{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2018609922","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181312561237","title":"Fine Distinctions within Cognitive Style Predict Forecasting Accuracy","display_name":"Fine Distinctions within Cognitive Style Predict Forecasting Accuracy","publication_year":2012,"publication_date":"2012-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2018609922","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181312561237","mag":"2018609922"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/1071181312561237","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181312561237","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181312561237","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210176815","display_name":"Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting","issn_l":"0163-5182","issn":["0163-5182","1071-1813","1541-9312","2169-5067"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110881116","display_name":"Joshua Poore","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1343143571","display_name":"Draper Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/04378d909","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joshua C. Poore","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103490471","display_name":"John Regan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1343143571","display_name":"Draper Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/04378d909","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John Regan","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5035506267","display_name":"Sarah M. Miller","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8173-5129","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8173-5129"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1343143571","display_name":"Draper Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/04378d909","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sarah Miller","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022043736","display_name":"Cliff Forlines","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1343143571","display_name":"Draper Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/04378d909","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cliff Forlines","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA, 02139","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014225344","display_name":"John M. Irvine","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-9380","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4294-9380","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7030-3053"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1343143571","display_name":"Draper Laboratory","ror":"https://ror.org/04378d909","country_code":"US","type":"funder","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"John Irvine","raw_affiliation_strings":["The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA 02139"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory 555 Technology Square, Cambridge, MA 02139","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1343143571"],"apc_list":{"value":1500,"currency":"USD","value_usd":1500},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.4971,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.69608189,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"56","issue":"1","first_page":"1089","last_page":"1093"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9077000021934509,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9077000021934509,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11820","display_name":"Learning Styles and Cognitive Differences","score":0.04340000078082085,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.019600000232458115,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-style","display_name":"cognitive style","score":0.9430000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.8960000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/need-for-closure","display_name":"need for closure","score":0.6269999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/conscientiousness","display_name":"conscientiousness","score":0.906000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/individual-differences-in-decision-making","display_name":"individual differences in decision making","score":0.7639999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/factor-structure","display_name":"factor structure","score":0.5199999809265137}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.6259073615074158},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C150681269","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2380771","display_name":"Cognitive style","level":3,"score":0.5633364319801331},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.4898638427257538},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C84976871","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2015673","display_name":"Openness to experience","level":2,"score":0.4849576950073242},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.48344454169273376},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776502983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q690182","display_name":"Contrast (vision)","level":2,"score":0.4722544550895691},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.4366462230682373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778334786","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586270","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.4341539144515991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776445246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1792644","display_name":"Style (visual arts)","level":2,"score":0.41220223903656006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3970620632171631},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3426578938961029},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.2586568593978882},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169760540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207011","display_name":"Neuroscience","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44870925","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37547","display_name":"Astrophysics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/1071181312561237","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181312561237","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181312561237","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210176815","display_name":"Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting","issn_l":"0163-5182","issn":["0163-5182","1071-1813","1541-9312","2169-5067"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","norway-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","score":0.44999998807907104,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306116","display_name":"U.S. Department of the Interior","ror":"https://ror.org/03v0pmy70"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332222","display_name":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","ror":"https://ror.org/047426m28"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320333452","display_name":"Interior Business Center","ror":"https://ror.org/04knezf87"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":9,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1986873490","https://openalex.org/W2054788835","https://openalex.org/W2095084415","https://openalex.org/W2119314959","https://openalex.org/W2162829624","https://openalex.org/W2912944097","https://openalex.org/W3022671937","https://openalex.org/W3153917223","https://openalex.org/W4236213745"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2148104117","https://openalex.org/W2778591393","https://openalex.org/W4386934221","https://openalex.org/W3207179321","https://openalex.org/W3156681450","https://openalex.org/W4322758042","https://openalex.org/W7099703360","https://openalex.org/W2009778218","https://openalex.org/W2149618074","https://openalex.org/W2088452154"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Leveraging":[0],"data":[1,21],"from":[2],"over":[3],"1,000":[4],"users":[5],"in":[6,29,41,46,65,164,214,239],"the":[7,23,34,138,205,225,232],"System":[8],"for":[9,62,196],"Prediction,":[10],"Aggregation,":[11],"Display":[12],"and":[13,33,44,59,73,94,113,168,198,217,237,241],"Elicitation":[14],"(SPADE)":[15],"research":[16,52,81,121],"program,":[17],"we":[18,134],"present":[19],"preliminary":[20],"on":[22,220],"factor":[24,123],"structure":[25],"of":[26,36,111,145],"individual":[27],"variation":[28],"decision":[30],"making":[31,47],"ability":[32],"associations":[35],"this":[37],"variance":[38,64,155,183],"with":[39,209],"errors":[40,213,238],"cognitive":[42,235],"reasoning":[43,216,240],"accuracy":[45],"socio-political":[48],"forecasts.":[49],"Generally,":[50],"prior":[51],"has":[53],"identified":[54],"two":[55],"factors,":[56],"or":[57],"styles\u2014intuitive":[58],"analytic\u2014that":[60],"account":[61],"significant":[63],"how":[66],"individuals":[67],"reach":[68],"solutions":[69],"to":[70,89,96,106,115,157,159,170,185,187,211],"complex":[71,165],"numerical":[72],"logical":[74,215],"problems.":[75,117],"Though":[76],"sometimes":[77],"named":[78],"differently":[79],"across":[80],"programs,":[82],"an":[83,100],"intuitive":[84],"style":[85,102,147],"is":[86,103],"a":[87,104,119,161,194],"tendency":[88,105,207],"use":[90],"instincts,":[91],"experiential":[92],"knowledge,":[93],"intuition":[95],"solve":[97,188],"problems,":[98],"where":[99],"analytic":[101,124,146],"apply":[107],"formal":[108],"logic,":[109],"methods":[110],"inquiry":[112],"theory":[114],"confront":[116],"Within":[118],"large":[120],"sample,":[122],"techniques":[125],"define":[126],"finer":[127],"distinctions":[128,136],"among":[129],"these":[130],"styles.":[131],"In":[132,173],"particular,":[133],"find":[135],"within":[137],"analytical":[139],"style,":[140],"such":[141],"that":[142,190,204],"certain":[143],"measures":[144,176],"(REI;":[148],"Norris,":[149],"Pacini,":[150],"&":[151],"Epstein,":[152],"1998)":[153],"capture":[154,182],"related":[156,184],"tendencies":[158,186],"express":[160],"deep":[162],"interest":[163],"problem":[166],"solving":[167],"openness":[169],"new":[171],"information.":[172],"contrast,":[174],"other":[175],"(CSI;":[177],"Allinson":[178],"et":[179],"al.,":[180],"1996)":[181],"problems":[189],"are":[191],"driven":[192],"by":[193],"need":[195],"closure":[197],"conscientiousness.":[199],"Subsequent":[200],"correlation":[201],"analysis":[202],"suggests":[203],"latter":[206],"covaries":[208],"susceptibility":[210],"commit":[212],"poor":[218],"performance":[219],"socio-economic":[221],"forecasts":[222],"elicited":[223],"through":[224,244],"iSPADE":[226],"system.":[227],"Future":[228],"work":[229],"will":[230],"clarify":[231],"relationship":[233],"between":[234],"styles":[236],"forecasting":[242],"behavior":[243],"multi-level":[245],"modeling":[246],"techniques.":[247]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}