{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2019452234","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002782026003002","title":"Integrative Complexity Theory and Forecasting International Crises","display_name":"Integrative Complexity Theory and Forecasting International Crises","publication_year":1982,"publication_date":"1982-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2019452234","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002782026003002","mag":"2019452234"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/0022002782026003002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002782026003002","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002782026003002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S20177303","display_name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","issn_l":"0022-0027","issn":["0022-0027","1552-8766"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022777622","display_name":"Theodore D. Raphael","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Theodore D. Raphael","raw_affiliation_strings":["Consultant, Washington, D.C"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Consultant, Washington, D.C","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5022777622"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3650,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3650},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.9123,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":55,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91809861,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"26","issue":"3","first_page":"423","last_page":"450"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.8130000233650208,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.8130000233650208,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10314","display_name":"Social and Intergroup Psychology","score":0.09139999747276306,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14032","display_name":"History and International Relations","score":0.01640000008046627,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crisis-prediction","display_name":"crisis prediction","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-complexity","display_name":"cognitive complexity","score":0.6620000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/foreign-policy-elites","display_name":"foreign policy elites","score":0.7850000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cold-war","display_name":"Cold War","score":0.7009999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/berlin-crisis-1961","display_name":"Berlin Crisis 1961","score":0.8659999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-soviet-relations","display_name":"US-Soviet relations","score":0.8859999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conflict-resolution","display_name":"conflict resolution","score":0.621999979019165}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21711469","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1194317","display_name":"Conflict resolution","level":2,"score":0.49339213967323303},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C34355311","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q166542","display_name":"International relations","level":3,"score":0.4129175543785095},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.37575191259384155},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.36213454604148865},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.32810527086257935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3162018060684204},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.17518863081932068},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.09030899405479431}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/0022002782026003002","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002782026003002","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002782026003002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S20177303","display_name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","issn_l":"0022-0027","issn":["0022-0027","1552-8766"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-2","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Conflict Resolution","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:sae:jocore:v:26:y:1982:i:3:p:423-450","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002782026003002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.6601999998092651,"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":66,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W169492249","https://openalex.org/W197164744","https://openalex.org/W561639301","https://openalex.org/W578972555","https://openalex.org/W596066398","https://openalex.org/W607233489","https://openalex.org/W1498161754","https://openalex.org/W1520204230","https://openalex.org/W1523042090","https://openalex.org/W1581046526","https://openalex.org/W1964725064","https://openalex.org/W1977931406","https://openalex.org/W1979613652","https://openalex.org/W1989134300","https://openalex.org/W1990887133","https://openalex.org/W2003067636","https://openalex.org/W2006720706","https://openalex.org/W2012585674","https://openalex.org/W2014195482","https://openalex.org/W2015637697","https://openalex.org/W2018395835","https://openalex.org/W2018915782","https://openalex.org/W2023369662","https://openalex.org/W2023878414","https://openalex.org/W2026280842","https://openalex.org/W2033012665","https://openalex.org/W2050063300","https://openalex.org/W2053201696","https://openalex.org/W2058459131","https://openalex.org/W2062338580","https://openalex.org/W2072569975","https://openalex.org/W2074373914","https://openalex.org/W2075717728","https://openalex.org/W2077928734","https://openalex.org/W2091544744","https://openalex.org/W2095400166","https://openalex.org/W2095509899","https://openalex.org/W2096834326","https://openalex.org/W2097906538","https://openalex.org/W2098213701","https://openalex.org/W2104477170","https://openalex.org/W2106333595","https://openalex.org/W2114854754","https://openalex.org/W2125105114","https://openalex.org/W2146740789","https://openalex.org/W2186791256","https://openalex.org/W2243351589","https://openalex.org/W2316197409","https://openalex.org/W2316565532","https://openalex.org/W2317714507","https://openalex.org/W2324722857","https://openalex.org/W2327266374","https://openalex.org/W2328023486","https://openalex.org/W2337159104","https://openalex.org/W2464423773","https://openalex.org/W2489246266","https://openalex.org/W2495710695","https://openalex.org/W2734654509","https://openalex.org/W2798326044","https://openalex.org/W2799088120","https://openalex.org/W4250663107","https://openalex.org/W4300079264","https://openalex.org/W4300514418","https://openalex.org/W4321271160","https://openalex.org/W6936065077","https://openalex.org/W6955568703"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6936065077","https://openalex.org/W6942480183","https://openalex.org/W4205697675","https://openalex.org/W2020891713","https://openalex.org/W2125105114","https://openalex.org/W6962635538","https://openalex.org/W2079060131","https://openalex.org/W4205926879","https://openalex.org/W2032269736","https://openalex.org/W4237540562"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Can":[0],"integrative":[1],"complexity":[2,46,87,103,128],"theory":[3],"be":[4,55],"successfully":[5],"employed":[6],"to":[7,31,59,89,107,118],"forecast":[8],"international":[9],"crises?":[10],"To":[11],"answer":[12],"this":[13,15],"question":[14],"study":[16,138],"focuses":[17],"on":[18],"the":[19,23,44,60,76,80,97,111,119,132,143],"conflict-prone":[20],"relationship":[21],"between":[22],"United":[24],"States":[25],"and":[26,49,67],"USSR":[27,50],"in":[28,43,64,102,110,127,134],"Berlin,":[29],"1946":[30,106],"1962.":[32],"Two":[33],"hypotheses":[34],"were":[35,129],"tested.":[36],"Hypothesis":[37,70],"1":[38],"predicted":[39],"that":[40,74],"significant":[41,100,124],"declines":[42,101],"cognitive":[45],"of":[47,62,78,85,142],"U.S.":[48],"foreign":[51],"policy":[52],"elites":[53],"would":[54,82],"exhibited":[56,130],"just":[57],"prior":[58,117],"onset":[61,77],"crises":[63],"June":[65,68],"1948":[66],"1961.":[69],"2":[71],"predicted,":[72],"however,":[73],"following":[75],"crisis,":[79],"participants":[81,133],"exhibit":[83],"patterns":[84],"rising":[86],"leading":[88],"peaceful":[90],"conflict":[91],"resolution.":[92],"The":[93,137],"results":[94],"generally":[95],"supported":[96],"hypotheses.":[98],"First,":[99],"occurred":[104],"from":[105],"1962":[108],"only":[109],"two":[112,120],"periods":[113],"ending":[114],"six":[115],"months":[116],"major":[121],"crises.":[122,136],"Second,":[123],"phase-to-phase":[125],"increases":[126],"by":[131],"both":[135],"provides":[139],"initial":[140],"evidence":[141],"theory's":[144],"utility":[145],"for":[146],"crisis":[147],"forecasting.":[148]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-03T10:50:19.383937","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
