1395034","display_name":"New product development","level":2,"score":0.4173278212547302},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16051113","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q828814","display_name":"Market share","level":2,"score":0.4102926254272461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.3869229257106781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.3803439736366272},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.3685051202774048},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3416635990142822},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.28284651041030884},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.2788931131362915},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C545102676","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1780667","display_name":"Product management","level":3,"score":0.0819711983203888},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111919701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9135","display_name":"Operating system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C97355855","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11473","display_name":"Thermodynamics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.3980070407","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070407","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980070407","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":21,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W599513377","https://openalex.org/W1484020476","https://openalex.org/W1492301466","https://openalex.org/W1984697813","https://openalex.org/W1987592883","https://openalex.org/W1991912782","https://openalex.org/W1998725165","https://openalex.org/W2003455053","https://openalex.org/W2006992531","https://openalex.org/W2050897613","https://openalex.org/W2052750388","https://openalex.org/W2060055073","https://openalex.org/W2062516595","https://openalex.org/W2089385926","https://openalex.org/W2106067554","https://openalex.org/W2107140526","https://openalex.org/W2119750786","https://openalex.org/W2130067743","https://openalex.org/W2265720734","https://openalex.org/W4240693651","https://openalex.org/W4253543067"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2255751037","https://openalex.org/W6929169788","https://openalex.org/W1525299906","https://openalex.org/W7214551033","https://openalex.org/W2107140526","https://openalex.org/W1993457236","https://openalex.org/W1983535612","https://openalex.org/W7155718687","https://openalex.org/W642656258","https://openalex.org/W2343444858"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Diffusion":[1],"of":[2,26,87,108,118,124],"new":[3,36,92,110],"products":[4],"may":[5],"be":[6,97],"deterred":[7],"by":[8,63,99],"consumers'":[9],"uncertainties":[10,55],"about":[11,69],"how":[12],"they":[13],"will":[14],"perform.":[15],"This":[16],"paper":[17,113],"introduces":[18],"a":[19,33,57,116],"decision\u2010theoretic":[20],"framework":[21],"for":[22,101,120],"modeling":[23],"the":[24,70,76,79,85,91,109],"diffusion":[25],"consumables,":[27],"in":[28,56,84],"which":[29],"consumers":[30,88],"choose":[31,90],"between":[32],"current":[34],"and":[35,51,75,127],"product":[37],"so":[38],"as":[39],"to":[40,106],"maximize":[41],"expected":[42],"utility.":[43],"Consumers":[44],"that":[45,89],"are":[46],"sufficiently":[47],"risk\u2010averse":[48],"delay":[49],"adoption,":[50],"change":[52],"their":[53],"prior":[54],"Bayesian":[58],"fashion":[59],"using":[60],"information":[61],"generated":[62],"early":[64],"adopters.":[65],"Under":[66],"certain":[67],"assumptions":[68],"underlying":[71],"consumer":[72,102],"choice":[73],"process":[74],"market":[77,121,125],"dynamics,":[78],"result":[80],"is":[81],"logistic":[82],"growth":[83],"share":[86],"product.":[93,111],"The":[94,112],"model":[95],"can":[96],"generalized":[98],"allowing":[100],"heterogeneity":[103],"with":[104,115],"respect":[105],"performance":[107],"concludes":[114],"discussion":[117],"applications":[119],"forecasting,":[122],"design":[123],"trials":[126],"other":[128],"extensions.":[129]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}