{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1701948494","doi":null,"title":"\u0422\u0435\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0430 \u043e \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0432 \u0432 \u0448\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u043e\u044f\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0439. II.","display_name":"\u0422\u0435\u043e\u0440\u0435\u043c\u0430 \u043e \u0441\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0441\u0442\u0432\u043e\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0438\u0438 \u0440\u0430\u0437\u0440\u044b\u0432\u043e\u0432 \u0432 \u0448\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0435 \u0432\u0435\u0440\u043e\u044f\u0442\u043d\u043e\u0441\u0442\u0435\u0439. II.","publication_year":2010,"publication_date":"2010-02-08","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1701948494","mag":"1701948494"},"language":"ru","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai::22633","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016695883","display_name":"Alexander Harin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-4316","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-4316"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alexander Harin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-4316","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016695883"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9868000149726868,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.010200000368058681,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-scale","display_name":"probability scale","score":0.7799999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/allais-paradox","display_name":"Allais paradox","score":0.8100000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-theory","display_name":"decision theory","score":0.46299999952316284},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecasting","display_name":"forecasting","score":0.4959999918937683},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-utility","display_name":"expected utility","score":0.4819999933242798}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.6878458261489868},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.4718591868877411},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.43079009652137756}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai::22633","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},{"id":"mag:1701948494","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/pramprapa/22633.htm","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai::22633","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22633/1/MPRA_paper_22633.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1701948494.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1701948494.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2241696204","https://openalex.org/W1850466688","https://openalex.org/W7111610732","https://openalex.org/W766703255","https://openalex.org/W1485567289","https://openalex.org/W7112751291","https://openalex.org/W2146262685","https://openalex.org/W2237019243","https://openalex.org/W2291659342","https://openalex.org/W3184203224"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,13],"theorem":[1,14],"of":[2,4,43],"existence":[3],"ruptures":[5],"in":[6,19],"the":[7,34,40],"probability":[8],"scale":[9],"has":[10],"been":[11],"proved.":[12],"can":[15,24],"be":[16],"used,":[17],"e.g.,":[18],"economics":[20],"and":[21,33,37],"forecasting.":[22,44],"It":[23],"assist":[25],"to":[26,38],"solve":[27],"paradoxes":[28],"such":[29],"as":[30],"Allais":[31],"paradox":[32,36],"\u201cfour-fold-pattern\u201d":[35],"create":[39],"correcting":[41],"formula":[42]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-02T10:15:12.560889","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}