{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1967413498","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1384128021000066116","title":"The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures","display_name":"The Pattern of IMF Lending: An Analysis of Prediction Failures","publication_year":2002,"publication_date":"2002-09-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1967413498","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1384128021000066116","mag":"1967413498"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/1384128021000066116","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1384128021000066116","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1384128021000066116","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S123628622","display_name":"The Journal of Policy Reform","issn_l":"1384-1289","issn":["1384-1289","1477-2736"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of Policy Reform","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5105515958","display_name":"Graham Bird","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1089-8435","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1089-8435"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28290843","display_name":"University of Surrey","ror":"https://ror.org/00ks66431","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28290843"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Graham Bird","raw_affiliation_strings":["Surrey Centre for International Economic Studies/Norman Paterson School of International Affairs"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Surrey Centre for International Economic Studies/Norman Paterson School of International Affairs","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28290843"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5033391753","display_name":"Dane Rowlands","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6338-9867","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6338-9867"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I28290843","display_name":"University of Surrey","ror":"https://ror.org/00ks66431","country_code":"GB","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28290843"]}],"countries":["GB"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Dane Rowlands","raw_affiliation_strings":["Surrey Centre for International Economic Studies/Norman Paterson School of International Affairs"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Surrey Centre for International Economic Studies/Norman Paterson School of International Affairs","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28290843"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I28290843"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":2.7372,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":22,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91687122,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"5","issue":"3","first_page":"173","last_page":"186"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.8515999913215637,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.8515999913215637,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11168","display_name":"International Development and Aid","score":0.13379999995231628,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3303","display_name":"Development"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14112","display_name":"Economic, financial, and policy analysis","score":0.004800000227987766,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/imf-lending","display_name":"IMF lending","score":0.8989999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/international-monetary-fund","display_name":"International Monetary Fund","score":0.9160000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prediction-failure","display_name":"prediction failure","score":0.7820000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/borrowing-decisions","display_name":"borrowing decisions","score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/developing-countries","display_name":"developing countries","score":0.45500001311302185},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/imf-conditionality","display_name":"IMF conditionality","score":0.3959999978542328}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.6072402000427246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.48586198687553406},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C160050368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q132453","display_name":"Developed country","level":3,"score":0.4410534203052521},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18547055","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47417","display_name":"International economics","level":1,"score":0.36707639694213867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.3446982502937317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.32925736904144287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.24804580211639404},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.06452202796936035},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0556645393371582},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.0526522696018219},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/1384128021000066116","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1384128021000066116","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1384128021000066116","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S123628622","display_name":"The Journal of Policy Reform","issn_l":"1384-1289","issn":["1384-1289","1477-2736"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of Policy Reform","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:jpolrf:v:5:y:2002:i:3:p:173-186","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1384128021000066116","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:alma.44SUR_INST:11140007380002346","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://openresearch.surrey.ac.uk/esploro/outputs/journalArticle/The-Pattern-of-IMF-Lending-An/99516415702346","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210197018","display_name":"Open Research (University of Surrey)","issn_l":"2688-268X","issn":["2688-268X","2688-3988"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":true,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","doaj","dongbi-c","poland-20","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:epubs.surrey.ac.uk:818895","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/818895/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400680","display_name":"Surrey Research Insight Open Access (The University of Surrey)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I28290843","host_organization_name":"University of Surrey","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I28290843"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320309249","display_name":"University of Miami","ror":"https://ror.org/02dgjyy92"}],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":18,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W35089035","https://openalex.org/W81911340","https://openalex.org/W1564296375","https://openalex.org/W1852010642","https://openalex.org/W1996728671","https://openalex.org/W1999265059","https://openalex.org/W2009537928","https://openalex.org/W2061418885","https://openalex.org/W2069201017","https://openalex.org/W2080836388","https://openalex.org/W2083743897","https://openalex.org/W2083975938","https://openalex.org/W2089040919","https://openalex.org/W2106042232","https://openalex.org/W2132340558","https://openalex.org/W2137737165","https://openalex.org/W2326500992","https://openalex.org/W2605703384"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1636041303","https://openalex.org/W2083743897","https://openalex.org/W2132340558","https://openalex.org/W1754769022","https://openalex.org/W3162432757","https://openalex.org/W7096867396","https://openalex.org/W1015784081","https://openalex.org/W7099582653","https://openalex.org/W6966303773","https://openalex.org/W7101144702"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"recent":[1],"years,":[2],"the":[3,26,56,85],"International":[4],"Monetary":[5],"Fund":[6,39,57],"has":[7,19],"seen":[8],"a":[9],"spate":[10],"of":[11,14,28,84],"critical":[12],"analyses":[13],"its":[15],"lending":[16,30,40],"activities.":[17],"It":[18],"even":[20],"been":[21],"suggested":[22],"that":[23,62,76],"politics":[24],"influences":[25],"allocation":[27],"IMF":[29],"with":[31],"powerful":[32],"industrialized":[33],"countries":[34,53,69],"being":[35],"able":[36],"to":[37,41,81,88],"use":[38],"further":[42],"their":[43],"own":[44],"ambitions.":[45],"We":[46,79],"ask":[47],"simple":[48],"questions?":[49],"Why":[50,66],"did":[51,67],"some":[52],"borrow":[54,71],"from":[55],"when":[58,72],"our":[59,73,97],"models":[60,74],"predicted":[61,75],"they":[63,77],"would":[64],"not?":[65],"other":[68],"not":[70],"would?":[78],"resort":[80],"qualitative":[82],"analysis":[83],"individual":[86],"cases":[87],"see":[89],"whether":[90],"we":[91],"can":[92],"retrospectively":[93],"and":[94],"reasonably":[95],"explain":[96],"prediction":[98],"failures.":[99]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}