{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1807932507","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308603110","title":"Does model-free forecasting really outperform the true model?","display_name":"Does model-free forecasting really outperform the true model?","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-10-07","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1807932507","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308603110","mag":"1807932507","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24101454","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3801002"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.1308603110","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308603110","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308603110","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"letter","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["arxiv","crossref","datacite","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3801002","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5002648105","display_name":"Florian Hartig","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6255-9059","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6255-9059"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161046081","display_name":"University of Freiburg","ror":"https://ror.org/0245cg223","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Florian Hartig","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, 79106, Freiburg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, 79106, Freiburg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5075919156","display_name":"Carsten F. Dormann","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9835-1794","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9835-1794"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161046081","display_name":"University of Freiburg","ror":"https://ror.org/0245cg223","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Carsten F. Dormann","raw_affiliation_strings":["Department of Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, 79106, Freiburg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Department of Biometry and Environmental System Analysis, University of Freiburg, 79106, Freiburg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161046081"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":19,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"110","issue":"42","first_page":"E3975","last_page":"E3975"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.8984000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10482","display_name":"Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models","score":0.8984000086784363,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11236","display_name":"Control Systems and Identification","score":0.01590000092983246,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2207","display_name":"Control and Systems Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10243","display_name":"Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference","score":0.012600000016391277,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-dynamics","display_name":"population dynamics","score":0.4169999957084656},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/chaotic-dynamics","display_name":"chaotic dynamics","score":0.8769999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-state-space-model","display_name":"Bayesian state-space model","score":0.925000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/parameter-estimation-bias","display_name":"parameter estimation bias","score":0.8180000185966492},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mechanistic-model","display_name":"mechanistic model","score":0.5789999961853027},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecological-forecasting","display_name":"ecological forecasting","score":0.5989999771118164},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/model-misspecification","display_name":"model misspecification","score":0.49000000953674316}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780586882","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7520643","display_name":"Simple (philosophy)","level":2,"score":0.6707502603530884},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5328681468963623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C107673813","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q812534","display_name":"Bayesian probability","level":2,"score":0.5214052200317383},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777052490","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5072826","display_name":"Chaotic","level":2,"score":0.5110905766487122},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.4569653868675232},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.4551711678504944},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779377595","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21045424","display_name":"Approximate Bayesian computation","level":3,"score":0.43466541171073914},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.37740734219551086},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2982032895088196},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.25695669651031494},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149923435","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37732","display_name":"Demography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144024400","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21201","display_name":"Sociology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776214188","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q408386","display_name":"Inference","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D008954","descriptor_name":"Models, Biological","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D017753","descriptor_name":"Ecosystem","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true}],"locations_count":6,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1073/pnas.1308603110","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308603110","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1308603110","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S125754415","display_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","issn_l":"0027-8424","issn":["0027-8424","1091-6490"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","erih-plus","jufo-3","ki-jl-3","medline","norway-2","poland-200","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320052","host_organization_name":"National Academy of Sciences","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320052"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Academy of Sciences"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2965263","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3801002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:24101454","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24101454","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","raw_type":"Letter"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3801002","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3801002/","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:arXiv.org:1305.3544","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://arxiv.org/abs/1305.3544","pdf_url":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1305.3544","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"text"},{"id":"doi:10.48550/arxiv.1305.3544","doi":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1305.3544","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.1305.3544","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400194","display_name":"arXiv (Cornell University)","issn_l":"2331-8422","issn":["2331-8422"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I205783295","host_organization_name":"Cornell University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I205783295"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article-journal"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2965263","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/3801002","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1807932507.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1807932507.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":5,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1983820721","https://openalex.org/W1994024572","https://openalex.org/W2092124742","https://openalex.org/W2119204307","https://openalex.org/W2136133754"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W6891691684","https://openalex.org/W2119204307","https://openalex.org/W1512036929","https://openalex.org/W3011334923","https://openalex.org/W2055276496","https://openalex.org/W1989002946","https://openalex.org/W2045582574","https://openalex.org/W199208430","https://openalex.org/W4234292328","https://openalex.org/W7095811630"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Estimating":[0],"population":[1],"models":[2],"from":[3],"uncertain":[4],"observations":[5],"is":[6],"an":[7],"important":[8],"problem":[9,23],"in":[10],"ecology.":[11],"Perretti":[12,52],"et":[13,53],"al.":[14,54],"observed":[15],"that":[16,57],"standard":[17],"Bayesian":[18],"state-space":[19],"solutions":[20],"to":[21,46,55,80],"this":[22],"may":[24],"provide":[25],"biased":[26],"parameter":[27],"estimates":[28,40],"when":[29],"the":[30,61,75,82],"underlying":[31],"dynamics":[32],"are":[33],"chaotic.":[34],"Consequently,":[35],"forecasts":[36],"based":[37],"on":[38],"these":[39],"showed":[41],"poor":[42],"predictive":[43],"accuracy":[44],"compared":[45],"simple":[47,72],"\"model-free\"":[48],"methods,":[49],"which":[50],"lead":[51],"conclude":[56],"\"Model-free":[58],"forecasting":[59],"outperforms":[60],"correct":[62],"mechanistic":[63],"model":[64],"for":[65],"simulated":[66],"and":[67,84],"experimental":[68],"data\".":[69],"However,":[70],"a":[71],"modification":[73],"of":[74],"statistical":[76],"methods":[77],"also":[78],"suffices":[79],"remove":[81],"bias":[83],"reverse":[85],"their":[86],"results.":[87]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-10T11:39:43.021295","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}