{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2014941907","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","title":"Informational efficiency of the EU ETS market \u2013 a study of price predictability and profitable trading","display_name":"Informational efficiency of the EU ETS market \u2013 a study of price predictability and profitable trading","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-12-19","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2014941907","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","mag":"2014941907"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764883386","display_name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy","issn_l":"2160-6544","issn":["2160-6544","2160-6552"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5074046552","display_name":"Piia Aatola","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210101707","display_name":"VATT Institute for Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/017qjec28","country_code":"FI","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210101707"]}],"countries":["FI"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Piia Aatola","raw_affiliation_strings":["Government Institute for Economic Research, VATT, P.O. Box 1279, FI-00101Helsinki, Finland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Government Institute for Economic Research, VATT, P.O. Box 1279, FI-00101Helsinki, Finland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210101707"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5029842531","display_name":"Kimmo Ollikka","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5414-6994","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5414-6994"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210101707","display_name":"VATT Institute for Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/017qjec28","country_code":"FI","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210101707"]}],"countries":["FI"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kimmo Ollikka","raw_affiliation_strings":["Government Institute for Economic Research, VATT, P.O. Box 1279, FI-00101Helsinki, Finland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Government Institute for Economic Research, VATT, P.O. Box 1279, FI-00101Helsinki, Finland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210101707"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014904941","display_name":"Markku Ollikainen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3333-4683","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3333-4683"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I133731052","display_name":"University of Helsinki","ror":"https://ror.org/040af2s02","country_code":"FI","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I133731052"]}],"countries":["FI"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Markku Ollikainen","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, FIN-00014Helsinki, Finland"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics and Management, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, FIN-00014Helsinki, Finland","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I133731052"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5074046552"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210101707"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.0824,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":16,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.9495476,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"3","issue":"1","first_page":"92","last_page":"123"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9843999743461609,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.9843999743461609,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11326","display_name":"Stock Market Forecasting Methods","score":0.008899999782443047,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.002099999925121665,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/eu-emissions-trading-system","display_name":"EU Emissions Trading System","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/informational-efficiency","display_name":"information efficiency","score":0.9070000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/price-predictability","display_name":"price predictability","score":0.9850000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trading-simulation","display_name":"trading simulation","score":0.5879999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trading-rules","display_name":"trading rules","score":0.5899999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/technical-analysis","display_name":"technical analysis","score":0.9139999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/price-forecasting","display_name":"price forecasting","score":0.5699999928474426},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emissions-trading","display_name":"emissions trading","score":0.5540000200271606}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197640229","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2534066","display_name":"Predictability","level":2,"score":0.8194324970245361},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C100405246","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8348417","display_name":"Emissions trading","level":3,"score":0.7333709001541138},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779268580","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3447087","display_name":"Allowance (engineering)","level":2,"score":0.6744817495346069},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C131562839","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1574928","display_name":"Trading strategy","level":2,"score":0.633682131767273},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C158876240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17105131","display_name":"Pairs trade","level":4,"score":0.5909571647644043},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5602317452430725},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78508483","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q139445","display_name":"Algorithmic trading","level":2,"score":0.5536502003669739},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C172428447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q438711","display_name":"Alternative trading system","level":3,"score":0.5383537411689758},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5239170789718628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.4806188941001892},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2985330422","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q724931","display_name":"Market efficiency","level":2,"score":0.47936445474624634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24683644","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q138372","display_name":"High-frequency trading","level":3,"score":0.4301466643810272},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C117245426","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q235038","display_name":"Technical analysis","level":2,"score":0.42113515734672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.07528573274612427},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C132651083","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7942","display_name":"Climate change","level":2,"score":0.07504507899284363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C21547014","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1423657","display_name":"Operations management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18903297","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7150","display_name":"Ecology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764883386","display_name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy","issn_l":"2160-6544","issn":["2160-6544","2160-6552"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fer:wpaper:28","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148767","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:teepxx:v:3:y:2014:i:1:p:92-123","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/21606544.2013.865569","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:www.doria.fi:10024/148767","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148767","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196760","display_name":"Doria (University of Helsinki)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I133731052","host_organization_name":"University of Helsinki","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I133731052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"B Vertaisarvioimattomat tieteelliset kirjoitukset"},{"id":"pmh:oai:www.doria.fi:10024/148913","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.doria.fi/handle/10024/148913","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196760","display_name":"Doria (University of Helsinki)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I133731052","host_organization_name":"University of Helsinki","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I133731052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"A Vertaisarvioidut tieteelliset artikkelit"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320320300","display_name":"European Commission","ror":"https://ror.org/00k4n6c32"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321855","display_name":"Tekes","ror":"https://ror.org/02ag8cq23"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":78,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W29092591","https://openalex.org/W88571598","https://openalex.org/W181525176","https://openalex.org/W295698885","https://openalex.org/W1499550068","https://openalex.org/W1503599903","https://openalex.org/W1541770293","https://openalex.org/W1595421350","https://openalex.org/W1823192216","https://openalex.org/W1842933403","https://openalex.org/W1882812226","https://openalex.org/W1970411806","https://openalex.org/W1977624752","https://openalex.org/W1979575715","https://openalex.org/W1982366396","https://openalex.org/W1991722891","https://openalex.org/W1999814123","https://openalex.org/W1999996900","https://openalex.org/W2000525652","https://openalex.org/W2001052301","https://openalex.org/W2006568420","https://openalex.org/W2008621450","https://openalex.org/W2016238575","https://openalex.org/W2022405913","https://openalex.org/W2022897712","https://openalex.org/W2024929388","https://openalex.org/W2030101862","https://openalex.org/W2036017779","https://openalex.org/W2041383589","https://openalex.org/W2044117118","https://openalex.org/W2048951190","https://openalex.org/W2057181297","https://openalex.org/W2058559746","https://openalex.org/W2068136378","https://openalex.org/W2075025476","https://openalex.org/W2089856083","https://openalex.org/W2090268625","https://openalex.org/W2091938053","https://openalex.org/W2100376816","https://openalex.org/W2104137653","https://openalex.org/W2116988722","https://openalex.org/W2121224351","https://openalex.org/W2130019902","https://openalex.org/W2131773668","https://openalex.org/W2132164335","https://openalex.org/W2132286633","https://openalex.org/W2135606128","https://openalex.org/W2135791301","https://openalex.org/W2137553792","https://openalex.org/W2138293190","https://openalex.org/W2140334718","https://openalex.org/W2147413833","https://openalex.org/W2219537637","https://openalex.org/W2313953460","https://openalex.org/W2405609360","https://openalex.org/W2891601610","https://openalex.org/W2940897671","https://openalex.org/W2947626232","https://openalex.org/W3121671795","https://openalex.org/W3121956658","https://openalex.org/W3122065115","https://openalex.org/W3122205006","https://openalex.org/W3122597312","https://openalex.org/W3123523811","https://openalex.org/W3123821872","https://openalex.org/W3123976386","https://openalex.org/W3124945637","https://openalex.org/W3125368651","https://openalex.org/W3125382458","https://openalex.org/W3146166473","https://openalex.org/W4229539396","https://openalex.org/W4230871672","https://openalex.org/W4238187368","https://openalex.org/W4241115065","https://openalex.org/W4244241522","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4298005629","https://openalex.org/W7097790692"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1977161830","https://openalex.org/W7010747879","https://openalex.org/W1973689933","https://openalex.org/W7111141950","https://openalex.org/W2114461899","https://openalex.org/W4396921912","https://openalex.org/W4403399813","https://openalex.org/W4405245272","https://openalex.org/W2531320732","https://openalex.org/W2032143121"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0,35,76],"study":[1,118],"the":[2,6,16,23,37,59,73,79,83,112,117,125],"informational":[3,133],"efficiency":[4,44],"of":[5,43,50,120],"European":[7],"Emissions":[8],"Trading":[9,89],"Scheme,":[10],"EU":[11,113,126],"ETS":[12,114,127],"market,":[13],"by":[14],"simulating":[15],"trading":[17,28,70,74,100,110],"in":[18,33,72,86,111],"this":[19],"emerging":[20],"market.":[21],"If":[22],"market":[24,115,128],"is":[25],"efficient,":[26],"profitable":[27,109],"should":[29],"only":[30],"exist":[31],"locally":[32],"time.":[34],"adopt":[36],"Timmermann":[38],"and":[39,45,54,97],"Granger":[40],"(2004)":[41],"definition":[42],"run":[46],"a":[47],"large":[48],"set":[49],"econometric,":[51],"technical":[52,98],"analysis":[53,99],"combined":[55,80],"models":[56,81,85,93],"to":[57],"forecast":[58],"emissions":[60],"allowance":[61],"price":[62],"changes.":[63],"These":[64],"forecasts":[65],"are":[66],"then":[67],"used":[68],"as":[69],"signals":[71],"simulation.":[75],"find":[77],"that":[78,103,124],"outperform":[82],"other":[84],"forecasting":[87],"ability.":[88],"simulation":[90],"based":[91],"on":[92],"combining":[94],"time":[95],"series":[96],"rules":[101],"shows":[102,129],"there":[104],"have":[105],"been":[106],"possibilities":[107],"for":[108],"during":[116],"period":[119],"2008\u20132010.":[121],"This":[122],"suggests":[123],"periods":[130],"with":[131],"no":[132],"efficiency.":[134]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
