{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1964790476","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102","title":"Determinants of the Outcomes of U.S. Senate Elections","display_name":"Determinants of the Outcomes of U.S. Senate Elections","publication_year":1986,"publication_date":"1986-05-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1964790476","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102","mag":"1964790476"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2307/2131102","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S95650557","display_name":"The Journal of Politics","issn_l":"0022-3816","issn":["0022-3816","1468-2508"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315672","host_organization_name":"University of Chicago Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315672","https://openalex.org/P4310315690"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Chicago Press","University of Chicago"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of Politics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5001022177","display_name":"Alan I. Abramowitz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1649-3471","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1649-3471"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I59553526","display_name":"Stony Brook University","ror":"https://ror.org/05qghxh33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Alan I. Abramowitz","raw_affiliation_strings":["","State University of New York at Stony Brook"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"State University of New York at Stony Brook","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5108377647","display_name":"Jeffrey A. Segal","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8405-8346","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8405-8346"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I59553526","display_name":"Stony Brook University","ror":"https://ror.org/05qghxh33","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jeffrey A. Segal","raw_affiliation_strings":["","State University of New York at Stony Brook"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"","institution_ids":[]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"State University of New York at Stony Brook","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I59553526"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":42.0629,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":68,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99682601,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"48","issue":"2","first_page":"433","last_page":"439"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10108","display_name":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","score":0.9994999766349792,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13445","display_name":"American Constitutional Law and Politics","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13718","display_name":"Media Influence and Politics","score":9.999999747378752e-05,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3312","display_name":"Sociology and Political Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/u-s-senate-elections","display_name":"U.S. Senate elections","score":0.9729999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/election-results","display_name":"election results","score":0.6110000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/presidential-popularity","display_name":"presidential popularity","score":0.9959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/1986-elections","display_name":"1986 elections","score":0.8109999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/election-forecasting","display_name":"election forecasting","score":0.453000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/income-and-voting","display_name":"income and voting","score":0.34299999475479126}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586970","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1357284","display_name":"Popularity","level":2,"score":0.879224956035614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C197487636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q49892","display_name":"Presidential system","level":3,"score":0.7942638993263245},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.579781711101532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127598652","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q558635","display_name":"Per capita","level":3,"score":0.5246988534927368},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778334786","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1586270","display_name":"Variation (astronomy)","level":2,"score":0.4940531551837921},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C4249254","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3044431","display_name":"Demographic economics","level":1,"score":0.48328688740730286},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776129789","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q858439","display_name":"Presidential election","level":3,"score":0.4673353135585785},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777267654","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3519023","display_name":"Test (biology)","level":2,"score":0.4379713833332062},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138921699","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q47555","display_name":"Political economy","level":1,"score":0.4285944402217865},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775924081","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q55608371","display_name":"Control (management)","level":2,"score":0.41681450605392456},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3116431","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q31728","display_name":"Public administration","level":1,"score":0.37558794021606445},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.34461551904678345},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.23211905360221863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.17518940567970276},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.13818871974945068},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.1235799789428711},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.05234375596046448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C187736073","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2920921","display_name":"Management","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44870925","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37547","display_name":"Astrophysics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2307/2131102","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S95650557","display_name":"The Journal of Politics","issn_l":"0022-3816","issn":["0022-3816","1468-2508"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","erih-plus","jufo-3","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310315672","host_organization_name":"University of Chicago Press","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310315672","https://openalex.org/P4310315690"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["University of Chicago Press","University of Chicago"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Journal of Politics","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"No poverty","score":0.7799999713897705,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/1"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":11,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1966743310","https://openalex.org/W2038568477","https://openalex.org/W2054333736","https://openalex.org/W2063236012","https://openalex.org/W2097908050","https://openalex.org/W2137791744","https://openalex.org/W2147900534","https://openalex.org/W2314311938","https://openalex.org/W2318835776","https://openalex.org/W2323156767","https://openalex.org/W2325418907"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2132236942","https://openalex.org/W1978916149","https://openalex.org/W1972679475","https://openalex.org/W2074590296","https://openalex.org/W7101080466","https://openalex.org/W2065017182","https://openalex.org/W2897698090","https://openalex.org/W2146903694","https://openalex.org/W7221826676","https://openalex.org/W2045929436"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Though":[0],"House":[1],"election":[2],"outcomes":[3],"have":[4],"received":[5],"much":[6],"attention":[7,12],"in":[8,31,46,94],"recent":[9],"years,":[10],"comparable":[11],"has":[13],"not":[14],"been":[15],"paid":[16],"to":[17,79],"the":[18,64,68,83],"Senate.":[19],"We":[20],"test":[21],"a":[22],"model":[23,60,70,75],"of":[24,42,52,63,89],"Senate":[25,54],"seat":[26],"change":[27],"that":[28],"includes":[29],"changes":[30,93],"per":[32],"capita":[33],"real":[34,95],"disposable":[35,96],"income,":[36],"presidential":[37,90],"popularity,":[38],"and":[39,67,92],"party":[40],"control":[41],"seats":[43],"at":[44],"stake":[45],"an":[47],"election.":[48],"The":[49,73],"data":[50],"consist":[51],"all":[53],"elections":[55,85],"since":[56],"1920.":[57],"A":[58],"partial":[59],"explains":[61],"38%":[62],"adjusted":[65],"variation,":[66],"full":[69,74],"almost":[71],"50%.":[72],"is":[76],"then":[77],"used":[78],"predict":[80],"results":[81],"for":[82],"1986":[84],"over":[86],"various":[87],"levels":[88],"popularity":[91],"income.":[97]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-09-21T07:43:02.447757","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
