{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2026569503","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","title":"Forecasting short-term freight rate cycles: do we have a more appropriate method than a normal distribution?","display_name":"Forecasting short-term freight rate cycles: do we have a more appropriate method than a normal distribution?","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-10-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2026569503","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","mag":"2026569503"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S155850388","display_name":"Maritime Policy & Management","issn_l":"0308-8839","issn":["0308-8839","1464-5254"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Maritime Policy &amp; Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047981051","display_name":"\u0391\u03bb\u03ad\u03be\u03b1\u03bd\u03b4\u03c1\u03bf\u03c2 \u039c. \u0393\u03bf\u03c5\u03bb\u03b9\u03ad\u03bb\u03bc\u03bf\u03c2","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154757721","display_name":"University of Piraeus","ror":"https://ror.org/02qs84g94","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154757721"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alexandros M. Goulielmos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Maritime Studies, University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Street, Piraeus 18534, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Maritime Studies, University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Street, Piraeus 18534, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154757721"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5047820750","display_name":"Maria-Elpiniki Psifia","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I154757721","display_name":"University of Piraeus","ror":"https://ror.org/02qs84g94","country_code":"GR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I154757721"]}],"countries":["GR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Maria-Elpiniki Psifia","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Maritime Studies, University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Street, Piraeus 18534, Greece"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Maritime Studies, University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Street, Piraeus 18534, Greece","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154757721"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5047981051"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I154757721"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.0309,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":28,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91070124,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"38","issue":"6","first_page":"645","last_page":"672"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.6060000061988831,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.6060000061988831,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.10019999742507935,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11223","display_name":"Maritime Ports and Logistics","score":0.045099999755620956,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2209","display_name":"Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/shipping-market","display_name":"shipping market","score":0.4569999873638153},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/v-statistics","display_name":"V-statistics","score":0.7080000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/short-term-forecasting","display_name":"short-term forecasting","score":0.6309999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/heavy-tailed-distributions","display_name":"heavy-tailed distributions","score":0.7080000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/leptokurtic-distributions","display_name":"leptokurtic distributions","score":0.9039999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/skewness","display_name":"skewness","score":0.5580000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/normal-distribution-assumption","display_name":"normal distribution assumption","score":0.7630000114440918}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166963901","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287251","display_name":"Kurtosis","level":2,"score":0.7682448625564575},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777596936","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q727002","display_name":"Charter","level":2,"score":0.7247653007507324},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122342681","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q330828","display_name":"Skewness","level":2,"score":0.6149430871009827},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89128539","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1949963","display_name":"Statistic","level":2,"score":0.6106171607971191},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5174353718757629},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.497905969619751},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C102094743","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q133871","display_name":"Normal distribution","level":2,"score":0.485592782497406},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.4822576642036438},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C110121322","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q865811","display_name":"Distribution (mathematics)","level":2,"score":0.4755955636501312},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4649822413921356},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22679943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159375","display_name":"Standard deviation","level":2,"score":0.4153837263584137},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4068893790245056},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.39294564723968506},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3679566979408264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.19859927892684937},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.16973137855529785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.09154877066612244},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S155850388","display_name":"Maritime Policy & Management","issn_l":"0308-8839","issn":["0308-8839","1464-5254"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Maritime Policy &amp; Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:marpmg:v:38:y:2011:i:6:p:645-672","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/03088839.2011.556673","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":66,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W51909624","https://openalex.org/W237152311","https://openalex.org/W583920785","https://openalex.org/W637485574","https://openalex.org/W652580693","https://openalex.org/W1507259579","https://openalex.org/W1552362148","https://openalex.org/W1554253427","https://openalex.org/W1578254027","https://openalex.org/W1593989237","https://openalex.org/W1777686218","https://openalex.org/W1874617559","https://openalex.org/W1966773887","https://openalex.org/W1970312998","https://openalex.org/W1978248790","https://openalex.org/W1982212210","https://openalex.org/W1982584857","https://openalex.org/W1983592571","https://openalex.org/W1989829652","https://openalex.org/W1991420284","https://openalex.org/W2001979342","https://openalex.org/W2013860961","https://openalex.org/W2023202560","https://openalex.org/W2028856408","https://openalex.org/W2030765885","https://openalex.org/W2032145335","https://openalex.org/W2044764754","https://openalex.org/W2051347137","https://openalex.org/W2053889774","https://openalex.org/W2062511110","https://openalex.org/W2063130671","https://openalex.org/W2066211430","https://openalex.org/W2066885474","https://openalex.org/W2072174105","https://openalex.org/W2076209196","https://openalex.org/W2079615115","https://openalex.org/W2090637028","https://openalex.org/W2090878826","https://openalex.org/W2091950080","https://openalex.org/W2093911339","https://openalex.org/W2094875854","https://openalex.org/W2110603299","https://openalex.org/W2116988722","https://openalex.org/W2135691157","https://openalex.org/W2148701515","https://openalex.org/W2150045847","https://openalex.org/W2153562738","https://openalex.org/W2160597367","https://openalex.org/W2323266160","https://openalex.org/W2328464670","https://openalex.org/W2341760625","https://openalex.org/W2496717212","https://openalex.org/W2559577701","https://openalex.org/W2797062887","https://openalex.org/W2988934653","https://openalex.org/W3122165036","https://openalex.org/W3122475708","https://openalex.org/W3122712023","https://openalex.org/W3123603767","https://openalex.org/W3124661333","https://openalex.org/W3125246470","https://openalex.org/W4229511720","https://openalex.org/W4239934782","https://openalex.org/W4247340585","https://openalex.org/W4299368855","https://openalex.org/W4300776286"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4287930027","https://openalex.org/W2062511110","https://openalex.org/W51909624","https://openalex.org/W2160597367","https://openalex.org/W2110271241","https://openalex.org/W2594839679","https://openalex.org/W1970312998","https://openalex.org/W2016881509","https://openalex.org/W2044764754","https://openalex.org/W7165841978"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"General":[0],"economists,":[1,6],"as":[2,4],"well":[3],"Maritime":[5],"assume":[7],"that":[8],"the":[9,25,33,51,55,121,136,167,191,198,206],"time":[10,39,75],"series":[11,50,95,118],"they":[12],"forecast":[13,187],"follow":[14],"normal":[15,122],"distribution,":[16],"and":[17,21,69,99,105,162,185,216,220,226,232],"data":[18,52,131],"is":[19,150,186,202],"independently":[20],"identically":[22],"distributed":[23],"around":[24],"mean.":[26],"This":[27,155],"paper":[28],"contests":[29],"this":[30,49,94,117],"assumption":[31],"with":[32,153],"aid":[34],"of":[35,38,170,193,197,234,243],"three":[36,60],"sets":[37],"series:":[40],"(1)":[41],"The":[42,74,107,230],"Dry":[43,108],"Cargo":[44,109],"Freight":[45],"Index,":[46],"1741\u20132005:":[47],"in":[48,101,151,213],"deviate":[53],"from":[54,86,113,120],"mean":[56],"by":[57,205,209],"more":[58,129],"than":[59,66],"standard":[61],"deviations":[62],"on":[63,158,172,181],"no":[64],"fewer":[65],"six":[67],"occasions,":[68],"exhibited":[70],"\u201cfat":[71],"tails\u201d;":[72],"(2)":[73],"charter":[76],"freight":[77],"rates":[78],"for":[79,132],"a":[80,102],"10-year-old,":[81],"80":[82],"000":[83],"dwt":[84],"vessel":[85],"6":[87],"January":[88],"1989":[89],"to":[90,115,142,147,188],"26":[91],"December":[92,174,183],"2008:":[93],"also":[96],"exhibits":[97],"skewness":[98],"kurtosis":[100],"leptokurtic":[103],"distribution;":[104],"(3)":[106],"Time":[110],"Charter":[111],"Index":[112],"1971":[114],"2004:":[116],"diverged":[119],"distribution":[123],"four":[124],"times.":[125],"Next,":[126],"we":[127],"searched":[128],"recent":[130],"short-term":[133],"cycles":[134,218],"using":[135,200],"V-statistic.":[137],"One":[138],"cycle":[139,156,179,199],"was":[140],"found":[141],"last":[143,189],"4":[144],"years":[145],"(2005":[146],"2008),":[148],"which":[149],"accordance":[152],"theory.":[154],"started":[157,180],"29":[159],"July":[160],"2005":[161],"ended":[163],"when":[164],"it":[165],"reached":[166],"(lowest)":[168],"level":[169],"$4000":[171],"1":[173,182],"2008.":[175],"A":[176],"new":[177],"4-year":[178],"2008":[184],"until":[190],"end":[192],"2010.":[194],"Short-term":[195],"forecasting":[196],"V-statistic":[201],"theoretically":[203],"confirmed":[204],"theory":[207],"advanced":[208],"Hampton":[210],"[1990,":[211],"published":[212],"1989,":[214],"\u2018Analysis":[215],"shipping":[217],"I":[219],"II\u2019,":[221],"Seatrade":[222],"Journal,":[223],"19\u201323.":[224],"Long":[225],"Short":[227],"Shipping":[228,235],"Cycles:":[229],"Rhythms":[231],"Psychology":[233],"Markets,":[236],"Monograph,":[237],"2nd":[238],"ed.":[239],"(Cambridge:":[240],"Cambridge":[241],"Academy":[242],"Transport),":[244],"March,":[245],"p.":[246],"66].":[247]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
