{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1991760730","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350080703","title":"A model for predicting the outcomes of basketball games","display_name":"A model for predicting the outcomes of basketball games","publication_year":1994,"publication_date":"1994-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1991760730","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350080703","mag":"1991760730"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1002/acp.2350080703","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350080703","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350080703","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S91386000","display_name":"Applied Cognitive Psychology","issn_l":"0888-4080","issn":["0888-4080","1099-0720"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","cwts-core","dongbi-c","erih-plus","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Cognitive Psychology","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103080797","display_name":"Evan Heit","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3457-1816","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3457-1816"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I111979921","display_name":"Northwestern University","ror":"https://ror.org/000e0be47","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Evan Heit","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, 2029 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA","Northwestern University, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, 2029 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Northwestern University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5069804690","display_name":"Paul C. Price","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3518-2601","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3518-2601"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Paul C. Price","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Michigan, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Michigan, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109927555","display_name":"Gordon H. Bower","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gordon H. Bower","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5103080797"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I111979921"],"apc_list":{"value":2900,"currency":"USD","value_usd":2900},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":14,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.26506587,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":"7","first_page":"621","last_page":"639"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9491999745368958,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.9491999745368958,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10813","display_name":"Sport Psychology and Performance","score":0.03680000081658363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3204","display_name":"Developmental and Educational Psychology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/32","display_name":"Psychology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.009600000455975533,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sports-forecasting","display_name":"sports prediction","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/nba","display_name":"NBA","score":0.31299999356269836},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/feedback-learning","display_name":"feedback learning","score":0.6460000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-novice-differences","display_name":"expert-novice differences","score":0.8619999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-accuracy","display_name":"prediction accuracy","score":0.7170000076293945}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C103189561","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5372","display_name":"Basketball","level":2,"score":0.9707261323928833},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.7910517454147339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780451532","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q759676","display_name":"Task (project management)","level":2,"score":0.6304685473442078},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.5219906568527222},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142853389","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q744778","display_name":"Association (psychology)","level":2,"score":0.5179120898246765},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C75630572","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q538904","display_name":"Applied psychology","level":1,"score":0.45401516556739807},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.3913484811782837},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C145420912","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q853077","display_name":"Mathematics education","level":1,"score":0.32123100757598877},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.07286632061004639},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.06946662068367004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C542102704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q183257","display_name":"Psychotherapist","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C201995342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q682496","display_name":"Systems engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1002/acp.2350080703","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350080703","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.2350080703","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S91386000","display_name":"Applied Cognitive Psychology","issn_l":"0888-4080","issn":["0888-4080","1099-0720"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","cwts-core","dongbi-c","erih-plus","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Cognitive Psychology","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W976262496","https://openalex.org/W1488862666","https://openalex.org/W1541842937","https://openalex.org/W1547224907","https://openalex.org/W1963695443","https://openalex.org/W1980045680","https://openalex.org/W1987048036","https://openalex.org/W1998682090","https://openalex.org/W1999287391","https://openalex.org/W2012218966","https://openalex.org/W2015416230","https://openalex.org/W2016254919","https://openalex.org/W2025855734","https://openalex.org/W2033743788","https://openalex.org/W2036963181","https://openalex.org/W2048598409","https://openalex.org/W2057671637","https://openalex.org/W2072897587","https://openalex.org/W2073913380","https://openalex.org/W2075827348","https://openalex.org/W2092919341","https://openalex.org/W2161126629","https://openalex.org/W3016053933","https://openalex.org/W3149412023","https://openalex.org/W4207080468"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1978422067","https://openalex.org/W7115557004","https://openalex.org/W2091706878","https://openalex.org/W624199576","https://openalex.org/W2117270551","https://openalex.org/W6962841306","https://openalex.org/W2567665540","https://openalex.org/W7220631947","https://openalex.org/W6903936063","https://openalex.org/W2144064768"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"We":[1,72,125],"investigated":[2],"the":[3,7,22,36,41,44,48,58,62,64,78,85,88,95,102,122,128,131,135],"task":[4],"of":[5,9,24,27,43,47,54,61,81,87,104,117,130],"predicting":[6],"outcomes":[8,23],"sporting":[10],"events,":[11],"in":[12,40,69],"particular,":[13],"basketball":[14],"games.":[15,32],"In":[16],"two":[17],"experiments,":[18,120],"college":[19],"students":[20],"predicted":[21],"a":[25,52,109],"series":[26],"National":[28],"Basketball":[29],"Association":[30],"(NBA)":[31],"Following":[33],"each":[34],"prediction,":[35],"subject":[37],"received":[38],"feedback":[39],"form":[42],"actual":[45],"outcome":[46],"NBA":[49],"game.":[50],"After":[51],"period":[53],"initial":[55],"learning":[56,119,133],"about":[57,134],"relative":[59],"strengths":[60],"teams,":[63],"subjects":[65,96],"were":[66,97],"surprisingly":[67],"successful":[68],"their":[70],"predictions.":[71],"examined":[73],"expert\u2013novice":[74],"differences":[75],"by":[76,94,139],"comparing":[77],"published":[79],"predictions":[80,86,93,103],"professional":[82],"oddsmakers":[83],"to":[84,121],"experimental":[89],"subjects.":[90],"The":[91],"average":[92],"approximately":[98],"as":[99,101,114],"accurate":[100],"experts.":[105],"Finally,":[106],"we":[107],"applied":[108],"mathematical":[110],"model,":[111],"developed":[112],"originally":[113],"an":[115],"account":[116],"simpler":[118],"subjects'":[123,132],"responses.":[124],"found":[126],"that":[127],"course":[129],"teams":[136],"was":[137],"well\u2010described":[138],"this":[140],"model.":[141]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}