{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2017316384","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","title":"Editorial: Towards a World of 2\u20136 Billion Well-Educated and Therefore Healthy and Wealthy People","display_name":"Editorial: Towards a World of 2\u20136 Billion Well-Educated and Therefore Healthy and Wealthy People","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-09-28","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2017316384","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","mag":"2017316384"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"editorial","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5066664298","display_name":"Wolfgang Lutz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5141-3847"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I102248843","display_name":"Vienna University of Economics and Business","ror":"https://ror.org/03yn8s215","country_code":"AT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I102248843"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1317774081","display_name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","ror":"https://ror.org/02wfhk785","country_code":"AT","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I138211613","display_name":"Austrian Academy of Sciences","ror":"https://ror.org/03anc3s24","country_code":"AT","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I138211613"]}],"countries":["AT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Wolfgang Lutz","raw_affiliation_strings":["International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austrian Academy of Sciences Vienna and Vienna University of Economics and Business"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg Austrian Academy of Sciences Vienna and Vienna University of Economics and Business","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102248843","https://openalex.org/I1317774081","https://openalex.org/I138211613"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5066664298"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I102248843","https://openalex.org/I1317774081","https://openalex.org/I138211613"],"apc_list":{"value":2621,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":3456},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":16,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"172","issue":"4","first_page":"701","last_page":"705"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.7788000106811523,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.7788000106811523,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10393","display_name":"Economic Growth and Productivity","score":0.1843000054359436,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14019","display_name":"Socioeconomic and Demographic Analysis","score":0.004100000020116568,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2308","display_name":"Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-trends-in-education","display_name":"global trends in education","score":0.593999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-capital","display_name":"human capital","score":0.9120000004768372},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-projections","display_name":"population projections","score":0.7760000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/educational-attainment","display_name":"educational attainment","score":0.7210000157356262},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/migration","display_name":"migration","score":0.3070000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/world-population-growth","display_name":"global population growth","score":0.382999986410141},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-growth","display_name":"economic growth","score":0.35499998927116394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/global-health","display_name":"global health","score":0.40299999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/well-being","display_name":"well-being","score":0.6359999775886536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demographic-uncertainty","display_name":"demographic uncertainty","score":0.33399999141693115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/education-and-mortality","display_name":"education and mortality","score":0.3529999852180481},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/school-enrolment","display_name":"school enrolment","score":0.4440000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/school-dropout","display_name":"school dropout","score":0.33500000834465027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/school-absenteeism","display_name":"school absenteeism","score":0.33000001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/school-failure-rates","display_name":"school failure rates","score":0.32899999618530273}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775899829","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109007","display_name":"Globe","level":2,"score":0.6501267552375793},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5642539262771606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776943663","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q165687","display_name":"Human capital","level":2,"score":0.4488140940666199},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47768531","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127188","display_name":"Development economics","level":1,"score":0.3935416042804718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.3582392632961273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C50522688","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189833","display_name":"Economic growth","level":1,"score":0.3457055985927582},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.29550957679748535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.2715081572532654},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.25017642974853516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2403508722782135},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169760540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207011","display_name":"Neuroscience","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2009.00612.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:research.wu.ac.at:openaire_cris_publications/f6e5aa56-d305-4c49-9cca-d4d22095b540","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://research.wu.ac.at/de/publications/f6e5aa56-d305-4c49-9cca-d4d22095b540","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S7407055123","display_name":"WU Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Lutz, W 2009, 'Editorial: Towards a world of 2\u20136 billion well-educated and therefore healthy and wealthy people', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), vol. 172, no. 4, pp. 701 - 705.","raw_type":"info:eu-repo/semantics/article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pure.iiasa.ac.at:8812","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/8812/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401423","display_name":"IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1317774081","host_organization_name":"International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317774081"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:172:y:2009:i:4:p:701-705","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00612.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":12,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W583075399","https://openalex.org/W1510353559","https://openalex.org/W1625014666","https://openalex.org/W1995610512","https://openalex.org/W2010294065","https://openalex.org/W2044779402","https://openalex.org/W2073244138","https://openalex.org/W2106090689","https://openalex.org/W2149437926","https://openalex.org/W2302770089","https://openalex.org/W6675773449","https://openalex.org/W6698232012"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W645603919","https://openalex.org/W2793682263","https://openalex.org/W7016337073","https://openalex.org/W2184091310","https://openalex.org/W2299306776","https://openalex.org/W3042844152","https://openalex.org/W4301670712","https://openalex.org/W189798790","https://openalex.org/W4402832480","https://openalex.org/W1976713466"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0,88,252,313,850,975,1585,2174],"times":[1],"of":[2,24,27,44,61,107,148,152,223,316,334,341,353,382,418,430,458,532,560,568,580,636,657,666,714,721,745,770,802,825,900,909,931,972,1018,1090,1094,1134,1141,1157,1165,1175,1190,1245,1269,1282,1299,1305,1311,1315,1341,1352,1367,1389,1404,1423,1432,1434,1452,1563,1577,1617,1647,1664,1695,1702,1715,1760,1809,1836,1862,1935,1939,1981,1996,2002,2041,2069,2086,2122,2133,2177],"economic":[3,131,640,722,771],"crisis":[4],"and":[5,85,99,130,206,276,349,358,528,558,565,602,679,702,708,756,784,829,847,862,884,921,1081,1183,1204,1220,1261,1323,1406,1426,1467,1515,1540,1556,1582,1600,1620,1623,1656,1712,1901,1914,2034,2127,2148,2151,2182,2191,2204,2226,2240],"increasing":[6,1391],"food":[7],"insecurity":[8],"coupled":[9],"with":[10,123,395,465,599,607,788,882,903,987,1008,1098,1239,1398,1491,1666,1675,1908,2096,2126,2183],"continued":[11,2221],"rapid":[12,710],"population":[13,108,291,311,344,433,467,524,698,881,911,922,1020,1050,1092,1142,1168,1257,1454,1478,1512,1528,1635,1770,1814,1871,1896,1923,2014,2040,2109,2154],"growth":[14,468,923,1021,1051],"in":[15,58,73,82,145,198,202,250,300,372,410,426,448,492,535,676,712,729,854,966,968,1004,1022,1045,1379,1412,1430,1479,1529,1612,1685,1705,1719,1790,1821,1826,1844,1877,1882,1894,1912,1961,2004,2106,2155,2186,2202,2213,2237],"the":[16,22,31,33,42,59,66,104,120,146,149,158,191,194,259,272,281,288,295,301,306,314,320,331,339,342,365,376,380,407,421,427,431,459,501,508,539,577,634,644,664,689,695,715,743,746,767,794,808,822,831,852,860,871,875,880,892,927,929,933,935,969,1015,1023,1075,1078,1104,1109,1125,1127,1131,1149,1154,1166,1171,1187,1201,1205,1280,1302,1309,1350,1361,1384,1402,1428,1444,1449,1458,1476,1492,1510,1532,1536,1571,1575,1578,1586,1608,1618,1627,1631,1650,1696,1700,1703,1710,1716,1725,1741,1791,1807,1812,1830,1847,1857,1865,1869,1905,1921,1937,1945,1993,2012,2025,2052,2082,2117,2130,2156,2171,2230,2234],"poor":[17],"countries,":[18,815],"as":[19,21,77,455,482,500,704,955,957,1106,1455,1731,1766,1864,2018,2020,2064],"well":[20,956],"prospect":[23],"dramatic":[25],"consequences":[26,1429,2085,2132],"climate":[28,2088,2134,2241],"change":[29,2242],"around":[30,65,154,1243,2229],"globe,":[32],"future":[34,71,122,200,211,298,321,1019,1140,1150,1188,1304,1351,1403,1946],"looks":[35],"rather":[36,277],"bleak":[37],"to":[38,94,103,232,279,326,360,471,477,514,538,627,688,799,821,889,944,953,960,1000,1010,1052,1112,1418,1486,1517,1558,1574,1637,1672,1744,1818,1874,1927,1951,1992,2009,2047,2081,2093,2129,2142,2200],"many":[39,127,165,180,227,242,1042],"people.":[40,741],"Hence":[41],"title":[43],"this":[45,730,1063,1287,1324,1520,2139,2214],"editorial":[46],"may":[47],"sound":[48],"oddly":[49],"optimistic.":[50],"But":[51,463,919,1750],"there":[52,1504],"is":[53,216,235,294,434,506,592,686,766,781,878,887,912,998,1088,1114,1169,1193,1293,1349,1358,1505,1649,1763,1838,1898,2006,2022,2044,2076,2115],"very":[54,174,473,731,1196,1290,2045,2218],"good":[55,175,237,876],"news":[56,877],"hidden":[57],"statistics":[60],"recent":[62],"education":[63,249,385,389,399,419,429,451,461,543,713,780,792,817,826,864,886,920,930,979,992,1006,1035,1084,1113,1136,2030,2114,2228],"trends":[64,106,115,299,1678,1743],"world":[67,343,523,910,1049,1105,1167,1453,1477,1511,1527,1634,1759,1813,1870,1895,1922,2013,2039,2054,2099,2153,2231],"which":[68,591,735,941,1746],"imply":[69,109],"significant":[70,424,474,680,1343,1909],"improvements":[72,81,447,711,1911,2181],"human":[74,150,317,521,615,637,683,1191],"capital":[75,318,616,638],"and,":[76,837,1972],"a":[78,173,236,247,456,515,898,906,1038,1053,1091,1107,1195,1255,1265,1297,1335,1387,1483,1487,1643,1660,1682,1758,1767,1780,1890,1931,1953,2037,2065,2097,2107,2143,2175],"consequence,":[79],"likely":[80,888,2008,2046],"global":[83,159,192,542,1306,1769,1799,1999],"health":[84,846,1913,1956,2033],"material":[86],"well-being.":[87],"what":[89,96,1184,1231,2073],"follows":[90],"I":[91],"shall":[92,1373],"try":[93,1417],"summarize":[95],"new":[97,556,612,747],"statistical":[98,631,727],"demographic":[100,578,973],"models":[101,598],"applied":[102],"long-term":[105,310,1132,1303,1344,1644,1742,1866,1892],"for":[110,177,218,239,345,605,619,639,682,813,1041,1047,1086,1249,1275,1461,1475,1589,1598,2124,2223],"our":[111],"common":[112],"future.":[113,517],"Demographic":[114],"can":[116,512,1415,1752,1902,1948,2159],"be":[117,184,797,1037,1130,1186,1729,1775,1942,1949,1966,2016,2048,2160,2201],"forecast":[118],"into":[119,1124,1724],"longer-term":[121],"lower":[124,268,325,934,945,1225,1713,1979,2108],"uncertainty":[125,196,296,1348,1445,1596],"than":[126,138,420,1163,1258,1840,1958,1969,2051,2105],"other":[128,1385],"social":[129],"trends,":[132],"but":[133,1044,1788],"they":[134,692,1964],"are":[135,168,274,330,553,866,924,942,963,1014,1747,2168,2211],"less":[136,835,1024],"predictable":[137],"most":[139,1079,1082,1694,2058,2119],"geobiophysical":[140],"trends.":[141],"The":[142,214,518,1120,1138,1355,1560,2208],"reason":[143],"lies":[144,197],"length":[147],"lifespan":[151],"currently":[153],"70":[155],"years":[156,187,348,379,527,656,701,868],"on":[157,287,309,555,595,614,659,827,870,981,1148,1829,2032,2165],"average.":[160],"If":[161,1798,1854],"we":[162,171,255,1122,1372,1751,1855],"know":[163,1321,1737],"how":[164,179,226,241],"10-year-old":[166],"girls":[167],"alive":[169,185],"today,":[170],"have":[172,230,246,267,368,400,414,470,496,622,844,980,993,1061,1209,1223,1952,1978,2189],"basis":[176,238,744],"projecting":[178,219,240],"60-year-old":[181,243],"women":[182,977],"will":[183,245,469,504,793,1129,1144,1185,1513,1965,2015,2103,2162],"50":[186],"from":[188,285,324,951,1448,1482,1670,1699,1709,1754],"now.":[189],"On":[190,742],"level":[193,352,531,646,668,1174,1189,1292,1653,1808,2001],"only":[195,387,693,785,994,1214,1270,1416,1604,1778,2007],"unexpected":[199],"changes":[201],"mortality.":[203],"For":[204,290,1103],"national":[205],"regional":[207],"projections,":[208,319,1595],"uncertainties":[209,283,1400,1425],"about":[210,297,1115,1401,1740,2017],"migration":[212],"matter.":[213],"same":[215,1906],"true":[217],"certain":[220],"stable":[221,1211],"properties":[222],"people:":[224],"knowing":[225],"30-year-old":[228],"men":[229,244],"been":[231,625,649,834,1234,1328,1842],"college":[233,248],"today":[234],"2040.":[251],"doing":[253],"so":[254,671,1607],"also":[256,623,736,810,1145,1499,1789],"must":[257,1728],"consider":[258],"fact":[260,690],"that":[261,304,364,511,571,654,691,762,777,879,1002,1032,1089,1314,1371,1503,1509,1569,1679,1720,1757,1889,2029,2167,2210,2220],"generally":[262],"more":[263,655,840,1054,1162,1748,2075,2101],"highly":[264,841,913,2066],"educated":[265,740,842,1968,1976,2019,2147],"people":[266,383,606,843,1977,2063,2102],"mortality":[269,603,1601,1624,1787,2193],"rates.":[270],"Whereas":[271,374,1200,1693],"\u2018stocks\u2019":[273],"inert":[275],"easy":[278],"project,":[280],"projection":[282],"come":[284,800],"assumptions":[286],"\u2018flows\u2019.":[289],"projections":[292,557,1414,1451,1498,1544,1636],"it":[293,647,997,2090],"birth":[302,858],"rates":[303,323,441,480,491,604,2188],"has":[305,390,648,673,833,1029,1230,1232,1326,1841,2031],"greatest":[307],"effect":[308,1133,2028],"size.":[312],"case":[315],"transition":[322,1408,2141],"higher":[327,398,416,662,928,1839],"educational":[328,354,533,569,609,764,939,2180],"status":[329,1957],"main":[332],"source":[333],"uncertainty.":[335],"Fig.":[336,1437,1564,1686],"1":[337,1116],"shows":[338,363,1566],"evolution":[340],"ages":[346],"15":[347,526],"above":[350,529,1296],"by":[351,530,562,575,749,897,1065,1101,1118,1279,1360,1457,1772],"attainment":[355,534,570,765],"since":[356,405,617],"1970":[357,618],"projected":[359],"2050.":[361,1102,1119],"It":[362,1333],"past":[366,377,460,1848],"decades":[367,895,1849],"seen":[369],"great":[370],"progress":[371,1003],"education.":[373,1997],"over":[375,891,1846,2170],"40":[378],"number":[381,2176],"without":[384,978,1395,2205],"or":[386,397,1313,1690,2137],"primary":[388,779,2225],"remained":[391],"roughly":[392,1804],"constant,":[393],"those":[394,986],"secondary":[396,791,883,991,1034,2227],"increased":[401,1786],"almost":[402,838,1973],"fourfold.":[403],"And,":[404,2112],"throughout":[406],"world\u2014and":[408],"particularly":[409,964],"developing":[411],"countries\u2014the":[412],"young":[413,716],"much":[415,1224,1376,1661,1954,2144],"levels":[417,567,1152,1213,1241,1980],"old,":[422],"further":[423,444,907,1121,1377,1910],"increases":[425],"average":[428,449,660,982,1859,2053],"adult":[432,450,697,717],"virtually":[435,1394],"preprogrammed.":[436],"Even":[437,1272],"if":[438,2011],"school":[439,487],"enrolment":[440,479,490],"do":[442,1319],"not":[443,476,674,724,782,925,1320,1327,1374,1777,2138],"increase,":[445],"such":[446,1399,1919,2036],"would":[452,1816,1872,1924,1941,2060],"take":[453],"place":[454],"consequence":[457],"expansion.":[462],"countries":[464,495,621,796,967,1208,2179],"high":[466,1488],"make":[472],"efforts":[475,2222],"see":[478,1375,1535,2061],"decline":[481,1518,1817,1873,1893],"increasingly":[483],"larger":[484],"cohorts":[485],"enter":[486],"age.":[488,1986],"Recently,":[489],"some":[493],"African":[494,2178],"actually":[497],"declined":[498],"which,":[499],"following":[502],"discussion":[503,1357],"show,":[505],"probably":[507,2116],"worst":[509],"thing":[510],"happen":[513,1903],"country\u2019s":[516],"world\u2019s":[519],"growing":[520],"capital:":[522],"aged":[525,699],"1970\u20132050,":[536],"according":[537],"mildly":[540],"optimistic":[541,1080],"trend":[544],"scenario":[545,1533],"(source,":[546],"KC":[547,587,1057],"et":[548,584,588,916,1058,1523,1851],"al.":[549,1059],"(2008))":[550],"These":[551,611,938,1497,1722,1884],"data":[552,613,670,748,1248],"based":[554,594,790],"reconstructions":[559],"populations":[561,582],"age,":[563],"sex":[564],"four":[566,894],"were":[572,1602],"recently":[573,624,1030,1233],"produced":[574],"using":[576],"method":[579],"multistate":[581],"(Lutz":[583,915,1522,1581,1850],"al.,":[585,589,917,1524,1852],"2007;":[586],"2008),":[590],"essentially":[593],"Markov":[596],"chain":[597],"different":[600,608,1615],"fertility":[601,936,1073,1151,1212,1240,1267,1409,1599,1622,1645,1652,1668,1800,1835,1861,1933,2000,2187],"status.":[610],"120":[620,1691],"used":[626],"resolve":[628],"an":[629,1472,1506],"old":[630],"puzzle":[632],"concerning":[633],"importance":[635,1995],"growth.":[641,772],"Although":[642,1917],"at":[643,857,988,1153,1495,1614,1626,1688,1806,1904,1983],"individual":[645],"established":[650],"beyond":[651],"any":[652,1984],"doubt":[653],"schooling":[658],"bring":[661],"income,":[663],"analysis":[665],"country":[667],"panel":[669],"far":[672],"resulted":[675],"consistently":[677],"positive":[678,823],"coefficients":[681],"capital.":[684],"This":[685],"due":[687,943,1111],"considered":[694],"entire":[696],"25":[700],"older":[703],"one":[705,1369],"age":[706,733,751,1928],"group":[707],"therefore":[709,2149],"population\u2014an":[718],"important":[719,1347,2120],"driver":[720,769],"growth\u2014did":[723],"produce":[725],"enough":[726,1330],"signals":[728],"broad":[732],"group,":[734],"includes":[737],"elderly,":[738,1960],"poorly":[739,1197],"5-year":[750],"groups,":[752],"Lutz,":[753],"Crespo":[754],"Cuaresma":[755],"Sanderson":[757,1466],"(2008)":[758,1028,1060,1658],"could":[759],"conclusively":[760],"show":[761,811,1264,1471],"indeed":[763],"key":[768,1016],"Moreover,":[773],"their":[774,803,1413],"results":[775,809,1502],"indicate":[776],"universal":[778,1033,2224],"enough,":[783],"when":[786,1068],"combined":[787,1674],"broadly":[789],"poorest":[795],"able":[798],"out":[801],"poverty":[804],"traps.":[805],"Not":[806],"surprisingly,":[807],"that,":[812,1067,2095],"industrialized":[814],"tertiary":[816,885],"matters":[818,2074],"most.":[819],"As":[820,2080],"implications":[824],"longevity":[828,1405],"health,":[830],"literature":[832],"ambiguous":[836],"universally,":[839,1974],"better":[845,958,1955,1967,1975,2049,2146],"live":[848],"longer.":[849],"Europe":[851,1222,1845,2021],"differences":[853],"life":[855,1353,1381,1392,1676,1831,1915],"expectancies":[856],"between":[859,1077,1363],"highest":[861],"lowest":[863,1651],"groups":[865],"5\u201310":[867],"depending":[869,1828],"country.":[872],"Hence,":[873,996],"again,":[874,2113],"double":[890],"coming":[893,2172],"(increasing":[896],"factor":[899],"7":[901],"compared":[902,1097],"1970)":[904],"whereas":[905,985,1383],"doubling":[908],"unlikely":[914],"1997).":[918],"independent:":[926],"women,":[932],"rate.":[937],"differentials,":[940],"desired":[946],"family":[947,961,1011],"size":[948,1093,1143,1771,1815,1897],"(a":[949],"move":[950],"\u2018quantity\u2019":[952],"\u2018quality\u2019)":[954],"access":[959,1009],"planning,":[962],"pronounced":[965],"early":[970],"phases":[971],"transition.":[974],"Ethiopia":[976],"six":[983],"children,":[984],"least":[989],"junior":[990],"two.":[995],"fair":[999,1420],"say":[1001],"female":[1005],"together":[1007],"planning":[1012],"services":[1013],"determinants":[1017],"developed":[1025],"countries.":[1026],"Cohen":[1027],"argued":[1031],"should":[1036,2232],"policy":[1039],"priority":[1040,2236],"reasons":[1043],"particular":[1046,1962],"limiting":[1048],"sustainable":[1055,1768],"level.":[1056],"illustrated":[1062],"numerically":[1064],"showing":[1066],"assuming":[1069],"otherwise":[1070],"identical":[1071],"education-specific":[1072],"rates,":[1074],"difference":[1076,1110],"pessimistic":[1083],"scenarios":[1085,1568,1665,1697,1723,1886,1920],"Africa":[1087],"1.8":[1095],"billion":[1096,1100,1117,1490,1820,1825,1876,1881,2043],"2.4":[1099],"whole,":[1108],"go":[1123],"future,":[1126],"greater":[1128],"near-term":[1135],"efforts.":[1137],"very-long-term":[1139],"crucially":[1146],"depend":[1147,2164],"low":[1155,1237,1291,1484,1796],"end":[1156,1576],"today\u2019s":[1158,1959,1970],"distribution.":[1159],"Currently,":[1160],"already":[1161],"half":[1164,1244],"below":[1170,1216],"so-called":[1172],"replacement":[1173],"two":[1176,1364],"surviving":[1177],"children":[1178],"per":[1179,2077],"woman":[1180],"(Wilson,":[1181],"2004)":[1182,1641],"reproduction":[1192,1307],"still":[1194,1294],"understood":[1198],"question.":[1199],"UK,":[1202],"France":[1203],"Nordic":[1206],"European":[1207,1860],"quite":[1210],"slightly":[1215],"replacement,":[1217],"central,":[1218],"eastern":[1219],"southern":[1221],"levels.":[1226,1629],"And":[1227,2057],"East":[1228],"Asia":[1229],"labelled":[1235],"\u2018ultra":[1236],"fertility\u2019":[1238],"often":[1242],"replacement.":[1246,1300],"New":[1247],"Shanghai":[1250],"(with":[1251],"20":[1252],"million":[1253],"representing":[1254],"bigger":[1256],"Sweden,":[1259],"Norway":[1260],"Finland":[1262],"together)":[1263],"total":[1266,1932],"rate":[1268,1646,1934],"0.6.":[1271],"after":[1273,1801],"adjusting":[1274],"possible":[1276,1435],"distortions":[1277],"caused":[1278],"postponement":[1281],"childbearing":[1283],"(the":[1284],"\u2018tempo\u2019":[1285],"effect)":[1286],"(now":[1288],"voluntarily)":[1289],"hardly":[1295],"third":[1298],"Will":[1301],"follow":[1308],"pattern":[1310],"Scandinavia":[1312],"Shanghai?":[1316],"We":[1317,1735],"simply":[1318,1736],"yet":[1322],"topic":[1325],"given":[1329,1985],"research":[1331,1338],"attention.":[1332],"deserves":[1334],"serious":[1336],"interdisciplinary":[1337],"effort":[1339],"because":[1340,1963],"its":[1342,1440],"consequences.":[1345],"Another":[1346],"expectancy.":[1354,1916],"current":[1356,1858],"dominated":[1359],"conflict":[1362],"opposing":[1365],"schools":[1366],"thinking:":[1368],"argues":[1370],"increase":[1378],"maximum":[1380,1683],"expectancy,":[1382],"paints":[1386],"picture":[1388],"ever":[1390],"expectancy":[1393,1677,1832],"limit.":[1396],"Faced":[1397],"post-demographic":[1407],"levels,":[1410],"statisticians":[1411],"provide":[1419],"numerical":[1421],"representations":[1422],"these":[1424,1755],"illustrate":[1427],"terms":[1431],"distributions":[1433],"outcomes.":[1436],"2":[1438,1565],"(on":[1439],"left-hand":[1441],"side)":[1442],"depicts":[1443],"distribution":[1446,1619,1704],"resulting":[1447],"stochastic":[1450],"published":[1456],"International":[1459,1587],"Institute":[1460,1588],"Applied":[1462,1590],"Systems":[1463,1591],"Analysis":[1464,1592],"(Lutz,":[1465],"Scherbov,":[1468,1583],"2008).":[1469,1584],"They":[1470],"80%":[1473],"range":[1474,1663],"2100":[1480,1546],"going":[1481],"6.2":[1485],"11.1":[1489],"median":[1493,1701],"lying":[1494],"8.4.":[1496],"confirm":[1500],"earlier":[1501],"80\u201385%":[1507],"chance":[1508],"peak":[1514],"start":[1516,1611,1698],"during":[1519],"century":[1521,1580,1727,2158],"2001).":[1525],"Total":[1526],"billions":[1530],"(for":[1531],"labels,":[1534],"text;":[1537],"source,":[1538],"Lutz":[1539,1655],"Scherbov":[1541,1657],"(2008)):":[1542],"probabilistic":[1543,1593],"until":[1545,1605],"(,":[1547],"90%":[1548],"interval;":[1549,1552],",":[1550],"60%":[1551],"\u25a0,":[1553],"20%":[1554],"interval)":[1555],"extensions":[1557],"2200":[1559,1822,1878],"right-hand":[1561],"side":[1562],"selected":[1567],"extend":[1570],"time":[1572,1907],"horizon":[1573],"22nd":[1579,1726,2157],"long-range":[1594],"ranges":[1597],"defined":[1603],"2080,":[1606,1706],"additional":[1609],"lines":[1610],"2080":[1613,1802,2005],"points":[1616],"keep":[1621],"constant":[1625,1805],"indicated":[1628],"Unlike":[1630],"United":[1632],"Nations":[1633],"2300":[1638],"(United":[1639],"Nations,":[1640],"where":[1642],"1.85":[1648],"considered,":[1654],"presented":[1659],"broader":[1662],"long-run":[1667],"ranging":[1669],"1.0":[1671],"2.5":[1673],"either":[1680],"reach":[1681],"(LEMAX":[1684],"2)":[1687],"90":[1689],"years.":[1692],"others":[1707],"depart":[1708],"upper":[1711],"ends":[1714],"95%":[1717],"interval":[1718],"year.":[1721],"viewed":[1730],"hypothetical":[1732],"\u2018if\u2013then\u2019":[1733],"calculations.":[1734],"too":[1738],"little":[1739],"judge":[1745],"likely.":[1749],"conclude":[1753],"calculations":[1756],"(3\u20134)":[1761],"billion\u2014which":[1762],"sometimes":[1764],"stated":[1765],"prominent":[1773],"ecologists\u2014can":[1774],"reached":[1776],"through":[1779,1785,1794],"Malthusian":[1781],"\u2018positive":[1782],"check\u2019":[1783],"operating":[1784],"benign":[1792,2140],"way":[1793],"voluntarily":[1795],"fertility.":[1797],"stayed":[1803],"1.7,":[1810],"then":[1811,1868],"(4.9\u20135.8)":[1819],"(and":[1823,1879],"(2.4\u20133.5)":[1824],"2300)":[1827],"chosen.":[1833],"A":[1834,1998],"1.7":[1837,1936],"observed":[1843],"2003).":[1853],"choose":[1856],"1.5":[1863],"level,":[1867],"(3.5\u20134.4)":[1875],"(1.1\u20131.7)":[1880],"2300).":[1883],"exploratory":[1885],"teach":[1887],"us":[1888,1990],"substantial":[1891],"entirely":[1899],"feasible":[1900],"under":[1918,1930],"clearly":[1925,2219],"continue":[1926],"(actually":[1929],"speed":[1938],"ageing":[1940],"relatively":[1943],"slow),":[1944],"elderly":[1947,1971],"expected":[1950,2083],"disability":[1982],"This,":[1987],"finally,":[1988],"brings":[1989],"back":[1991],"overriding":[1994,2235],"1.5\u20131.7":[2003],"materialize":[2010],"today.":[2023,2056],"Given":[2024],"strong":[2026],"causal":[2027],"wealth,":[2035],"well-educated":[2038],"(2\u20136)":[2042],"off":[2050],"citizen":[2055],"ecologists":[2059],"fewer":[2062],"welcome":[2067],"relief":[2068],"environmental":[2070],"pressures,":[2071],"although":[2072],"capita":[2078],"consumption.":[2079],"negative":[2084],"unavoidable":[2087],"change,":[2089],"seems":[2091],"plausible":[2092],"assume":[2094],"large":[2098],"population,":[2100],"suffer":[2104],"density":[2110],"world.":[2111],"single":[2118],"determinant":[2121],"empowerment":[2123],"coping":[2125],"adapting":[2128],"dangerous":[2131],"change.":[2135],"Whether":[2136],"smaller,":[2145],"healthier":[2150],"wealthier":[2152],"achieved":[2161],"largely":[2163],"actions":[2166],"taken":[2169],"decades.":[2173],"them":[2184],"declines":[2185],"stalled":[2190],"child":[2192],"increased.":[2194],"Meanwhile,":[2195],"international":[2196,2238],"development":[2197,2239],"policies":[2198],"seem":[2199],"disarray":[2203],"clear":[2206],"orientation.":[2207],"considerations":[2209],"summarized":[2212],"short":[2215],"note":[2216],"suggest":[2217],"become":[2233],"adaptation":[2243],"policies.":[2244]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-24T07:57:37.273135","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}