{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1964076649","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500215394","title":"Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis","display_name":"Do equity index industry groups improve forecasts of inflation and production? A US analysis","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-08-20","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1964076649","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500215394","mag":"1964076649"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1080/00036840500215394","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500215394","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500215394","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201533460","display_name":"Applied Economics","issn_l":"0003-6846","issn":["0003-6846","1466-4283"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5090982800","display_name":"Frank Browne","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Frank Browne","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5048130081","display_name":"David T. Doran","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David Doran *","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.094,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":13,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93224313,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":96},"biblio":{"volume":"37","issue":"15","first_page":"1801","last_page":"1812"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.421099990606308,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.421099990606308,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.22630000114440918,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.2061000019311905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/s-p-500","display_name":"S&P 500","score":0.7879999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/industrial-production-forecasting","display_name":"industrial production forecasting","score":0.5049999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-forecasting","display_name":"inflation forecasting","score":0.9539999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-market-indicators","display_name":"financial market indicators","score":0.6589999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/out-of-sample-forecasting","display_name":"out-of-sample forecasting","score":0.6990000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/industrial-production-index","display_name":"industrial production index","score":0.6629999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/consumer-price-index","display_name":"consumer price index","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/causality","display_name":"causality","score":0.3799999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-economy","display_name":"United States economy","score":0.41200000047683716}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C64341305","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4919225","display_name":"Bivariate analysis","level":2,"score":0.8251201510429382},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.7279848456382751},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6878523826599121},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199728807","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2578557","display_name":"Equity (law)","level":2,"score":0.6481655836105347},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.6398804187774658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C174634509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4200716","display_name":"Industrial production index","level":3,"score":0.5742271542549133},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C178131030","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q631360","display_name":"Price index","level":2,"score":0.5540529489517212},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.5292170643806458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.5274924039840698},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C82753439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1419090","display_name":"Industrial production","level":2,"score":0.45214423537254333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778348673","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q739302","display_name":"Production (economics)","level":2,"score":0.4312276840209961},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.3775012195110321},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.26686951518058777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.245889812707901},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.15274116396903992},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.12521228194236755},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1080/00036840500215394","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500215394","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500215394","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S201533460","display_name":"Applied Economics","issn_l":"0003-6846","issn":["0003-6846","1466-4283"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-3","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Applied Economics","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:15:p:1801-1812","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500215394","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":9,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1574176173","https://openalex.org/W1980388690","https://openalex.org/W2011582763","https://openalex.org/W2069830243","https://openalex.org/W2102680945","https://openalex.org/W2108731026","https://openalex.org/W2178225550","https://openalex.org/W3123823245","https://openalex.org/W4234722734"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7213597544","https://openalex.org/W4401502078","https://openalex.org/W3110715343","https://openalex.org/W2271514282","https://openalex.org/W7112858194","https://openalex.org/W1972465829","https://openalex.org/W7162635956","https://openalex.org/W2296273781","https://openalex.org/W6885158726","https://openalex.org/W1639390414"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0],"study":[1],"develops":[2],"a":[3,11,38,115],"new":[4],"financial":[5],"market":[6],"indicator,":[7],"which":[8,56],"may":[9],"be":[10,47],"useful":[12],"addition":[13],"to":[14,46,63,148],"analysing":[15],"real":[16],"activity":[17],"in":[18,42,78,125],"the":[19,23,26,34,48,58,79,85,99,111,118,126,136,149,156],"US.":[20],"By":[21],"taking":[22],"ratio":[24],"of":[25,29,33,75,98,110,117,123,146],"price":[27,59],"return":[28,60],"equity":[30],"industry":[31,40,50],"groups":[32],"S&P":[35],"500":[36],"over":[37],"benchmark":[39],"group,":[41,51],"this":[43],"case":[44],"taken":[45],"Utilities":[49],"an":[52,105],"indicator":[53],"is":[54],"created":[55],"represents":[57],"performance":[61],"specific":[62],"each":[64,97],"individual":[65],"industry.":[66],"We":[67],"then":[68],"perform":[69],"recursive":[70],"pseudo":[71],"out-of-sample":[72],"bivariate":[73,112],"forecasts":[74,113,122,145],"future":[76],"changes":[77,124,147],"Industrial":[80],"Production":[81],"Index":[82,88],"(IPI)":[83],"and":[84,93,101,128,140],"Consumer":[86],"Price":[87],"(CPI)":[89],"at":[90],"3-month,":[91],"6-month":[92],"12-month":[94],"horizons":[95],"using":[96,114],"indicators":[100,119],"compare":[102],"results":[103,109],"against":[104],"AR":[106,157],"forecast.":[107],"The":[108],"number":[116],"produce":[120],"better":[121],"IPI":[127],"are":[129],"also":[130],"significant":[131],"for":[132,135],"causality,":[133],"both":[134],"full":[137],"sample":[138],"period":[139],"when":[141],"tested":[142],"recursively.":[143],"Bivariate":[144],"CPI,":[150],"however,":[151],"do":[152],"not":[153],"improve":[154],"upon":[155],"forecasts.":[158]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-09-22T06:50:58.402377","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}