{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1601563299","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","title":"Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the ERM 1979-1992","display_name":"Assessing Target Zone Credibility: Mean Reversion and Devaluation Expectations in the ERM 1979-1992","publication_year":1991,"publication_date":"1991-07-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1601563299","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","mag":"1601563299"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w3795","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5036609304","display_name":"Lars E.O. Svensson","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6492-1966","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6492-1966"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161593684","display_name":"Stockholm University","ror":"https://ror.org/05f0yaq80","country_code":"SE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161593684"]}],"countries":["SE"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Lars Svensson","raw_affiliation_strings":["STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY\u2028Stockholm, Sweden"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY\u2028Stockholm, Sweden","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161593684"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5036609304"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161593684"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":126,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.8198000192642212,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10503","display_name":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","score":0.8198000192642212,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.1737000048160553,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.0013000000035390258,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/european-exchange-rate-mechanism","display_name":"Exchange Rate Mechanism","score":0.828000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/devaluation-expectations","display_name":"devaluation expectations","score":0.8999999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mean-reversion","display_name":"mean reversion","score":0.9760000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/interest-rate-differentials","display_name":"interest rate differentials","score":0.8999999761581421},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-bands","display_name":"exchange rate bands","score":0.7020000219345093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/deutsche-mark","display_name":"Deutsche Mark","score":0.597000002861023},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expected-depreciation","display_name":"expected depreciation","score":0.6010000109672546},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/unit-roots","display_name":"unit roots","score":0.3070000112056732},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exchange-rate-forecasting","display_name":"exchange rate forecasting","score":0.4300000071525574}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70455891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q220788","display_name":"Devaluation","level":3,"score":0.8298848867416382},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C135205223","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q367137","display_name":"Mean reversion","level":2,"score":0.7972842454910278},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780224610","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1530061","display_name":"Credibility","level":2,"score":0.7235380411148071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5440463423728943},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C70883133","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7318316","display_name":"Reversion","level":4,"score":0.516316831111908},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.4007999897003174},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.37462180852890015},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776988154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q66100","display_name":"Exchange rate","level":2,"score":0.269548624753952},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.1521788239479065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0708392858505249},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C185592680","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2329","display_name":"Chemistry","level":0,"score":0.06286311149597168},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C55493867","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7094","display_name":"Biochemistry","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127716648","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q104053","display_name":"Phenotype","level":3,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C104317684","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7187","display_name":"Gene","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3386/w3795","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3795","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.nber.org/papers/w3795.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.nber.org/papers/w3795.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:1601563299","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=473947","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4210172589","display_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","issn_l":"1556-5068","issn":["1556-5068"],"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1318003438","host_organization_name":"RELX Group (Netherlands)","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1318003438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"SSRN Electronic Journal","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:2890598509","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3795","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:37:y:1993:i:4:p:763-793","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0014-2921(93)90087-Q","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w3795","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w3795","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1601563299.pdf"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W3122727427","https://openalex.org/W2726114581","https://openalex.org/W1544642531","https://openalex.org/W299339914","https://openalex.org/W6980082971","https://openalex.org/W2009911441","https://openalex.org/W2214271636","https://openalex.org/W3124416726","https://openalex.org/W2890306523","https://openalex.org/W2966683912"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,22,34,56,76],"paper":[1],"presents":[2],"estimates":[3,35],"of":[4,49,83,90],"devaluation":[5],"expectations":[6],"for":[7,16],"six":[8],"EMS":[9],"currencies":[10],"relative":[11],"to":[12],"the":[13,17,39,52,86,92],"Deutsche":[14],"mark,":[15],"period":[18],"March":[19],"1979-May":[20],"1990.":[21],"estimation":[23],"method":[24],"is":[25,58,78],"simple":[26],"and":[27,29],"operational,":[28],"consistently":[30],"generates":[31],"sensible":[32],"results.":[33],"are":[36,88],"constructed":[37],"by":[38,44],"adjusting":[40],"interest":[41,96],"rate":[42,54,97],"differentials":[43],"subtracting":[45],"estimated":[46],"expected":[47,81],"rates":[48,62,82],"depreciation":[50,84],"within":[51,63,85],"exchange":[53,61],"band.":[55],"adjustment":[57,77],"nontrivial":[59],"because":[60],"ERM":[64],"bands":[65],"display":[66],"mean":[67],"reversion":[68],"rather":[69],"than":[70],"random":[71],"walk":[72],"(unit":[73],"root)":[74],"behavior.":[75],"essential":[79],"since":[80],"band":[87],"usually":[89],"about":[91],"same":[93],"magnitude":[94],"as":[95],"differentials.":[98]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
