{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1972025873","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2004.0017","title":"Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War","display_name":"Testing Novel Implications from the Selectorate Theory of War","publication_year":2004,"publication_date":"2004-04-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1972025873","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2004.0017","mag":"1972025873"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1353/wp.2004.0017","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2004.0017","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2004.0017","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S143110675","display_name":"World Politics","issn_l":"0043-8871","issn":["0043-8871","1086-3338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"World Politics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004218412","display_name":"Bruce Bueno de Mesquita","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8582-8330","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8582-8330"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1286498122","display_name":"Hoover Institution","ror":"https://ror.org/04ce9mt19","country_code":"US","type":"facility","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1286498122"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Bruce Bueno de Mesquita","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford's Hoover Institution"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford's Hoover Institution","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1286498122"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5019869086","display_name":"James D. Morrow","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8657-4106","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8657-4106"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","display_name":"University of Michigan","ror":"https://ror.org/00jmfr291","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"James D. Morrow","raw_affiliation_strings":["(University of Michigan)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"(University of Michigan)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011416424","display_name":"Randolph M. Siverson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9815-5745","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9815-5745"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I84218800","display_name":"University of California, Davis","ror":"https://ror.org/05rrcem69","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I84218800"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Randolph M. Siverson","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of California at Davis"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California at Davis","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I84218800"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5045144421","display_name":"Alastair Michael Smith","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5291-1442","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5291-1442"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I57206974","display_name":"New York University","ror":"https://ror.org/0190ak572","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alastair Smith","raw_affiliation_strings":["New York University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"New York University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I57206974"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":4,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.0676,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":152,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94757847,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":95,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"56","issue":"3","first_page":"363","last_page":"388"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.6973000168800354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10070","display_name":"Political Conflict and Governance","score":0.6973000168800354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.2919999957084656,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.004399999976158142,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/political-regimes","display_name":"political regimes","score":0.6759999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/democracy","display_name":"democracy","score":0.5540000200271606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/authoritarian-regimes","display_name":"authoritarian regimes","score":0.9919999837875366},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coalition-size","display_name":"coalition size","score":0.625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/war-onset","display_name":"war onset","score":0.4490000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/willingness-to-fight","display_name":"willingness to fight","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/crisis-escalation","display_name":"crisis escalation","score":0.3499999940395355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/demobilization","display_name":"demobilization","score":0.6549999713897705}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779220109","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q50000","display_name":"Victory","level":3,"score":0.9684377908706665},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C143095724","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q515895","display_name":"Odds","level":3,"score":0.8787732720375061},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C81631423","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10859","display_name":"Spanish Civil War","level":2,"score":0.5564908981323242},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138921699","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47555","display_name":"Political economy","level":1,"score":0.5216034650802612},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C14036430","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3736076","display_name":"Function (biology)","level":2,"score":0.497407466173172},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.46770069003105164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777042776","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4583103","display_name":"Preparedness","level":2,"score":0.46146801114082336},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C28719098","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q44946","display_name":"Point (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.42986568808555603},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.29525911808013916},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.2699388265609741},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.2552468776702881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.14173847436904907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.12321606278419495},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C78458016","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q840400","display_name":"Evolutionary biology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1353/wp.2004.0017","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2004.0017","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2004.0017","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S143110675","display_name":"World Politics","issn_l":"0043-8871","issn":["0043-8871","1086-3338"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310311721","host_organization_name":"Cambridge University Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310311721","https://openalex.org/P4310311702"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Cambridge University Press","University of Cambridge"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"World Politics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:muse.jhu.edu:/article/174812","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://muse.jhu.edu/article/174812","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4377196299","display_name":"Project Muse (Johns Hopkins University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I145311948","host_organization_name":"Johns Hopkins University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I145311948"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","score":0.8999999761581421}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","score":0.44999998807907104}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":21,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W134999508","https://openalex.org/W590714071","https://openalex.org/W1496621393","https://openalex.org/W1535643370","https://openalex.org/W1965659488","https://openalex.org/W1987673617","https://openalex.org/W2001651667","https://openalex.org/W2030548645","https://openalex.org/W2110488634","https://openalex.org/W2127529110","https://openalex.org/W2135035101","https://openalex.org/W2140862674","https://openalex.org/W2144967122","https://openalex.org/W2152526885","https://openalex.org/W2312236592","https://openalex.org/W2781547222","https://openalex.org/W4205407107","https://openalex.org/W4234392844","https://openalex.org/W4243463098","https://openalex.org/W4389658588","https://openalex.org/W6605521265"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4321788447","https://openalex.org/W2379951838","https://openalex.org/W1998121956","https://openalex.org/W1766806247","https://openalex.org/W744345554","https://openalex.org/W4283587897","https://openalex.org/W7095225590","https://openalex.org/W3122417068","https://openalex.org/W3045210189","https://openalex.org/W2139464841"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,26,181],"authors":[1,182],"tested":[2],"five":[3],"novel":[4],"hypotheses":[5,27],"derived":[6],"from":[7],"the":[8,23,83,113,165,188,208],"selectorate":[9,189],"theory":[10],"of":[11,46,85,110,127,148,156,159,167],"war":[12,47,111,149,152,194,209],"with":[13,187],"data":[14],"for":[15],"up":[16],"to":[17,29,62,68,79,102,143,196,204],"about":[18,124,132],"140":[19],"states":[20],"and":[21,48],"spanning":[22],"years":[24],"1816\u20131993.":[25],"point":[28],"subtle":[30],"differences":[31],"in":[32,64,76,99,105,140,145,151,185],"selection":[33],"effects":[34],"across":[35],"regime":[36],"types":[37],"that":[38,43,107,191],"should":[39],"operate":[40],"during":[41,50],"crises":[42],"fall":[44,108],"short":[45,109,147],"also":[49,92,183],"wars.":[51],"Leaders":[52],"who":[53],"rely":[54],"on":[55,177],"a":[56,154,178,193],"large":[57],"coalition":[58],"(such":[59],"as":[60,153],"democrats)":[61],"remain":[63],"office":[65],"are":[66,87,91,115,121,131,169,175],"shown":[67],"be":[69],"more":[70,93,215],"selective":[71,94,123],"than":[72,95,129,202,217],"their":[73,77,96,100,141,157],"small-coalition":[74,97],"counterparts":[75,98],"willingness":[78,101],"fight":[80],"wars":[81],"when":[82,112,207],"odds":[84,114,158,166],"victory":[86,168],"not":[88,116],"overwhelming.":[89],"They":[90],"take":[103],"part":[104],"disputes":[106,146],"exceptionally":[117],"favorable.":[118],"However,":[119],"they":[120,130,174],"less":[122],"this":[125],"form":[126],"participation":[128],"war.":[133],"Small-coalition":[134],"leaders":[135],"show":[136],"no":[137],"such":[138],"selectivity":[139],"preparedness":[142],"engage":[144],"or":[150,172],"function":[155],"victory.":[160],"These":[161],"results":[162],"hold":[163],"whether":[164,173],"assessed":[170],"continuously":[171],"based":[176],"specific":[179],"threshold.":[180],"find,":[184],"keeping":[186],"theory,":[190],"if":[192],"fails":[195],"resolve":[197],"quickly,":[198],"democrats":[199,212],"try":[200],"harder":[201],"autocrats":[203],"win.":[205],"And":[206],"is":[210],"over,":[211],"demobilize":[213],"much":[214],"slowly":[216],"autocrats.":[218]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":37},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":7},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":10}],"updated_date":"2026-10-27T15:51:10.671819","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
