{"id":"https://openalex.org/W176752097","doi":null,"title":"Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change","display_name":"Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change","publication_year":2006,"publication_date":"2006-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W176752097","mag":"176752097"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.390.4099","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.390.4099","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/11-2/4wildcard-hiltunen.pdf","raw_type":"text"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011479357","display_name":"Elina Hiltunen","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2300-9972","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2300-9972"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Elina Hiltunen","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-2300-9972","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5011479357"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.5782,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":71,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93426251,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"11","issue":"2","first_page":"61","last_page":"74"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13149","display_name":"Organizational Change and Leadership","score":0.42410001158714294,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1407","display_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13149","display_name":"Organizational Change and Leadership","score":0.42410001158714294,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1407","display_name":"Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13204","display_name":"Competitive and Knowledge Intelligence","score":0.13259999454021454,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14345","display_name":"Scientific Research and Philosophical Inquiry","score":0.09989999979734421,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1405","display_name":"Management of Technology and Innovation"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wildcards","display_name":"wildcards","score":0.8379999995231628},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/gradual-change","display_name":"gradual change","score":0.9380000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/weak-signals","display_name":"weak signals","score":0.9129999876022339},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/surprise","display_name":"surprise","score":0.3580000102519989},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rapid-change","display_name":"rapid change","score":0.5350000262260437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/blind-spots","display_name":"blind spots","score":0.5070000290870667},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/change-detection","display_name":"change detection","score":0.3569999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/foresight","display_name":"foresight","score":0.30300000309944153}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166116840","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q465122","display_name":"Change blindness","level":3,"score":0.5692103505134583},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780929884","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q737460","display_name":"Blindness","level":2,"score":0.5432392954826355},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.42594075202941895},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C61797465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1188986","display_name":"Term (time)","level":2,"score":0.41021233797073364},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.3210187554359436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2918239235877991},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169760540","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q207011","display_name":"Neuroscience","level":1,"score":0.19406142830848694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C169900460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2200417","display_name":"Cognition","level":2,"score":0.12925690412521362},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.1276722550392151},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0997467041015625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119767625","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q618211","display_name":"Optometry","level":1,"score":0.0648072361946106},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C1276947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333","display_name":"Astronomy","level":1,"score":0.06291425228118896},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C44870925","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q37547","display_name":"Astrophysics","level":1,"score":0.0560775101184845}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.390.4099","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.390.4099","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/11-2/4wildcard-hiltunen.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:176752097","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.airitilibrary.com/Publication/Index?FirstID=10276084-200611-11-2-61-74-a","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S180232897","display_name":"Journal of futures studies","issn_l":"1027-6084","issn":["1027-6084"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-c","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-40","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319333","host_organization_name":"Tamkang University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319333"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Tamkang University"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Journal of futures studies","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":5,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W143656369","https://openalex.org/W581931258","https://openalex.org/W2084506001","https://openalex.org/W2186774743","https://openalex.org/W2327618756"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W403323490","https://openalex.org/W7034916763","https://openalex.org/W2971257162","https://openalex.org/W4212843220","https://openalex.org/W7057034361","https://openalex.org/W338747953","https://openalex.org/W2607215216","https://openalex.org/W4416325320","https://openalex.org/W3124461011","https://openalex.org/W2527568095"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,85],"paper":[1,86],"examines":[2],"the":[3,7,13,27,29,50,53,65,71,89],"different":[4],"definitions":[5],"of":[6,52,67,79,107],"term":[8],"wild":[9,14,33,57,68,92,114],"card.":[10],"Most":[11],"often":[12],"card":[15],"is":[16],"defined":[17],"as":[18,32],"a":[19,76,105],"surprising":[20],"event":[21],"that":[22,75],"has":[23],"significant":[24],"consequences.":[25],"In":[26],"literature":[28],"examples":[30,66],"labelled":[31],"cards":[34,58,69,93,115],"do":[35],"not":[36],"always":[37],"meet":[38],"this":[39],"definition.":[40],"I":[41,73],"have":[42],"divided":[43],"changes":[44,112],"into":[45],"two":[46],"categories":[47],"according":[48],"to":[49,110],"rapidity":[51],"change":[54],"taking":[55],"place:":[56],"and":[59,94,113],"gradual":[60,83,111],"changes.":[61,84],"By":[62],"looking":[63],"at":[64],"in":[70,116],"literature,":[72],"found":[74],"large":[77],"number":[78],"them":[80],"are":[81,98,104],"actually":[82],"also":[87],"clarifies":[88],"difference":[90],"between":[91],"weak":[95],"signals,":[96],"which":[97],"sometimes":[99],"considered":[100],"synonymous.":[101],"Weak":[102],"signals":[103],"means":[106],"avoiding":[108],"blindness":[109],"advance.":[117]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":8},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":5},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-11-12T12:28:57.059296","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}