{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1985654154","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000761","title":"Subjective Likelihood for the Assessment of Trends in the Ocean's Mixed-Layer Depth","display_name":"Subjective Likelihood for the Assessment of Trends in the Ocean's Mixed-Layer Depth","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1985654154","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000761","mag":"1985654154"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1198/016214507000000761","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000761","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000761","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4394736638","display_name":"Journal of the American Statistical Association","issn_l":"0162-1459","issn":["0162-1459","1537-274X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Statistical Association","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006962848","display_name":"Ana Grohovac Rappold","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7696-0900","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7696-0900"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ana Grohovac Rappold","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708  (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke  University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708  (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke  University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5038341754","display_name":"Michael Lavine","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1798-3619","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1798-3619"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Michael Lavine","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708  (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke  University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708  (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke  University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033038860","display_name":"M. Susan Lozier","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4129-6349","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4129-6349"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I170897317","display_name":"Duke University","ror":"https://ror.org/00py81415","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Susan Lozier","raw_affiliation_strings":["Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708  (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke  University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Ana Grohovac Rappold is National Research Council Associate at US EPA, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708  (currently employed by the EPA). Michael Lavine is Professor, Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708 . Susan Lozier is Professor and Chair, Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke  University, Durham, NC 27708 . The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation's Collaboration in Mathematical Geosciences program","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I170897317"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.2658,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":5,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.56374119,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"102","issue":"479","first_page":"771","last_page":"780"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10255","display_name":"Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes","score":0.5371000170707703,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10255","display_name":"Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes","score":0.5371000170707703,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1910","display_name":"Oceanography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.27079999446868896,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12056","display_name":"Markov Chains and Monte Carlo Methods","score":0.026799999177455902,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mixed-layer-depth","display_name":"mixed layer depth","score":0.8820000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trend-assessment","display_name":"trend assessment","score":0.546999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-inference","display_name":"Bayesian inference","score":0.5210000276565552},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expert-elicitation","display_name":"expert elicitation","score":0.8830000162124634},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/posterior-distribution","display_name":"posterior distribution","score":0.7670000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/temperature-profiles","display_name":"temperature profiles","score":0.6230000257492065}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C89106044","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45284","display_name":"Likelihood function","level":3,"score":0.6678667068481445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122120755","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2043905","display_name":"Mixed layer","level":2,"score":0.6348378658294678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5822644233703613},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5365073680877686},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.49983930587768555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49781872","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1045555","display_name":"Maximum likelihood","level":2,"score":0.46989962458610535},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C114289077","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3284399","display_name":"Statistical model","level":2,"score":0.4592667818069458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.4377063810825348},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C16012445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1501135","display_name":"Mixed model","level":2,"score":0.4327372610569},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.39617493748664856},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3782917857170105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.35611027479171753},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2860490679740906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.25650885701179504},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.25391629338264465},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.06725820899009705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78458016","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840400","display_name":"Evolutionary biology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1198/016214507000000761","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000761","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000761","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4394736638","display_name":"Journal of the American Statistical Association","issn_l":"0162-1459","issn":["0162-1459","1537-274X"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Statistical Association","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.490.4776","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.490.4776","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://people.duke.edu/~mslozier/Publications/Rappold.Lavine.Lozier_2007.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:bes:jnlasa:v:102:y:2007:m:september:p:771-780","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/asa/jasa/2007/00000102/00000479/art00001","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14","score":1.0,"display_name":"Life below water"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/14","score":0.8700000047683716,"display_name":"Life below water"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":8,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1520585082","https://openalex.org/W1979986323","https://openalex.org/W1980832980","https://openalex.org/W2017741412","https://openalex.org/W2027543152","https://openalex.org/W2065637266","https://openalex.org/W2066678696","https://openalex.org/W2084840427"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2013921918","https://openalex.org/W2019724159","https://openalex.org/W4243231361","https://openalex.org/W4280508323","https://openalex.org/W2371672232","https://openalex.org/W3151346708","https://openalex.org/W1591411095","https://openalex.org/W2088686292","https://openalex.org/W2540019423","https://openalex.org/W2103185490"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"article":[1],"describes":[2],"a":[3],"Bayesian":[4],"statistical":[5],"analysis":[6],"of":[7,13],"long-term":[8],"changes":[9],"in":[10],"the":[11,14,53,58],"depth":[12],"ocean's":[15],"mixed":[16],"layer.":[17],"The":[18],"data":[19,50],"are":[20],"thermal":[21],"profiles":[22],"recorded":[23],"by":[24],"ships.":[25],"For":[26],"these":[27],"data,":[28],"there":[29],"is":[30,43],"no":[31,37],"good":[32],"sampling":[33],"model":[34],"and":[35,61],"thus":[36],"obvious":[38],"likelihood":[39,59],"function.":[40],"Our":[41],"approach":[42],"to":[44],"elicit":[45],"posterior":[46],"distributions":[47],"for":[48],"training":[49],"directly":[51],"from":[52],"expert.":[54],"We":[55],"then":[56],"infer":[57],"function":[60],"use":[62],"it":[63],"on":[64],"large":[65],"datasets.":[66]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2025-10-10T00:00:00"}