{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1995684847","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140206","title":"Professional economic forecasts: Are they worth their costs?","display_name":"Professional economic forecasts: Are they worth their costs?","publication_year":1995,"publication_date":"1995-03-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1995684847","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140206","mag":"1995684847"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.3980140206","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140206","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140206","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5050621285","display_name":"Gordon Leitch","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114832834","display_name":"Tulane University","ror":"https://ror.org/04vmvtb21","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114832834"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gordon Leitch","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tulane University, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tulane University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114832834"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5078979945","display_name":"J. Ernesttanner","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I114832834","display_name":"Tulane University","ror":"https://ror.org/04vmvtb21","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114832834"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"J. Ernesttanner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Tulane University, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Tulane University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114832834"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I114832834"],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.0897,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":66,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.85087339,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"14","issue":"2","first_page":"143","last_page":"157"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12368","display_name":"Grey System Theory Applications","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-evaluation","display_name":"forecast evaluation","score":0.8970000147819519},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interest-rate-determination","display_name":"interest rate determination","score":0.6480000019073486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-accuracy","display_name":"forecast accuracy","score":0.4860000014305115}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C174303752","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3624438","display_name":"Forecast error","level":2,"score":0.7998745441436768},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776892200","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7647093","display_name":"Survey of Professional Forecasters","level":3,"score":0.7144885659217834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6704723834991455},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C120954023","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1127277","display_name":"Consensus forecast","level":2,"score":0.6011049747467041},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5684698224067688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.34486478567123413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.16185462474822998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.08610469102859497}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/for.3980140206","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140206","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140206","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S122161766","display_name":"Journal of Forecasting","issn_l":"0277-6693","issn":["0277-6693","1099-131X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Forecasting","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":10,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1485474020","https://openalex.org/W1556645910","https://openalex.org/W1784126847","https://openalex.org/W1986253789","https://openalex.org/W2010061363","https://openalex.org/W2051464192","https://openalex.org/W2074507220","https://openalex.org/W2094891322","https://openalex.org/W2119145264","https://openalex.org/W2332033079"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7098825813","https://openalex.org/W1556645910","https://openalex.org/W2580465787","https://openalex.org/W2184033239","https://openalex.org/W1922055046","https://openalex.org/W3009772934","https://openalex.org/W1601385856","https://openalex.org/W7057796150","https://openalex.org/W2089770464","https://openalex.org/W7112866375"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Most":[1],"economic":[2],"forecast":[3,28,77],"evaluations":[4,32],"dating":[5],"back":[6],"20":[7],"years":[8],"show":[9],"that":[10,35,54,99],"professional":[11,37,100],"forecasters":[12],"add":[13],"little":[14,40],"to":[15,86,110],"the":[16,20,36,43,60,80,104,120],"forecasts":[17,38,68,102],"generated":[18],"by":[19],"simplest":[21],"of":[22,27],"models.":[23],"Using":[24,76],"various":[25],"types":[26],"error":[29,62,121],"criteria,":[30],"these":[31],"usually":[33],"conclude":[34],"are":[39,69,74],"better":[41],"than":[42],"no\u2010change":[44],"or":[45,71],"ARIM":[46],"A":[47],"type":[48],"forecast.":[49],"It":[50],"is":[51,57],"our":[52],"contention":[53],"this":[55,116],"conclusion":[56],"mistaken":[58],"because":[59],"conventional":[61],"criteria":[63],"may":[64],"not":[65],"capture":[66],"why":[67],"ma&":[70],"how":[72],"they":[73],"used.":[75],"directional":[78],"accuracy,":[79],"criterion":[81,118],"which":[82],"has":[83],"been":[84],"found":[85],"be":[87,111],"highly":[88],"correlated":[89],"with":[90],"profits":[91],"in":[92,124],"an":[93],"interest":[94],"rate":[95],"setting,":[96],"we":[97],"find":[98],"GNP":[101],"dominate":[103],"cheaper":[105],"alternatives.":[106],"Moreover,":[107],"there":[108],"appears":[109],"no":[112],"systematic":[113],"relationship":[114],"between":[115],"preferred":[117],"and":[119],"measures":[122],"used":[123],"previous":[125],"studies.":[126]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":10}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}