{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1688816596","doi":null,"title":"AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR INFLATION IN THE PHILIPPINES USING MARKOV-SWITCHING AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS","display_name":"AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR INFLATION IN THE PHILIPPINES USING MARKOV-SWITCHING AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1688816596","mag":"1688816596"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai::50078","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},"volume":null,"type":"report","is_traditional":false,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5046036111","display_name":"Christopher John Cruz","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8848-5927","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8848-5927"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4405255096","display_name":"Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas","ror":"https://ror.org/02m9sez84","country_code":"PH","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4405255096"]}],"countries":["PH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Christopher John Cruz","raw_affiliation_strings":["Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Philippines"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8848-5927","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Philippines","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4405255096"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":null,"display_name":"Claire Dennis S. Mapa","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I103911934","display_name":"University of the Philippines System","ror":"https://ror.org/02hqkr514","country_code":"PH","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I103911934"]}],"countries":["PH"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Claire Dennis S. Mapa","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of the Philippines School of Statistics, Philippines"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of the Philippines School of Statistics, Philippines","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I103911934"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":2,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":11,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":"4","issue":"2","first_page":"136","last_page":"150"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.9990000128746033,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.0005000000237487257,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/markov-switching-model","display_name":"Markov regime switching","score":0.8600000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/logistic-regression","display_name":"logistic regression","score":0.8560000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-targeting","display_name":"inflation targeting","score":0.9210000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bangko-sentral-ng-pilipinas","display_name":"Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas","score":0.906000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/monetary-policy","display_name":"monetary policy","score":0.8330000042915344},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/regime-classification","display_name":"regime classification","score":0.7429999709129333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/inflation-forecasting","display_name":"inflation forecasting","score":0.7900000214576721},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/philippines","display_name":"Philippines","score":0.703000009059906}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C200941418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q273508","display_name":"Inflation (cosmology)","level":2,"score":0.7695422768592834},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.7005826234817505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.6506970524787903},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C98763669","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176645","display_name":"Markov chain","level":2,"score":0.6190491914749146},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4832775890827179},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126285488","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178476","display_name":"Monetary policy","level":2,"score":0.4492826759815216},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185824701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1193759","display_name":"Inflation targeting","level":3,"score":0.4442009925842285},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C198531522","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q485146","display_name":"Sample (material)","level":2,"score":0.4435954988002777},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.2747441828250885},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.24065226316452026},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.16297966241836548},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33332235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q18362","display_name":"Theoretical physics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43617362","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170050","display_name":"Chromatography","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai::50078","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:pra:mprapa:50078","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:3125133030","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:50078","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:1688816596","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://journals.aserspublishing.eu/tpref/article/view/1216","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai::50078","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/50078/1/MPRA_paper_50078.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400553","display_name":"Munich Personal RePEc Archive (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I8204097","host_organization_name":"Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t M\u00fcnchen","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I8204097"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"MPRA Paper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1688816596.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1688816596.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":7,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1527119328","https://openalex.org/W1980349313","https://openalex.org/W2049633694","https://openalex.org/W2113929764","https://openalex.org/W2144026687","https://openalex.org/W2286201810","https://openalex.org/W3123946376"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2559721706","https://openalex.org/W2810615024","https://openalex.org/W3004246183","https://openalex.org/W1511431719","https://openalex.org/W2761700165","https://openalex.org/W2939544247","https://openalex.org/W1953645807","https://openalex.org/W7095795148","https://openalex.org/W1563498646","https://openalex.org/W4379398203"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"With":[0],"the":[1,4,11,23,30,54,60,74,86,90,93,103,115,122],"adoption":[2],"of":[3,10,56,63,76,88,92,95],"Bangko":[5],"Sentral":[6],"ng":[7],"Pilipinas":[8],"(BSP)":[9],"Inflation":[12],"Targeting":[13],"(IT)":[14],"framework":[15],"in":[16,22,59,114],"2002,":[17],"average":[18],"inflation":[19,32,58,67,97],"went":[20],"down":[21],"past":[24],"decade":[25],"from":[26],"historical":[27],"average.":[28],"However,":[29],"BSP\u2019s":[31,116],"targets":[33],"were":[34,68],"breached":[35],"several":[36],"times":[37],"since":[38],"2002.":[39],"Against":[40],"this":[41,43],"backdrop,":[42],"paper":[44],"develops":[45],"an":[46],"early":[47],"warning":[48],"system":[49],"(EWS)":[50],"model":[51,106],"for":[52],"predicting":[53],"occurrence":[55,94],"high":[57,64,96],"Philippines.":[61],"Episodes":[62],"and":[65,124],"low":[66],"identified":[69],"using":[70],"Markov-switching":[71],"models.":[72],"Using":[73],"outcomes":[75],"regime":[77],"classification,":[78],"logistic":[79],"regression":[80],"models":[81],"are":[82],"then":[83],"estimated":[84],"with":[85],"objective":[87],"quantifying":[89],"possibility":[91],"episodes.":[98],"Empirical":[99],"results":[100],"show":[101],"that":[102],"proposed":[104],"EWS":[105],"has":[107],"some":[108],"potential":[109],"as":[110],"a":[111],"complementary":[112],"tool":[113],"monetary":[117],"policy":[118],"formulation":[119],"based":[120],"on":[121],"in-sample":[123],"out-of":[125],"sample":[126],"forecasting":[127],"performance.":[128]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-03T10:50:19.383937","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}