{"id":"https://openalex.org/W193537633","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","title":"Predicting the course of AIDS in Australia","display_name":"Predicting the course of AIDS in Australia","publication_year":1990,"publication_date":"1990-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W193537633","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","mag":"193537633","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2215308"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S13978405","display_name":"The Medical Journal of Australia","issn_l":"0025-729X","issn":["0025-729X","1326-5377"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Medical Journal of Australia","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5104056252","display_name":"P. J. Solomon","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I118347636","display_name":"Australian National University","ror":"https://ror.org/019wvm592","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Patricia J Solomon","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Centre for Epidemiology and Population HealthThe Australian National UniversityGPO Box 4CanberraACT2601"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Centre for Epidemiology and Population HealthThe Australian National UniversityGPO Box 4CanberraACT2601","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103839148","display_name":"Susan R. Wilson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I118347636","display_name":"Australian National University","ror":"https://ror.org/019wvm592","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Susan R Wilson","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Centre for Epidemiology and Population HealthThe Australian National UniversityGPO Box 4CanberraACT2601"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Centre for Epidemiology and Population HealthThe Australian National UniversityGPO Box 4CanberraACT2601","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I118347636"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5052871866","display_name":"Cheryl E. Swanson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8872-3750","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8872-3750"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I31746571","display_name":"UNSW Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Cheryl E Swanson","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Centre for HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Faculty of MedicineThe University of New South Wales150 Albion StreetSurry HillsNSW2010"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Centre for HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Faculty of MedicineThe University of New South Wales150 Albion StreetSurry HillsNSW2010","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5107834622","display_name":"David A. Cooper","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I31746571","display_name":"UNSW Sydney","ror":"https://ror.org/03r8z3t63","country_code":"AU","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}],"countries":["AU"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"David A Cooper","raw_affiliation_strings":["National Centre for HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Faculty of MedicineThe University of New South Wales150 Albion StreetSurry HillsNSW2010"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"National Centre for HIV Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Faculty of MedicineThe University of New South Wales150 Albion StreetSurry HillsNSW2010","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I31746571"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.343,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":7,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.91201697,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"153","issue":"7","first_page":"386","last_page":"394"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.4884999990463257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.4884999990463257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2739","display_name":"Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10082","display_name":"HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions","score":0.48559999465942383,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2725","display_name":"Infectious Diseases"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10410","display_name":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","score":0.015699999406933784,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2611","display_name":"Modeling and Simulation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hiv-aids-epidemic","display_name":"HIV/AIDS epidemic","score":0.7110000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hiv-incidence","display_name":"HIV incidence","score":0.8489999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-forecasting","display_name":"epidemic forecasting","score":0.777999997138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/epidemic-modeling","display_name":"epidemic modeling","score":0.843999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-growth-model","display_name":"exponential growth model","score":0.9139999747276306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regional-variation","display_name":"regional variation","score":0.6259999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/zidovudine","display_name":"zidovudine","score":0.9509999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/public-health-planning","display_name":"public health planning","score":0.6259999871253967},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care-resource-allocation","display_name":"healthcare resource allocation","score":0.800000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/australia","display_name":"Australia","score":0.6800000071525574}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61511704","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1671857","display_name":"Incidence (geometry)","level":2,"score":0.6840486526489258},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C3013748606","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q15787","display_name":"Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)","level":2,"score":0.5791837573051453},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.4999978542327881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780216070","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q198504","display_name":"Zidovudine","level":4,"score":0.4544052481651306},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.44108492136001587},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.4147310256958008},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.35049933195114136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.34296685457229614},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C203014093","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q101929","display_name":"Immunology","level":1,"score":0.26475265622138977},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.22010579705238342},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780727368","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1928978","display_name":"Viral disease","level":3,"score":0.15635406970977783},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.08394286036491394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2524010","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8087","display_name":"Geometry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000163","descriptor_name":"Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D000163","descriptor_name":"Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome","qualifier_ui":"Q000635","qualifier_name":"transmission","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D001315","descriptor_name":"Australia","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004196","descriptor_name":"Disease Outbreaks","qualifier_ui":"Q000706","qualifier_name":"statistics & numerical data","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":"Q000379","qualifier_name":"methods","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015233","descriptor_name":"Models, Statistical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D015497","descriptor_name":"HIV-1","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015994","descriptor_name":"Incidence","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D016015","descriptor_name":"Logistic Models","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.5694/j.1326-5377.1990.tb125495.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S13978405","display_name":"The Medical Journal of Australia","issn_l":"0025-729X","issn":["0025-729X","1326-5377"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-100","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Medical Journal of Australia","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:2215308","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2215308","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Medical journal of Australia","raw_type":"Comparative Study"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.8048999905586243,"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":3,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W138334268","https://openalex.org/W1646921610","https://openalex.org/W1999993998"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2414913343","https://openalex.org/W1977074138","https://openalex.org/W1980451694","https://openalex.org/W7058232133","https://openalex.org/W7135760279","https://openalex.org/W2007815165","https://openalex.org/W1585007975","https://openalex.org/W2102117080","https://openalex.org/W2525620385","https://openalex.org/W1971616898"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"There":[0],"have":[1],"been":[2],"urgent":[3],"demands":[4],"for":[5,22,33,112,233,298,313],"knowledge":[6,39],"about":[7],"the":[8,11,41,54,57,70,79,95,117,134,139,143,155,162,168,171,181,184,191,217,221,234,246,280,286,294,320],"epidemic":[9,172],"of":[10,27,40,46,56,69,72,81,89,119,131,157,170,183,224,238,289,296,325],"acquired":[12],"immunodeficiency":[13,48],"syndrome":[14],"(AIDS)":[15],"in":[16,114,167,271],"Australia.":[17],"Accurate":[18],"predictions":[19,61,83,232,247,297,309],"are":[20,124,266,311],"important":[21],"efficient":[23],"allocation":[24],"and":[25,43,149,180,263,275,322],"planning":[26],"limited":[28],"health-care":[29],"resources.":[30],"Ideal":[31],"data":[32,68,97,225],"this":[34,75,209],"purpose":[35],"would":[36],"be":[37,64,269],"reliable":[38,307],"past":[42,321],"present":[44,323],"incidence":[45,55,71,324],"human":[47],"virus":[49],"(HIV)":[50],"infection.":[51],"However,":[52,243],"since":[53],"infection":[58,327],"is":[59,258,291,303,328],"unknown":[60],"can":[62],"only":[63],"based":[65],"on":[66,319],"historical":[67],"AIDS.":[73],"In":[74,105],"article,":[76],"we":[77,107],"show":[78],"limitations":[80],"such":[82],"by":[84,215,244],"examining":[85],"a":[86,109,150,189,299],"broad":[87],"range":[88,295],"mathematical":[90],"models":[91,127,218,229],"that":[92,260,284,310],"successfully":[93],"track":[94],"observed":[96,121,174,287],"(1187":[98],"cases":[99,120,265,290],"diagnosed":[100,270],"to":[101,142,203,219,253,268],"December":[102],"31,":[103],"1988).":[104],"addition,":[106],"describe":[108],"simple":[110,135],"method":[111],"prediction":[113,282],"subgroups":[115],"where":[116],"numbers":[118],"so":[122],"far":[123],"small.":[125],"Four":[126],"representing":[128],"different":[129],"forms":[130],"departure":[132],"from":[133,154,195,226,251,279],"exponential":[136],"model":[137],"provide":[138],"best":[140],"fits":[141,212],"Australian":[144],"AIDS":[145],"data.":[146],"Regional":[147],"variability":[148,166],"possible":[151],"effect":[152],"resulting":[153],"introduction":[156],"zidovudine":[158],"were":[159,213],"incorporated":[160],"into":[161],"models.":[163],"Significant":[164],"regional":[165],"course":[169],"was":[173],"between":[175,261,273],"New":[176],"South":[177],"Wales,":[178],"Victoria":[179],"rest":[182],"country.":[185],"For":[186,306],"Australia":[187,272],"as":[188],"whole,":[190],"doubling":[192],"time":[193,301],"changed":[194],"less":[196],"than":[197,205],"one":[198],"year":[199,236],"before":[200],"mid":[201],"1987":[202],"more":[204],"two":[206],"years":[207,223],"after":[208],"time.":[210],"Model":[211],"improved":[214],"fitting":[216],"just":[220],"four":[222],"1985.":[227],"The":[228,277],"give":[230],"comparable":[231],"first":[235],"(1989)":[237],"around":[239],"600":[240],"new":[241,255],"cases.":[242,256],"1993":[245],"vary":[248],"considerably,":[249],"ranging":[250],"500":[252],"2300":[254],"It":[257],"predicted":[259],"3100":[262],"6700":[264],"likely":[267],"1989":[274],"1993.":[276],"results":[278],"subgroup":[281],"demonstrate":[283],"when":[285],"number":[288],"small,":[292],"then":[293],"future":[300],"interval":[302],"very":[304],"wide.":[305],"long-term":[308],"necessary":[312],"public":[314],"health":[315],"planning,":[316],"basic":[317],"information":[318],"HIV":[326],"urgently":[329],"needed.":[330]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}