{"id":"https://openalex.org/W2003142643","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","title":"Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals","display_name":"Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals","publication_year":2010,"publication_date":"2010-06-10","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W2003142643","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","mag":"2003142643"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5100447952","display_name":"Jae Hwan Kim","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0287-6666","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0287-6666"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I196829312","display_name":"La Trobe University","ror":"https://ror.org/01rxfrp27","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I196829312"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Jae H. Kim","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, VIC 3086, Australia","School of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, VIC 3086, Australia#TAB#"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, VIC 3086, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I196829312"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Economics and Finance, La Trobe University, VIC 3086, Australia#TAB#","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I196829312"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017931577","display_name":"KEVIN K. F. WONG","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3847-2316","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3847-2316"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I14243506","display_name":"Hong Kong Polytechnic University","ror":"https://ror.org/0030zas98","country_code":"HK","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"]}],"countries":["HK"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Kevin Wong","raw_affiliation_strings":["School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong","School of Hotel & Tourism Management; The Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Hong Kong"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"School of Hotel & Tourism Management; The Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Hong Kong","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I14243506"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5029857788","display_name":"George A. Athanasopoulos","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5389-2802","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5389-2802"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56590836","display_name":"Monash University","ror":"https://ror.org/02bfwt286","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"George Athanasopoulos","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and Tourism Research Unit, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics and Tourism Research Unit, Monash University, Clayton, VIC 3800, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069542100","display_name":"Shen Liu","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0896-4310","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0896-4310"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I56590836","display_name":"Monash University","ror":"https://ror.org/02bfwt286","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Shen Liu","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Caulfield East, VIC 3145, Australia"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University, Caulfield East, VIC 3145, Australia","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I56590836"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5100447952"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I196829312"],"apc_list":{"value":2800,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2800},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.1723,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":53,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87984226,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"27","issue":"3","first_page":"887","last_page":"901"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-intervals","display_name":"prediction intervals","score":0.9620000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourist-arrivals","display_name":"tourist arrivals","score":0.9660000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tourism-forecasting","display_name":"tourism forecasting","score":0.972000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bias-corrected-bootstrap","display_name":"bias-corrected bootstrap","score":0.8059999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-arima-model","display_name":"seasonal ARIMA","score":0.890999972820282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/state-space-models","display_name":"state-space model","score":0.7509999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-smoothing","display_name":"exponential smoothing","score":0.8349999785423279},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-time-series-models","display_name":"structural time series models","score":0.8999999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/autoregressive-models","display_name":"autoregressive models","score":0.6809999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coverage-rate","display_name":"coverage rate","score":0.6439999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hong-kong-tourism","display_name":"Hong Kong tourism","score":0.7820000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/australian-tourism","display_name":"Australian tourism","score":0.9589999914169312}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C133710760","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775837","display_name":"Exponential smoothing","level":2,"score":0.8669788241386414},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24338571","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2566298","display_name":"Autoregressive integrated moving average","level":3,"score":0.8087974190711975},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159877910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2202883","display_name":"Autoregressive model","level":2,"score":0.6762360334396362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6679741144180298},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103402496","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1106171","display_name":"Prediction interval","level":2,"score":0.6178269982337952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.5762343406677246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143724316","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q312468","display_name":"Series (stratigraphy)","level":2,"score":0.5723061561584473},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151406439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q186588","display_name":"Time series","level":2,"score":0.45372772216796875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.42673611640930176},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3770464","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775963","display_name":"Smoothing","level":2,"score":0.4224720597267151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.38926762342453003},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.315330445766449},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.09165307879447937},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.02.014","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S39841227","display_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0169-2070","issn":["0169-2070","1872-8200"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","fnege-3","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320990","host_organization_name":"Elsevier BV","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320990"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Elsevier BV"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:msh:ebswps:2008-11","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2008/wp11-08.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2008/wp11-08.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:eprints.qut.edu.au:73234","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://eprints.qut.edu.au/73234/1/Kim%2C_Wong%2C_Athanasopoulos_and_Liu_%282011%29.pdf","pdf_url":"https://eprints.qut.edu.au/73234/1/Kim%2C_Wong%2C_Athanasopoulos_and_Liu_%282011%29.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402607","display_name":"QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I160993911","host_organization_name":"Queensland University of Technology","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I160993911"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"International Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"Contribution to Journal"},{"id":"mag:3121457194","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:msh:ebswps:2008-11","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:3:p:887-901","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016920701000083X","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.6600000262260437,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334704","display_name":"Australian Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/05mmh0f86"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":47,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W31078998","https://openalex.org/W173513606","https://openalex.org/W638887343","https://openalex.org/W1977970167","https://openalex.org/W1982995129","https://openalex.org/W1985453523","https://openalex.org/W1985815014","https://openalex.org/W1988303155","https://openalex.org/W1995945562","https://openalex.org/W1996621776","https://openalex.org/W1999006487","https://openalex.org/W2006746888","https://openalex.org/W2007399117","https://openalex.org/W2008913206","https://openalex.org/W2018506538","https://openalex.org/W2024786552","https://openalex.org/W2025492671","https://openalex.org/W2030339726","https://openalex.org/W2043526380","https://openalex.org/W2050141939","https://openalex.org/W2070382733","https://openalex.org/W2078586423","https://openalex.org/W2079063976","https://openalex.org/W2080290680","https://openalex.org/W2084175761","https://openalex.org/W2102895614","https://openalex.org/W2116512828","https://openalex.org/W2117829824","https://openalex.org/W2122251835","https://openalex.org/W2128130077","https://openalex.org/W2162174678","https://openalex.org/W2169658553","https://openalex.org/W2178649350","https://openalex.org/W2323575786","https://openalex.org/W2571446175","https://openalex.org/W2582743722","https://openalex.org/W2798058877","https://openalex.org/W3015379812","https://openalex.org/W3106889297","https://openalex.org/W3125411422","https://openalex.org/W3125696988","https://openalex.org/W4230568366","https://openalex.org/W4241653265","https://openalex.org/W4285719527","https://openalex.org/W4291327732","https://openalex.org/W4307492541","https://openalex.org/W4399582396"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1993528789","https://openalex.org/W7098234339","https://openalex.org/W7203669583","https://openalex.org/W4362531532","https://openalex.org/W3120062655","https://openalex.org/W2033717620","https://openalex.org/W2010134746","https://openalex.org/W1581222594","https://openalex.org/W197565618","https://openalex.org/W139976163"],"abstract_inverted_index":null,"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}