{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1995147694","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","title":"Accounting for Uncertainty in Health Economic Decision Models by Using Model Averaging","display_name":"Accounting for Uncertainty in Health Economic Decision Models by Using Model Averaging","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-02-03","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1995147694","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","mag":"1995147694","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19381329","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2667305"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00573.x","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"bronze","oa_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00573.x","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027207498","display_name":"Christopher H. Jackson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6656-8913","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6656-8913"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210134973","display_name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit","ror":"https://ror.org/046vje122","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I241749","https://openalex.org/I4210087105","https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I90344618","display_name":"Medical Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/03x94j517","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087105","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Christopher H. Jackson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Research Council, Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Research Council, Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5007606690","display_name":"Simon G. Thompson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-7814","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-7814","https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2307-2520"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210134973","display_name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit","ror":"https://ror.org/046vje122","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I241749","https://openalex.org/I4210087105","https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I90344618","display_name":"Medical Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/03x94j517","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087105","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Simon G. Thompson","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Research Council, Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Research Council, Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006979396","display_name":"Linda D. Sharples","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-966X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-966X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210134973","display_name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit","ror":"https://ror.org/046vje122","country_code":"GB","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I241749","https://openalex.org/I4210087105","https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I90344618","display_name":"Medical Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/03x94j517","country_code":"GB","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210087105","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Linda D. Sharples","raw_affiliation_strings":["Medical Research Council, Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Medical Research Council, Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5027207498"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210134973","https://openalex.org/I90344618"],"apc_list":{"value":2621,"currency":"GBP","value_usd":3456},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":17.9016,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":94,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.98942524,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":94,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"172","issue":"2","first_page":"383","last_page":"404"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10804","display_name":"Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life","score":0.9531000256538391,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10804","display_name":"Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life","score":0.9531000256538391,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.00839999970048666,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10845","display_name":"Advanced Causal Inference Techniques","score":0.005200000014156103,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-averaging","display_name":"model averaging","score":0.9860000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/structural-uncertainty","display_name":"structural uncertainty","score":0.7879999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-information-criterion","display_name":"Bayesian information criterion","score":0.7689999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/akaike-information-criterion","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","score":0.9670000076293945},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-selection","display_name":"model selection","score":0.5870000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/abdominal-aortic-aneurysm-repair","display_name":"abdominal aortic aneurysm repair","score":0.8799999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/surgical-technique-comparison","display_name":"surgical technique comparison","score":0.8920000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-power","display_name":"predictive power","score":0.5690000057220459},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/disease-progression-modeling","display_name":"disease progression modeling","score":0.5910000205039978}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126674687","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1662573","display_name":"Akaike information criterion","level":2,"score":0.9073842763900757},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6803025007247925},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C168136583","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1988242","display_name":"Bayesian information criterion","level":2,"score":0.6426405906677246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160234255","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812535","display_name":"Bayesian inference","level":3,"score":0.5524461269378662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.537094235420227},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119043178","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q320723","display_name":"Covariate","level":2,"score":0.4930572211742401},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119693030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2180497","display_name":"Economic model","level":2,"score":0.4349813461303711},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C93959086","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6888345","display_name":"Model selection","level":2,"score":0.43165600299835205},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.38079923391342163},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3495383858680725},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.3342619240283966},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2580052614212036},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00573.x","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2667305","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2667305","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"J R Stat Soc Ser A Stat Soc","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:19381329","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19381329","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)","raw_type":"Journal Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk:4652034","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://researchonline.lshtm.ac.uk/view/creators/emsulsha.html>;","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306402527","display_name":"LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I4210089966","host_organization_name":"London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210089966"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.811.3577","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.811.3577","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/e3/99/rssa0172-0383.PMC2667305.pdf","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2008.00573.x","pdf_url":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00573.x","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S185328345","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)","issn_l":"0964-1998","issn":["0964-1998","1467-985X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-2","ki-jl-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311763","host_organization_name":"Royal Statistical Society","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311763"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Royal Statistical Society"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.6600000262260437,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5240891814","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"U.1052.00.008","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G5793620585","display_name":null,"funder_award_id":"U.1052.00.001","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","funder_display_name":"Medical Research Council"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/G8448398537","display_name":"RENEWAL: Systematic approaches to the evaluation of emerging coronary risk markers. Large-scale epidemiological analyses of existing data and stored biological samples","funder_award_id":"RG/08/014/24067","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319992","funder_display_name":"British Heart Foundation"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320319992","display_name":"British Heart Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/02wdwnk04"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320334626","display_name":"Medical Research Council","ror":"https://ror.org/03x94j517"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1995147694.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1995147694.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":65,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W28412257","https://openalex.org/W42051514","https://openalex.org/W55848811","https://openalex.org/W85469694","https://openalex.org/W1480376833","https://openalex.org/W1488022545","https://openalex.org/W1565868658","https://openalex.org/W1603903339","https://openalex.org/W1800261609","https://openalex.org/W1836880685","https://openalex.org/W1922851081","https://openalex.org/W1966038674","https://openalex.org/W1967396577","https://openalex.org/W1968371014","https://openalex.org/W1974315578","https://openalex.org/W1981892038","https://openalex.org/W1983500792","https://openalex.org/W1985593448","https://openalex.org/W1986783130","https://openalex.org/W1990919534","https://openalex.org/W1994672023","https://openalex.org/W1994899332","https://openalex.org/W2008269266","https://openalex.org/W2009435671","https://openalex.org/W2032630769","https://openalex.org/W2034562813","https://openalex.org/W2045656233","https://openalex.org/W2051908617","https://openalex.org/W2057331441","https://openalex.org/W2057765075","https://openalex.org/W2058201684","https://openalex.org/W2058815839","https://openalex.org/W2061382057","https://openalex.org/W2065637266","https://openalex.org/W2067838071","https://openalex.org/W2078502317","https://openalex.org/W2078986689","https://openalex.org/W2081724349","https://openalex.org/W2082542772","https://openalex.org/W2084089095","https://openalex.org/W2085004729","https://openalex.org/W2085890860","https://openalex.org/W2098545770","https://openalex.org/W2101122849","https://openalex.org/W2106706098","https://openalex.org/W2108062065","https://openalex.org/W2110942668","https://openalex.org/W2111051773","https://openalex.org/W2117812871","https://openalex.org/W2129925362","https://openalex.org/W2143707047","https://openalex.org/W2145904121","https://openalex.org/W2146855196","https://openalex.org/W2159390189","https://openalex.org/W2159740989","https://openalex.org/W2163174010","https://openalex.org/W2330192890","https://openalex.org/W2502759836","https://openalex.org/W2506282021","https://openalex.org/W2526577390","https://openalex.org/W4211177544","https://openalex.org/W4231135067","https://openalex.org/W4232632925","https://openalex.org/W4250518393","https://openalex.org/W7058483311"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1565868658","https://openalex.org/W1995882043","https://openalex.org/W2036695741","https://openalex.org/W1578513217","https://openalex.org/W2106170387","https://openalex.org/W2065394176","https://openalex.org/W2043175922","https://openalex.org/W2623135498","https://openalex.org/W4414752190","https://openalex.org/W2808363984"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Health":[0],"economic":[1],"decision":[2,37],"models":[3,38,54,79],"are":[4,80],"subject":[5],"to":[6,63,136],"considerable":[7],"uncertainty,":[8],"much":[9],"of":[10,22,52,66,101,124],"which":[11],"arises":[12],"from":[13],"choices":[14,21],"between":[15],"several":[16],"plausible":[17],"model":[18,44,76,89],"structures,":[19],"e.g.":[20],"covariates":[23],"in":[24,36,126],"a":[25,64,99],"regression":[26],"model.":[27],"Such":[28],"structural":[29],"uncertainty":[30],"is":[31,115],"rarely":[32],"accounted":[33],"for":[34,70],"formally":[35],"but":[39],"can":[40],"be":[41],"addressed":[42],"by":[43,84],"averaging.":[45],"We":[46,60,109],"discuss":[47],"the":[48,56,94,112,120],"most":[49],"common":[50],"methods":[51],"averaging":[53],"and":[55,134],"principles":[57],"underlying":[58,122],"them.":[59],"apply":[61],"them":[62],"comparison":[65],"two":[67],"surgical":[68],"techniques":[69],"repairing":[71],"abdominal":[72],"aortic":[73],"aneurysms.":[74],"In":[75],"averaging,":[77],"competing":[78],"usually":[81],"either":[82],"weighted":[83],"using":[85],"an":[86],"asymptotically":[87],"consistent":[88],"assessment":[90],"criterion,":[91,97],"such":[92,104,129],"as":[93,105,130],"Bayesian":[95],"information":[96,107],"or":[98],"measure":[100],"predictive":[102,113],"ability,":[103],"Akaike's":[106],"criterion.":[108],"argue":[110],"that":[111],"approach":[114],"more":[116],"suitable":[117],"when":[118],"modelling":[119],"complex":[121],"processes":[123],"interest":[125],"health":[127],"economics,":[128],"individual":[131],"disease":[132],"progression":[133],"response":[135],"treatment.":[137]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":10},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}