{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1894724345","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12181","title":"Confidence Matters for Current Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area and the United States*","display_name":"Confidence Matters for Current Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area and the United States*","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-06-09","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1894724345","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12181","mag":"1894724345"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/ssqu.12181","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12181","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12181","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S76728445","display_name":"Social Science Quarterly","issn_l":"0038-4941","issn":["0038-4941","1540-6237"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Social Science Quarterly","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5079717544","display_name":"Gabe Jacob de Bondt","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3236-8577","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3236-8577"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I153515283","display_name":"European Central Bank","ror":"https://ror.org/00ajckn66","country_code":"DE","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1320481043","https://openalex.org/I153515283"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gabe J. de Bondt","raw_affiliation_strings":["European Central Bank"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"European Central Bank","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I153515283"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027807581","display_name":"Stefano Schiaffi","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3149-785X","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3149-785X"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I71209653","display_name":"Bocconi University","ror":"https://ror.org/05crjpb27","country_code":"IT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I71209653"]}],"countries":["IT"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Stefano Schiaffi","raw_affiliation_strings":["Bocconi University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Bocconi University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71209653"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5027807581"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I71209653"],"apc_list":{"value":3010,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3010},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.9555,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":16,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94319247,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":97},"biblio":{"volume":"96","issue":"4","first_page":"1027","last_page":"1040"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9932000041007996,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9932000041007996,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10393","display_name":"Economic Growth and Productivity","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11742","display_name":"Economic Theory and Policy","score":0.0012000000569969416,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/economic-confidence","display_name":"economic confidence","score":0.7300000190734863},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/real-gdp-growth","display_name":"real GDP growth","score":0.7979999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/purchasing-managers-index","display_name":"Purchasing Managers' Index","score":0.9399999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycles","display_name":"business cycles","score":0.8410000205039978},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/recession","display_name":"economic recession","score":0.5509999990463257},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/smooth-transition-regression","display_name":"smooth transition regression","score":0.8100000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sentiment-index","display_name":"sentiment index","score":0.6909999847412109},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/euro-area","display_name":"euro area","score":0.703000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/united-states","display_name":"United States","score":0.8040000200271606}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.6981047987937927},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C96405632","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128416","display_name":"Consumer confidence index","level":2,"score":0.6419821381568909},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.6131510138511658},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44249647","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208498","display_name":"Confidence interval","level":2,"score":0.5979302525520325},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202353208","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1167393","display_name":"Economic indicator","level":2,"score":0.484239786863327},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83873408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192311","display_name":"Business cycle","level":2,"score":0.4636003077030182},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C181683161","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7301159","display_name":"Real gross domestic product","level":2,"score":0.4607817232608795},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.446397602558136},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777382242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6017816","display_name":"Index (typography)","level":2,"score":0.445556640625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51110983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16503490","display_name":"Overconfidence effect","level":2,"score":0.4118736982345581},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C163068380","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3409313","display_name":"Economic forecasting","level":2,"score":0.4100736975669861},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C139719470","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39680","display_name":"Macroeconomics","level":1,"score":0.34682297706604004},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.31680095195770264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.15153828263282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.14413109421730042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.09335356950759888},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C136764020","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q466","display_name":"World Wide Web","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/ssqu.12181","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12181","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.12181","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S76728445","display_name":"Social Science Quarterly","issn_l":"0038-4941","issn":["0038-4941","1540-6237"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Social Science Quarterly","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:bla:socsci:v:96:y:2015:i:4:p:1027-1040","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ssqu.12181","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"score":0.6452000141143799,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8"}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"score":0.75,"display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8"}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":32,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W10429817","https://openalex.org/W1488113616","https://openalex.org/W1530332922","https://openalex.org/W1553386920","https://openalex.org/W1774901748","https://openalex.org/W1969426121","https://openalex.org/W1976829779","https://openalex.org/W2004048317","https://openalex.org/W2022592888","https://openalex.org/W2038799475","https://openalex.org/W2057989832","https://openalex.org/W2066988046","https://openalex.org/W2069792303","https://openalex.org/W2074812030","https://openalex.org/W2118649058","https://openalex.org/W2119365207","https://openalex.org/W2132978003","https://openalex.org/W2140802458","https://openalex.org/W2151036863","https://openalex.org/W2158686541","https://openalex.org/W2163065315","https://openalex.org/W2596872306","https://openalex.org/W2797062887","https://openalex.org/W2992128960","https://openalex.org/W3021685756","https://openalex.org/W3121786260","https://openalex.org/W3122065816","https://openalex.org/W3122158423","https://openalex.org/W3122292697","https://openalex.org/W3122447631","https://openalex.org/W4241475595","https://openalex.org/W4289257402"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2247628937","https://openalex.org/W3019109547","https://openalex.org/W3121470507","https://openalex.org/W2116009201","https://openalex.org/W1549754079","https://openalex.org/W1761624537","https://openalex.org/W2729477486","https://openalex.org/W4313822349","https://openalex.org/W4400045403","https://openalex.org/W7017759652"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Objectives":[0],"The":[1],"literature":[2],"typically":[3],"undervalues":[4],"the":[5,15,40,44,56,73,127,131,153],"economy\u2010wide":[6],"importance":[7],"of":[8,68,84,130],"confidence,":[9],"despite":[10],"a":[11,50,66,81],"renewed":[12],"interest":[13],"since":[14],"recent":[16],"financial":[17],"crisis":[18],"in":[19,39,47,104,152],"considering":[20],"also":[21],"psychological":[22],"factors":[23],"such":[24],"as":[25,88],"confidence.":[26,120],"This":[27,109],"study":[28],"empirically":[29],"assesses":[30],"whether":[31],"confidence":[32,63,85,151],"matters":[33,99],"for":[34,80,100,119,125],"current":[35,128],"real":[36,69],"GDP":[37,70],"growth":[38,71,148],"euro":[41],"area":[42],"and":[43,53,78,106,117,143],"United":[45],"States":[46],"addition":[48],"to":[49,65,90],"widely":[51],"applied":[52],"reliable":[54],"predictor,":[55],"Purchasing":[57],"Managers\u2019":[58],"Index.":[59],"Methods":[60],"We":[61],"add":[62],"indicators":[64],"regression":[67],"on":[72],"composite":[74],"PMI":[75],"output":[76],"index":[77],"check":[79],"different":[82],"impact":[83],"during":[86],"recessions":[87],"opposed":[89],"expansions":[91],"by":[92,149],"applying":[93],"smooth":[94],"transition":[95],"regressions.":[96],"Results":[97],"Confidence":[98,122],"economic":[101],"growth,":[102],"both":[103],"good":[105],"bad":[107],"times.":[108],"result":[110],"is":[111,123],"robust":[112],"across":[113],"sample":[114],"periods,":[115],"models,":[116],"proxies":[118],"Conclusions":[121],"essential":[124],"assessing":[126],"stage":[129],"business":[132],"cycle.":[133],"Analysts":[134],"should":[135],"therefore":[136],"closely":[137],"monitor":[138],"sentiment":[139],"swings,":[140],"whereas":[141],"private":[142],"public":[144],"decisionmakers":[145],"can":[146],"boost":[147],"improving":[150],"economy.":[154]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}