{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2014837523","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0010","title":"Argentina's Avoidable Crisis: Bad Luck, Bad Economics, Bad Politics, Bad Advice","display_name":"Argentina's Avoidable Crisis: Bad Luck, Bad Economics, Bad Politics, Bad Advice","publication_year":2002,"publication_date":"2002-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2014837523","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0010","mag":"2014837523"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1353/btf.2003.0010","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0010","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0010","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S90708452","display_name":"Brookings Trade Forum","issn_l":"1534-0635","issn":["1534-0635"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-1"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Brookings Trade Forum","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109007414","display_name":"Andrew P. Powell","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Andrew (Andrew Philip) Powell","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5109007414"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":8.7592,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":39,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.97196313,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"2002","issue":"1","first_page":"1","last_page":"58"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.9922000169754028,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.9922000169754028,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.003800000064074993,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14112","display_name":"Economic, financial, and policy analysis","score":0.0010999999940395355,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/argentine-economic-crisis","display_name":"Argentine economic crisis","score":0.6600000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sudden-stops","display_name":"sudden stops","score":0.546999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/capital-flight","display_name":"capital flight","score":0.47099998593330383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/fiscal-sustainability","display_name":"fiscal sustainability","score":0.550000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/banking-crisis","display_name":"banking crisis","score":0.7149999737739563},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/debt-dynamics","display_name":"debt dynamics","score":0.4020000100135803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/currency-mismatch","display_name":"currency mismatch","score":0.5400000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-flexibility","display_name":"exchange rate flexibility","score":0.8700000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/imf-policy-advice","display_name":"IMF policy advice","score":0.37400001287460327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crisis-prevention","display_name":"crisis prevention","score":0.5189999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/multiple-crises","display_name":"multiple crises","score":0.4480000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/emerging-markets","display_name":"emerging markets","score":0.5189999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-misalignment","display_name":"exchange rate misalignment","score":0.4699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-exchange-rate","display_name":"real exchange rate","score":0.4909999966621399},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-contagion","display_name":"financial contagion","score":0.4000000059604645}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61783943","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1970348","display_name":"Luck","level":2,"score":0.48361220955848694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.4665493667125702},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141121606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8142","display_name":"Currency","level":2,"score":0.4509524703025818},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120527767","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3196867","display_name":"Debt","level":2,"score":0.44725045561790466},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778300220","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q114380","display_name":"Financial crisis","level":2,"score":0.4457201361656189},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C6303427","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47398","display_name":"Economic history","level":1,"score":0.4282808303833008},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.4217444062232971},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4114505648612976},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136264566","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q159810","display_name":"Economy","level":1,"score":0.33195966482162476},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.29526227712631226},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.2309553325176239},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.20995616912841797},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.19633129239082336},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.1596340537071228},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27206212","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q34178","display_name":"Theology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1353/btf.2003.0010","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0010","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1353/btf.2003.0010","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S90708452","display_name":"Brookings Trade Forum","issn_l":"1534-0635","issn":["1534-0635"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","jufo-1"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Brookings Trade Forum","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:muse.jhu.edu:/article/38880","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://muse.jhu.edu/article/38880","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196299","display_name":"Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I145311948","host_organization_name":"Johns Hopkins University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I145311948"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/17","score":0.5299999713897705,"display_name":"Partnerships for the goals"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":4,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1483798525","https://openalex.org/W1556151171","https://openalex.org/W2188053132","https://openalex.org/W3151997404"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7095831083","https://openalex.org/W2124335092","https://openalex.org/W1556151171","https://openalex.org/W6980059089","https://openalex.org/W2373169461","https://openalex.org/W7101076577","https://openalex.org/W2188053132","https://openalex.org/W1493274991","https://openalex.org/W116319244","https://openalex.org/W7045615740"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Comments":[0],"and":[1,9,16,25,42,56,101,127,146,160,210,218,237,268,348,419,468,514,536,567,576,609,667],"Discussion":[2,12],"on":[3,115,508,589],"the":[4,21,116,128,138,246,253,260,280,306,328,340,343,354,359,363,376,382,409,417,425,449,452,461,469,480,483,490,494,512,518,522,528,533,539,555,574,582,590,624,634,677,681],"Argentine":[5],"Papers":[6],"Joyce":[7],"Chang":[8],"Liliana":[10],"Rojas-Suarez":[11],"References":[13],"Calvo,":[14],"Guillermo,":[15,145],"others.":[17],"2002.":[18,45,98,125,149,172],"\"Sudden":[19],"Stops,":[20],"Real":[22,86],"Exchange":[23],"Rate,":[24],"Fiscal":[26],"Sustainability:":[27],"Argentina's":[28],"Lessons.":[29],"\"":[30],"Mimeo.":[31,53,167],"Inter-American":[32],"Development":[33],"Bank":[34,55],"De":[35],"la":[36,563],"Torre,":[37,564],"Augusto,":[38],"E.":[39],"Levy":[40,565],"Yeyati,":[41,566],"Sergio":[43],"Schmukler.":[44],"\"Argentina's":[46,64],"Financial":[47],"Crisis:":[48,155],"Floating":[49],"Money,":[50],"Sinking":[51],"Banking.\"":[52],"World":[54,168],"Universidad":[57],"Torcuato":[58],"Di":[59],"Tella.":[60],"JP":[61,196,200],"Morgan.":[62],"2000.":[63],"Debt":[65],"Dynamic:":[66],"Much":[67],"Ado":[68],"about":[69,581],"Not":[70],"Very":[71],"Much.\"":[72],"Market":[73],"Brief.":[74],"New":[75,92],"York":[76,93],"(September":[77],"6).":[78],"\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014.":[79],"2001.":[80],"\"Argentina,":[81],"Back":[82],"to":[83,132,276,286,327,367,373,375,379,431,478,485,554,607,627,662,672],"Basics:":[84],"A":[85],"(Old":[87],"Economy)":[88],"Adjustment":[89],"Is":[90],"Needed.\"":[91],"(February":[94],"26).":[95],"Krueger,":[96],"Anne.":[97],"\"Crisis":[99],"Prevention":[100],"Resolution:":[102],"Lessons":[103],"from":[104,433,617],"Argentina.\"":[105],"Speech":[106],"prepared":[107,136],"for":[108,137,140,187,259],"National":[109],"Bureau":[110],"of":[111,152,228,234,290,305,335,342,395,441,451,482,493,538,585,614,620,630,653,680],"Economic":[112],"Research":[113],"Conference":[114],"Argentina":[117,158,556],"Crisis.":[118],"Cambridge,":[119],"Mass.":[120],"(July":[121],"17).":[122],"Mussa,":[123],"Michael.":[124],"\"Argentina":[126],"Fund:":[129],"From":[130,165],"Triumph":[131],"Tragedy.\"":[133],"Policy":[134],"brief":[135,226],"Institute":[139,186],"International":[141,174,188],"Economics":[142,189],"(July).":[143],"Perry,":[144],"Luis":[147],"Serv\u00e9n.":[148],"\"The":[150],"Anatomy":[151],"a":[153,206,225,229,271,277,313,317,332,371,405,434,445,586,657,668],"Multiple":[154],"Why":[156],"Was":[157],"Special":[159],"What":[161],"We":[162],"Can":[163],"Learn":[164],"It.\"":[166],"Bank.":[169],"Rojas-Suarez,":[170],"Liliana.":[171],"\"Can":[173],"Capital":[175],"Standards":[176],"Strengthen":[177],"Banks":[178],"in":[179,266,346,436,511,525,532,543,545,561,623,633,643],"Emerging":[180],"Markets?\"":[181],"Working":[182],"Paper":[183],"01-10.":[184],"Washington:":[185],"(November).":[190],"[End":[191],"Page":[192],"119]":[193],"Footnotes":[194],"1.":[195],"Morgan":[197,201],"(2000).":[198],"2.":[199],"(2001).":[202],"3.":[203],"To":[204],"cite":[205],"few,":[207],"see":[208],"Calvo":[209],"others":[211],"(2002);":[212,214,216],"Krueger":[213],"Mussa":[215],"Perry":[217],"Serv\u00e9n":[219],"(2002).":[220,569],"4.":[221],"The":[222,571],"paper":[223,355,666],"contains":[224],"discussion":[227,329,679],"possible":[230,427],"way":[231,303],"out:":[232],"pesification":[233,273],"financial":[235,264],"assets":[236,291],"liabilities,":[238],"combined":[239],"with":[240,420,684],"exchange":[241,254],"rate":[242,255],"flexibility.":[243],"By":[244],"eliminating":[245],"currency":[247],"mismatch,":[248],"it":[249],"was":[250,299,385,454,503],"expected":[251],"that":[252,322,362,381,390,402,407,448,459,537,573,594,603],"movement":[256],"would":[257,282],"correct":[258],"misalignment":[261],"without":[262],"generating":[263],"distress":[265],"banks":[267,591,595],"corporations.":[269],"However,":[270],"forced":[272],"is":[274,316,403,489,547,592,640],"equivalent":[275],"default,":[278],"since":[279,500],"public":[281,496,541],"have":[283],"been":[284],"obliged":[285],"hold":[287],"certain":[288],"kinds":[289],"against":[292,602],"their":[293,649,663],"will.":[294],"In":[295],"my":[296],"view,":[297],"this":[298,685],"not":[300,311,357,386,455,504,597],"an":[301,618,628],"appropriate":[302],"out":[304],"problems.":[307],"5.":[308],"This":[309,638],"should":[310],"be":[312],"surprise.":[314],"It":[315],"common":[318],"joke":[319],"among":[320],"practitioners":[321],"adding":[323],"one":[324],"more":[325],"economist":[326],"invariably":[330],"brings":[331],"different":[333],"point":[334,406],"view.":[336],"6.":[337],"I":[338],"find":[339],"treatment":[341],"fiscal":[344,368,383,412,428,437,471,523],"issues":[345,552],"Hausmann":[347,513,608],"Velasco":[349,515],"particularly":[350],"problematic.":[351],"For":[352],"example,":[353],"does":[356],"recognize":[358],"crucial":[360],"importance":[361],"markets":[364],"were":[365],"giving":[366],"expenditure":[369,438],"as":[370,393,439,444],"tool":[372],"react":[374],"shocks.":[377],"Indeed,":[378],"argue":[380,458],"stance":[384],"expansionary,":[387],"they":[388,457],"show":[389],"primary":[391,462,491],"spending":[392],"percentage":[394],"GDP":[396],"had":[397,430],"\"remained":[398],"remarkably":[399],"flat.\"":[400],"But":[401,474],"precisely":[404],"disappointed":[408],"market.":[410],"With":[411],"revenues":[413],"adversely":[414],"influenced":[415],"by":[416],"recession":[418],"increasing":[421],"debt":[422],"service":[423],"payments,":[424],"only":[426],"policy":[429],"come":[432],"tightening":[435],"proportion":[440],"GDP.":[442],"Moreover,":[443],"further":[446],"proof":[447,593],"root":[450],"crisis":[453,557],"fiscal,":[456],"both":[460],"surplus":[463],"(excluding":[464],"Social":[465,529],"Security":[466,530],"payments)":[467],"provinces'":[470],"balance":[472,492],"improved.":[473],"again,":[475],"what":[476],"matters":[477],"assess":[479],"capacity":[481],"government":[484,665],"meet":[486],"its":[487],"obligations":[488],"consolidated":[495,540],"sector":[497,542,674],"and,":[498],"certainly":[499],"1999,":[501],"there":[502],"consistent":[505],"improvement":[506],"(based":[507],"table":[509],"2":[510],"paper).":[516],"Thus":[517],"authors'":[519],"comparison":[520],"between":[521],"adjustment":[524],"Argentina,":[526],"excluding":[527],"system":[531],"precrisis":[534],"period,":[535],"Brazil":[544],"1999-2000":[546],"simply":[548],"incorrect.":[549],"7.":[550],"Banking":[551],"related":[553],"are":[558],"also":[559],"discussed":[560],"de":[562],"Schmukler":[568],"8.":[570],"fact":[572],"authorities":[575],"analysts":[577],"never":[578],"stop":[579],"worrying":[580],"adverse":[583],"effects":[584],"potential":[587],"devaluation":[588],"did":[596],"take":[598],"sufficient":[599],"precautionary":[600],"measures":[601],"risk.":[604],"9.":[605],"According":[606],"Velasco's":[610],"data,":[611],"real":[612],"growth":[613],"exports":[615],"declined":[616],"average":[619,629],"13.6":[621],"percent":[622,632,659,670],"period":[625],"1994-98":[626],"1.4":[631],"1999-01":[635],"period.":[636],"10.":[637],"distortion":[639],"extremely":[641],"severe":[642],"most":[644,652],"emerging":[645],"markets.":[646],"When":[647],"estimating":[648],"capital":[650],"requirements,":[651],"these":[654],"economies":[655],"attach":[656],"0":[658],"risk":[660],"weight":[661,671],"own":[664],"100":[669],"private":[673],"liabilities.":[675],"See":[676],"extensive":[678],"problems":[682],"associated":[683],"practice...":[686]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-09-22T06:50:58.402377","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
