{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2025877611","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","title":"Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar\u2010Ethanol\u2010Oil Nexus in Brazil","display_name":"Bayesian Estimation and Selection of Nonlinear Vector Error Correction Models: The Case of the Sugar\u2010Ethanol\u2010Oil Nexus in Brazil","publication_year":2008,"publication_date":"2008-04-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2025877611","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","mag":"2025877611"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S91754907","display_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","issn_l":"0002-9092","issn":["0002-9092","1467-8276"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5114377091","display_name":"Kelvin Balcombe","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7224-9233","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7224-9233"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71052956","display_name":"University of Reading","ror":"https://ror.org/05v62cm79","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71052956"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kelvin Balcombe","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, University of Reading"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Agricultural and Food Economics, University of Reading","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71052956"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004166114","display_name":"George Rapsomanikis","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1320745970","display_name":"Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","ror":"https://ror.org/00pe0tf51","country_code":"IT","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1286959531","https://openalex.org/I1320745970"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"George Rapsomanikis","raw_affiliation_strings":["Trade and Markets Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Trade and Markets Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1320745970"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3750,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3750},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":21.576,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":183,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99209702,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":97,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"90","issue":"3","first_page":"658","last_page":"668"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11898","display_name":"Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets","score":0.5526999831199646,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11898","display_name":"Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets","score":0.5526999831199646,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.4456000030040741,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12617","display_name":"Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies","score":0.0007999999797903001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2105","display_name":"Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/21","display_name":"Energy"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sugar-prices","display_name":"sugar prices","score":0.8560000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ethanol-prices","display_name":"ethanol prices","score":0.9829999804496765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/oil-prices","display_name":"oil prices","score":0.9739999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cointegration","display_name":"cointegration","score":0.871999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nonlinear-adjustment","display_name":"nonlinear adjustment","score":0.7009999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-model-selection","display_name":"Bayesian model selection","score":0.9340000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/brazilian-sugar-industry","display_name":"Brazilian sugar industry","score":0.5550000071525574}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145162277","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1751675","display_name":"Cointegration","level":2,"score":0.7230551242828369},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64341305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4919225","display_name":"Bivariate analysis","level":2,"score":0.6658658385276794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6520856618881226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.6154733896255493},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148609458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7021281","display_name":"Nexus (standard)","level":2,"score":0.5751981735229492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778146401","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10916362","display_name":"Disequilibrium","level":2,"score":0.5736928582191467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777108408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11002","display_name":"Sugar","level":2,"score":0.570237398147583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134024062","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1401229","display_name":"Error correction model","level":3,"score":0.5600623488426208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111350023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1191869","display_name":"Markov chain Monte Carlo","level":3,"score":0.5410119891166687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5033625960350037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158622935","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q660848","display_name":"Nonlinear system","level":2,"score":0.4610013961791992},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103697071","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39558","display_name":"Gasoline","level":2,"score":0.4177204966545105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3088976740837097},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.24245551228523254},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.21983811259269714},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.18569135665893555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.09453538060188293},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118487528","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161437","display_name":"Ophthalmology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149635348","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q193040","display_name":"Embedded system","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178790620","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11351","display_name":"Organic chemistry","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S91754907","display_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","issn_l":"0002-9092","issn":["0002-9092","1467-8276"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"American Journal of Agricultural Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:90:y:2008:i:3:p:658-668","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2008.01136.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:centaur.reading.ac.uk:8282","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://centaur.reading.ac.uk/8282/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402273","display_name":"CentAUR (University of Reading)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I71052956","host_organization_name":"University of Reading","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71052956"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":27,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1511354816","https://openalex.org/W1545129310","https://openalex.org/W1586782805","https://openalex.org/W1609127433","https://openalex.org/W1913086409","https://openalex.org/W1922851081","https://openalex.org/W1963540486","https://openalex.org/W1968256512","https://openalex.org/W1988377526","https://openalex.org/W1990323191","https://openalex.org/W2010163647","https://openalex.org/W2015784818","https://openalex.org/W2023447826","https://openalex.org/W2027314621","https://openalex.org/W2087677959","https://openalex.org/W2102390267","https://openalex.org/W2115070244","https://openalex.org/W2123593055","https://openalex.org/W2125976648","https://openalex.org/W2140878079","https://openalex.org/W2142897576","https://openalex.org/W2159645531","https://openalex.org/W2168332427","https://openalex.org/W4229805950","https://openalex.org/W4232303126","https://openalex.org/W4252123494","https://openalex.org/W4252438541"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7096831199","https://openalex.org/W2315538932","https://openalex.org/W2942011598","https://openalex.org/W6963583719","https://openalex.org/W981041549","https://openalex.org/W1551760627","https://openalex.org/W2204746407","https://openalex.org/W1975335539","https://openalex.org/W1506014319","https://openalex.org/W1997320526"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Nonlinear":[1],"adjustment":[2,85,97],"toward":[3],"long\u2010run":[4,69],"price":[5,94],"equilibrium":[6],"relationships":[7],"in":[8,12,83],"the":[9,41,68,84],"sugar\u2010ethanol\u2010oil":[10],"nexus":[11],"Brazil":[13],"is":[14],"examined.":[15],"We":[16],"develop":[17],"generalized":[18],"bivariate":[19],"error":[20],"correction":[21],"models":[22,47],"that":[23,67,79],"allow":[24],"for":[25],"cointegration":[26],"between":[27,98],"sugar,":[28],"ethanol,":[29],"and":[30,57,78,89,100],"oil":[31,76,93],"prices,":[32],"where":[33],"dynamic":[34],"adjustments":[35],"are":[36,48,75,81],"potentially":[37],"nonlinear":[38],"functions":[39],"of":[40,46,71,87],"disequilibrium":[42],"errors.":[43],"A":[44],"range":[45],"estimated":[49],"using":[50,59],"Bayesian":[51,60],"Monte":[52],"Carlo":[53],"Markov":[54],"Chain":[55],"algorithms":[56],"compared":[58],"model":[61],"selection":[62],"methods.":[63],"The":[64],"results":[65],"suggest":[66],"drivers":[70],"Brazilian":[72],"sugar":[73,88,101],"prices":[74,77,91],"there":[80],"nonlinearities":[82],"processes":[86],"ethanol":[90,99],"to":[92],"but":[95],"linear":[96],"prices.":[102]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":18},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":16}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}