{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2006804635","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","title":"Assessing the forecasters: an analysis of the forecasting records of the Treasury, the London Business School and the National Institute","display_name":"Assessing the forecasters: an analysis of the forecasting records of the Treasury, the London Business School and the National Institute","publication_year":1999,"publication_date":"1999-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2006804635","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","mag":"2006804635"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5034995797","display_name":"Terence C. Mills","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3757-9338","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3757-9338"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I143804889","display_name":"Loughborough University","ror":"https://ror.org/04vg4w365","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I143804889"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Terence C. Mills","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Economics, Loughborough University, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I143804889"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5055950935","display_name":"Gordon Pepper","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I180825142","display_name":"City, University of London","ror":"https://ror.org/04489at23","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I124357947","https://openalex.org/I180825142","https://openalex.org/I4401726869"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gordon T. Pepper","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Banking and Finance, City University Business School, London, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Banking and Finance, City University Business School, London, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I180825142"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5034995797"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I143804889"],"apc_list":{"value":2800,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2800},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.6962,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":44,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94679269,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"15","issue":"3","first_page":"247","last_page":"257"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13399","display_name":"Unemployment and Economic Growth","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-forecasting","display_name":"economic forecasting","score":0.6389999985694885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.7710000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-forecasting","display_name":"inflation forecasting","score":0.9010000228881836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/output-growth-forecasting","display_name":"output growth forecasting","score":0.9890000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-bias","display_name":"forecast bias","score":0.4830000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-horizon","display_name":"forecast horizon","score":0.531000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/recession-forecasting","display_name":"recession forecasting","score":0.4659999907016754},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-reliability","display_name":"forecast reliability","score":0.4699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/london-business-school","display_name":"London Business School","score":0.8980000019073486}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780889827","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10756188","display_name":"Treasury","level":2,"score":0.9213269948959351},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.7153679132461548},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.6849625110626221},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.6357024908065796},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.5122234225273132},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43214815","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7310987","display_name":"Reliability (semiconductor)","level":3,"score":0.5112857818603516},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.47572973370552063},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159176650","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43261","display_name":"Horizon","level":2,"score":0.4329318106174469},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.408053994178772},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3670376241207123},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.21665582060813904},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.16258054971694946},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.11810708045959473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163258240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25342","display_name":"Power (physics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/s0169-2070(98)00074-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:intfor:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:247-257","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169-2070(98)00074-0","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.6399999856948853,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":18,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W322115500","https://openalex.org/W1489761330","https://openalex.org/W1967523695","https://openalex.org/W1967883775","https://openalex.org/W1989165031","https://openalex.org/W1996286830","https://openalex.org/W2000842688","https://openalex.org/W2037780786","https://openalex.org/W2056327153","https://openalex.org/W2067150672","https://openalex.org/W2072708471","https://openalex.org/W2074326882","https://openalex.org/W2079029063","https://openalex.org/W2135212719","https://openalex.org/W3125696988","https://openalex.org/W4213308152","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4291327732"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2055936299","https://openalex.org/W2473043102","https://openalex.org/W4230793830","https://openalex.org/W3093390047","https://openalex.org/W7096999126","https://openalex.org/W2280327061","https://openalex.org/W1585134611","https://openalex.org/W4390912462","https://openalex.org/W4239630960","https://openalex.org/W2021862238"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
