{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2012676433","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","title":"Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran","display_name":"Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran","publication_year":2011,"publication_date":"2011-07-21","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2012676433","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","mag":"2012676433"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","pdf_url":"https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/29/1295/2011/angeo-29-1295-2011.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S63956823","display_name":"Annales Geophysicae","issn_l":"0992-7689","issn":["0992-7689","1432-0576"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annales Geophysicae","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref","doaj"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"gold","oa_url":"https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/29/1295/2011/angeo-29-1295-2011.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5055995709","display_name":"Iman Soltanzadeh","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7465-4117","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7465-4117"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I23946033","display_name":"University of Tehran","ror":"https://ror.org/05vf56z40","country_code":"IR","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I23946033"]}],"countries":["IR"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"I. Soltanzadeh","raw_affiliation_strings":["Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I23946033"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036340203","display_name":"Majid Azadi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5991-9703","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5991-9703"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"M. Azadi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Atmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Atmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran","institution_ids":[]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5080503421","display_name":"G. A. Vakili","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"G. A. Vakili","raw_affiliation_strings":["Atmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Atmospheric Science & Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran","institution_ids":[]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":1100,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":1186},"apc_paid":{"value":1100,"currency":"EUR","value_usd":1186},"fwci":0.5189,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.65001939,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":87,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":"29","issue":"7","first_page":"1295","last_page":"1303"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10029","display_name":"Climate variability and models","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2306","display_name":"Global and Planetary Change"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10330","display_name":"Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2312","display_name":"Water Science and Technology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/23","display_name":"Environmental Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-model-averaging","display_name":"Bayesian model averaging","score":0.9739999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"probabilistic forecasting","score":0.8209999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/2-m-air-temperature","display_name":"2 m air temperature","score":0.8299999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-forecasting","display_name":"ensemble forecasting","score":0.5669999718666077},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/limited-area-model","display_name":"limited area model","score":0.6790000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weather-research-and-forecasting-model","display_name":"WRF model","score":0.9330000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mm5","display_name":"MM5 model","score":0.996999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-resource-management","display_name":"human resource management","score":0.9470000267028809},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-calibration","display_name":"forecast calibration","score":0.8920000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-reliability","display_name":"forecast reliability","score":0.722000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/iran","display_name":"Iran","score":0.6919999718666077}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188052254","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1516983","display_name":"MM5","level":3,"score":0.8765382766723633},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133204551","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q838305","display_name":"Weather Research and Forecasting Model","level":2,"score":0.7116628289222717},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.6765214204788208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.6475322246551514},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163109420","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q287011","display_name":"Global Forecast System","level":3,"score":0.5589924454689026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.5392225384712219},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.48896491527557373},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.4748975336551666},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.43738695979118347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.41947609186172485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.36577099561691284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.34587883949279785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.340884268283844},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.33786141872406006},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40382383","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2399824","display_name":"Mesoscale meteorology","level":2,"score":0.16925832629203796},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.16580826044082642},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.10671946406364441}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","pdf_url":"https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/29/1295/2011/angeo-29-1295-2011.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S63956823","display_name":"Annales Geophysicae","issn_l":"0992-7689","issn":["0992-7689","1432-0576"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annales Geophysicae","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:doaj.org/article:0807e0f8a052495ca2cd443c290915ac","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doaj.org/article/0807e0f8a052495ca2cd443c290915ac","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401280","display_name":"DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"cc-by-sa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by-sa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Annales Geophysicae, Vol 29, Pp 1295-1303 (2011)","raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-29-1295-2011","pdf_url":"https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/29/1295/2011/angeo-29-1295-2011.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S63956823","display_name":"Annales Geophysicae","issn_l":"0992-7689","issn":["0992-7689","1432-0576"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-b","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","oarl","poland-100","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310313756","host_organization_name":"Copernicus Publications","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310313756"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Copernicus Publications"],"type":"journal"},"license":"cc-by","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/cc-by","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Annales Geophysicae","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.75,"display_name":"Climate action","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/13"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2012676433.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W2012676433.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":31,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W221263235","https://openalex.org/W1924308243","https://openalex.org/W1976255336","https://openalex.org/W1979422307","https://openalex.org/W2002378211","https://openalex.org/W2013765062","https://openalex.org/W2049633694","https://openalex.org/W2049741199","https://openalex.org/W2069821006","https://openalex.org/W2096533374","https://openalex.org/W2097804995","https://openalex.org/W2110668259","https://openalex.org/W2111186294","https://openalex.org/W2117315156","https://openalex.org/W2117853077","https://openalex.org/W2144668858","https://openalex.org/W2153529786","https://openalex.org/W2158840489","https://openalex.org/W2164939187","https://openalex.org/W2166120424","https://openalex.org/W2172622149","https://openalex.org/W2173673487","https://openalex.org/W2178057317","https://openalex.org/W2178242555","https://openalex.org/W2178452323","https://openalex.org/W2180247982","https://openalex.org/W2180576529","https://openalex.org/W2915783575","https://openalex.org/W3148930403","https://openalex.org/W4255451778","https://openalex.org/W6607510496"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2057533891","https://openalex.org/W4291465208","https://openalex.org/W7096651918","https://openalex.org/W2037129041","https://openalex.org/W2117315156","https://openalex.org/W2839170846","https://openalex.org/W2414214921","https://openalex.org/W2363900826","https://openalex.org/W3019382558","https://openalex.org/W2156402684"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract.":[0],"Using":[1,154],"Bayesian":[2],"Model":[3,74],"Averaging":[4],"(BMA),":[5],"an":[6],"attempt":[7],"was":[8,88,165],"made":[9],"to":[10,99],"obtain":[11],"calibrated":[12,110,130],"probabilistic":[13,131],"numerical":[14],"forecasts":[15,124,132,171],"of":[16,72,77,85,93,123,145,150],"2-m":[17],"temperature":[18],"over":[19,102],"Iran.":[20,103],"The":[21,82,104,129],"ensemble":[22,84,107,157],"employs":[23],"three":[24],"limited":[25],"area":[26],"models":[27],"(WRF,":[28],"MM5":[29,44],"and":[30,40,45,61,66,125,138],"HRM),":[31],"with":[32,35],"WRF":[33,46],"used":[34],"five":[36],"different":[37],"configurations.":[38],"Initial":[39],"boundary":[41,67],"conditions":[42,68],"for":[43,53,62,90,114],"are":[47],"obtained":[48],"from":[49,70],"the":[50,64,78,148,151,155,168,176],"National":[51],"Centers":[52],"Environmental":[54],"Prediction":[55],"(NCEP)":[56],"Global":[57,73],"Forecast":[58],"System":[59],"(GFS)":[60],"HRM":[63],"initial":[65],"come":[69],"analysis":[71],"Europe":[75],"(GME)":[76],"German":[79],"Weather":[80],"Service.":[81],"resulting":[83],"seven":[86],"members":[87],"run":[89],"a":[91,118,161],"period":[92],"6":[94],"months":[95],"(from":[96],"December":[97],"2008":[98],"May":[100],"2009)":[101],"48-h":[105],"raw":[106,152],"outputs":[108],"were":[109,133],"using":[111,117,135],"BMA":[112,146,170],"technique":[113],"120":[115],"days":[116,120],"40":[119],"training":[121],"sample":[122],"relative":[126],"verification":[127],"data.":[128],"assessed":[134],"rank":[136],"histogram":[137],"attribute":[139],"diagrams.":[140],"Results":[141],"showed":[142],"that":[143,167],"application":[144],"improved":[147],"reliability":[149],"ensemble.":[153],"weighted":[156],"mean":[158],"forecast":[159,163],"as":[160],"deterministic":[162,179],"it":[164],"found":[166],"deterministic-style":[169],"performed":[172],"usually":[173],"better":[174],"than":[175],"best":[177],"member's":[178],"forecast.":[180]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
