{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2028794663","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414086019001001","title":"Forecasting Internal Conflict","display_name":"Forecasting Internal Conflict","publication_year":1986,"publication_date":"1986-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2028794663","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414086019001001","mag":"2028794663"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/0010414086019001001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414086019001001","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414086019001001","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S105556297","display_name":"Comparative Political Studies","issn_l":"0010-4140","issn":["0010-4140","1552-3829"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Comparative Political Studies","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023012490","display_name":"Ted Robert Gurr","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"TED ROBERT GURR","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Colorado, Boulder"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Colorado, Boulder","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108604318","display_name":"Mark Irving Lichbach","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2461-5013","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2461-5013"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I39422238","display_name":"University of Illinois Chicago","ror":"https://ror.org/02mpq6x41","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"MARK IRVING LICHBACH","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Illinois, Chicago"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Illinois, Chicago","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I39422238"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3900,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3900},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.8081,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":104,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.8596878,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"19","issue":"1","first_page":"3","last_page":"38"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/domestic-conflict","display_name":"domestic conflict","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conflict-prediction","display_name":"conflict prediction","score":0.6859999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-discontent","display_name":"social discontent","score":0.9089999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/attitudes-toward-conflict","display_name":"attitudes toward conflict","score":0.6759999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conflict-persistence","display_name":"conflict persistence","score":0.746999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conflict-intensity","display_name":"conflict intensity","score":0.8270000219345093}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98184364","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1780131","display_name":"Argument (complex analysis)","level":2,"score":0.6934210658073425},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.6601454019546509},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C13367683","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10860599","display_name":"Internal conflict","level":3,"score":0.5963647365570068},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C109005114","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1412640","display_name":"Conflict theories","level":3,"score":0.5600050091743469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C182306322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1779371","display_name":"Order (exchange)","level":2,"score":0.5248979330062866},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.4849858283996582},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.4614964425563812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201670107","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5160205","display_name":"Conflict resolution research","level":3,"score":0.43920302391052246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.43581992387771606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.4167739450931549},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138921699","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47555","display_name":"Political economy","level":1,"score":0.3652579188346863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.3504791259765625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21711469","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1194317","display_name":"Conflict resolution","level":2,"score":0.3326704502105713},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.29434865713119507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.13911357522010803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78458016","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840400","display_name":"Evolutionary biology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/0010414086019001001","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414086019001001","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414086019001001","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S105556297","display_name":"Comparative Political Studies","issn_l":"0010-4140","issn":["0010-4140","1552-3829"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Comparative Political Studies","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.9595999717712402,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":33,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W593307024","https://openalex.org/W654049142","https://openalex.org/W1491640789","https://openalex.org/W1493066239","https://openalex.org/W1588670723","https://openalex.org/W1899803986","https://openalex.org/W1985301050","https://openalex.org/W1992016002","https://openalex.org/W2001155180","https://openalex.org/W2015009385","https://openalex.org/W2016276378","https://openalex.org/W2027459608","https://openalex.org/W2038631063","https://openalex.org/W2051733957","https://openalex.org/W2063938048","https://openalex.org/W2067971885","https://openalex.org/W2110126044","https://openalex.org/W2115693692","https://openalex.org/W2119369529","https://openalex.org/W2139070280","https://openalex.org/W2172274536","https://openalex.org/W2270864342","https://openalex.org/W2277965232","https://openalex.org/W2331101738","https://openalex.org/W2476744527","https://openalex.org/W2504519278","https://openalex.org/W2796631575","https://openalex.org/W2797016104","https://openalex.org/W2797157089","https://openalex.org/W3021830481","https://openalex.org/W3101618635","https://openalex.org/W3124941243","https://openalex.org/W4297671204"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4290632045","https://openalex.org/W6981180893","https://openalex.org/W7097899207","https://openalex.org/W2028760981","https://openalex.org/W2048085331","https://openalex.org/W2030291128","https://openalex.org/W4387100953","https://openalex.org/W190641470","https://openalex.org/W2771633822","https://openalex.org/W2485734425"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"article":[1],"evaluates":[2],"a":[3,11,16,32,76,94,101],"formal":[4],"theory":[5],"of":[6,18,25,34,44,59,68,78,89,103,126],"domestic":[7,69,127],"political":[8,27,70,128],"conflict":[9,28,71,80,113,129],"using":[10],"forecasting":[12,57],"approach.":[13],"The":[14,91],"theory,":[15],"mobilization":[17],"discontent":[19],"model,":[20,97],"argues":[21],"that":[22],"the":[23,42,50,56,79,85,124],"extent":[24,86],"open":[26],"within":[29],"nations":[30,118],"is":[31,93],"function":[33],"popular":[35,37],"discontent,":[36],"dispositions":[38],"toward":[39],"conflict,":[40],"and":[41,49,64,87,121],"balance":[43],"organizational":[45],"strengt":[46],"between":[47,84],"challengers":[48],"regime.":[51],"In":[52],"order":[53],"to":[54,111],"examine":[55],"power":[58],"this":[60],"argument,":[61],"two":[62],"competing":[63],"less":[65],"elaborate":[66],"models":[67,108],"are":[72,109,130],"also":[73],"proposed.":[74],"One,":[75],"model":[77],"process,":[81],"forms":[82],"linkages":[83],"intensity":[88],"conflict.":[90],"other":[92],"truly":[95],"naive":[96],"which":[98],"represents":[99],"only":[100],"persistence":[102],"conflit":[104],"argument.":[105],"All":[106],"three":[107],"used":[110],"forecast":[112],"for":[114,123],"10":[115],"randomly":[116],"selected":[117],"in":[119],"1971-1975,":[120],"implications":[122],"modelling":[125],"drawn.":[131]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":6}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}