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We are grateful to the National Science Foundation (grant SES-8608885) for research support; to the participants of the October 1985 NBER Economic Fluctuations Research Meeting, particularly Steve Cecchetti, Robert Gordon, Robert Hall, Frederic Mishkin, Knut Mork, and William Nordhaus, for their comments on an earlier version of this paper; to Steve Davis, Stan Fischer, Bob Flood, Robert Shiller, Jeff Wrase, and Doug Young for their helpful suggestions; to John Anderson, Jonghwa Cho, Chan Chee Pang and Mark Thoma for computational assistance in the early stages of this project; and to Magda Kandil for her excellent research assistance in the later stages of the project. Finally, we thank Richard Sweeney, Danny Quah, Jeffrey Woolridge, and an anonymous referee for their help on the final draft of the paper. All data employed in this paper can be obtained from readily available public sources; see our data appendix","*Washington State University and Brigham Young University. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation (grant SES-8608885) for research support","see our data appendix","to John Anderson, Jonghwa Cho, Chan Chee Pang and Mark Thoma for computational assistance in the early stages of this project","to Magda Kandil for her excellent research assistance in the later stages of the project. Finally, we thank Richard Sweeney, Danny Quah, Jeffrey Woolridge, and an anonymous referee for their help on the final draft of the paper. All data employed in this paper can be obtained from readily available public sources","to Steve Davis, Stan Fischer, Bob Flood, Robert Shiller, Jeff Wrase, and Doug Young for their helpful suggestions","to the participants of the October 1985 NBER Economic Fluctuations Research Meeting, particularly Steve Cecchetti, Robert Gordon, Robert Hall, Frederic Mishkin, Knut Mork, and William Nordhaus, for their comments on an earlier version of this paper"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"*Washington State University and Brigham Young University. We are grateful to the National Science Foundation (grant SES-8608885) for research support; to the participants of the October 1985 NBER Economic Fluctuations Research Meeting, particularly Steve Cecchetti, Robert Gordon, Robert Hall, Frederic Mishkin, Knut Mork, and William Nordhaus, for their comments on an earlier version of this paper; to Steve Davis, Stan Fischer, Bob Flood, Robert Shiller, Jeff Wrase, and Doug Young for their helpful suggestions; to John Anderson, Jonghwa Cho, Chan Chee Pang and Mark Thoma for computational assistance in the early stages of this project; and to Magda Kandil for her excellent research assistance in the later stages of the project. Finally, we thank Richard Sweeney, Danny Quah, Jeffrey Woolridge, and an anonymous referee for their help on the final draft of the paper. 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