{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2011194076","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","title":"Impact of future cigarette smoking scenarios on mortality of the adult population in the United States, 2000\u20132050","display_name":"Impact of future cigarette smoking scenarios on mortality of the adult population in the United States, 2000\u20132050","publication_year":1996,"publication_date":"1996-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2011194076","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","mag":"2011194076","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9204694"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206601","display_name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","issn_l":"1948-5565","issn":["1948-5565","1948-5573"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110329717","display_name":"Charles B. Nam","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103163165","display_name":"Florida State University","ror":"https://ror.org/05g3dte14","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Charles B. Nam","raw_affiliation_strings":["Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee 32306, USA","Center for the Study of Population and Department of Sociology , Florida State University , Tallahassee , Florida , 32306"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for the Study of Population, Florida State University, Tallahassee 32306, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Center for the Study of Population and Department of Sociology , Florida State University , Tallahassee , Florida , 32306","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103163165"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5107121106","display_name":"Richard G. Roger","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I188538660","display_name":"University of Colorado Boulder","ror":"https://ror.org/02ttsq026","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I188538660"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I2802236040","display_name":"University of Colorado System","ror":"https://ror.org/00jc20583","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Richard G. Roger","raw_affiliation_strings":["Population Program and Department of Sociology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Population Program and Department of Sociology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I188538660","https://openalex.org/I2802236040"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081672166","display_name":"Robert A. Hummer","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3058-6383","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3058-6383"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I121820613","display_name":"Louisiana State University","ror":"https://ror.org/05ect4e57","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I121820613"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Robert A. Hummer","raw_affiliation_strings":["Louisiana Population Data Center and Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 70803"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Louisiana Population Data Center and Department of Sociology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 70803","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I121820613"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.2248,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":9,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.56396006,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"43","issue":"3-4","first_page":"155","last_page":"168"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10060","display_name":"Smoking Behavior and Cessation","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2737","display_name":"Physiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10060","display_name":"Smoking Behavior and Cessation","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2737","display_name":"Physiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10556","display_name":"Global Cancer Incidence and Screening","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2730","display_name":"Oncology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cigarette-smoking","display_name":"cigarette smoking","score":0.9800000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/excess-mortality","display_name":"excess mortality","score":0.875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/smoking-related-deaths","display_name":"smoking-related deaths","score":0.6119999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-aging","display_name":"population aging","score":0.8190000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sex-ratio","display_name":"sex ratio","score":0.703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/smoking-policy","display_name":"smoking policy","score":0.5730000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tobacco-control","display_name":"tobacco control","score":0.4350000023841858}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993680756","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7242345","display_name":"Smoking prevalence","level":3,"score":0.7442920207977295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.7227844595909119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.6539795994758606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3018792137","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6914399","display_name":"Excess mortality","level":3,"score":0.6120524406433105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.5981962084770203},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3019085024","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7212330","display_name":"Cigarette smoking","level":2,"score":0.5796460509300232},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C179755657","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q58702","display_name":"Mortality rate","level":2,"score":0.5494512915611267},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.44727402925491333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160050368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q132453","display_name":"Developed country","level":3,"score":0.4237598180770874},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.42192792892456055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002423","descriptor_name":"Cause of Death","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012907","descriptor_name":"Smoking","qualifier_ui":"Q000401","qualifier_name":"mortality","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D012907","descriptor_name":"Smoking","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014481","descriptor_name":"United States","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D019456","descriptor_name":"Health Transition","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/19485565.1996.9988921","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210206601","display_name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","issn_l":"1948-5565","issn":["1948-5565","1948-5573"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Biodemography and Social Biology","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:9204694","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9204694","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Social biology","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.9537000060081482}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G4811211501","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"1R01 AG10113-01A2","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","funder_display_name":"National Institute on Aging"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G7773205727","display_name":"SOCIODEMOGRAPHY OF SMOKING AND ADULT MORTALITY","funder_award_id":"5r01ag010113-02","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","funder_display_name":"National Institutes of Health"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320332161","display_name":"National Institutes of Health","ror":"https://ror.org/01cwqze88"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320337337","display_name":"National Institute on Aging","ror":"https://ror.org/049v75w11"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":11,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W64231871","https://openalex.org/W150969067","https://openalex.org/W201694180","https://openalex.org/W1982646574","https://openalex.org/W2052077021","https://openalex.org/W2071668164","https://openalex.org/W2100346673","https://openalex.org/W2114616454","https://openalex.org/W2147327377","https://openalex.org/W2916425326","https://openalex.org/W3147351840"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W151378798","https://openalex.org/W1967728432","https://openalex.org/W2059608688","https://openalex.org/W2769727390","https://openalex.org/W2055039976","https://openalex.org/W7075664411","https://openalex.org/W4388362171","https://openalex.org/W2044845071","https://openalex.org/W4410908216","https://openalex.org/W3027638398"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,196],"prevalence":[1,20,91,143,150,168],"of":[2,46,83,89,117,193,202,206],"cigarette":[3,48,221],"smoking":[4,49,75,90,167,207],"in":[5,19,25,51,114,200],"the":[6,12,29,52,56,63,78,115,118,173,191,194,203],"United":[7,53],"States":[8,54],"has":[9,22,36],"declined":[10],"over":[11,60],"past":[13],"few":[14],"decades.":[15],"However,":[16],"some":[17],"leveling-off":[18],"rates":[21,169],"been":[23],"observed":[24],"recent":[26],"years,":[27],"and":[28,33,59,61,76,80,106,187,210,215],"rate":[30],"for":[31,55,180,185],"teenagers":[32],"young":[34],"adults":[35],"even":[37],"turned":[38],"upward.":[39],"This":[40],"paper":[41],"considers":[42],"four":[43],"alternative":[44],"scenarios":[45,67,97],"future":[47],"patterns":[50],"population":[57,174],"25":[58],"measures":[62],"impact":[64,205],"these":[65],"different":[66],"would":[68,111,159,170],"have":[69],"on":[70,77,208],"excess":[71,109,157],"mortality":[72,209],"due":[73],"to":[74,99,190,213,220],"sex":[79,175],"age":[81],"distributions":[82],"deaths.":[84],"Scenarios":[85],"reflecting":[86],"higher":[87],"levels":[88],"produce":[92],"considerably":[93],"more":[94,182],"deaths":[95,110,158,179,184],"than":[96,125,183],"tied":[98],"lower":[100],"levels.":[101],"As":[102],"many":[103,153],"as":[104,152,154],"two":[105],"one-half":[107],"million":[108,156],"take":[112],"place":[113],"decade":[116,164],"2020's":[119],"if":[120],"a":[121,133,141,148],"high":[122],"prevalence,":[123,127,135],"rather":[124],"low":[126],"assumption":[128,136,144],"proves":[129,137],"correct.":[130,138],"Even":[131,139],"when":[132,140],"constant":[134,142],"is":[145],"compared":[146],"with":[147,211],"moderately-declining":[149],"assumption,":[151],"one":[155],"be":[160],"generated":[161],"during":[162],"that":[163],"alone.":[165],"Lowering":[166],"also":[171],"change":[172],"ratio":[176],"by":[177,188],"reducing":[178],"males":[181],"females,":[186],"contributing":[189],"aging":[192],"population.":[195],"results":[197],"are":[198],"interpreted":[199],"terms":[201],"overall":[204],"regard":[212],"public":[214],"private":[216],"policy":[217],"decisions":[218],"related":[219],"smoking.":[222]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
