{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1600546281","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","title":"Future Longevity\u2014Demographic Concerns and Consequences","display_name":"Future Longevity\u2014Demographic Concerns and Consequences","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-07-12","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1600546281","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","mag":"1600546281","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16131357"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S204183829","display_name":"Journal of the American Geriatrics Society","issn_l":"0002-8614","issn":["0002-8614","1532-5415"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Geriatrics Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5053516833","display_name":"Kevin Kinsella","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1333512998","display_name":"United States Census Bureau","ror":"https://ror.org/01qn7cs15","country_code":"US","type":"government","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1333512998","https://openalex.org/I1343035065"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Kevin G. Kinsella","raw_affiliation_strings":["Population Division, International Programs Center, Bureau of the Census, Washington Plaza 2, Rm. 312, Washington, DC 20233, USA. kevin.g.kinsella@census.gov","From the Population Division, International Programs Center, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Population Division, International Programs Center, Bureau of the Census, Washington Plaza 2, Rm. 312, Washington, DC 20233, USA. kevin.g.kinsella@census.gov","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1333512998"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"From the Population Division, International Programs Center, Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1333512998"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5053516833"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1333512998"],"apc_list":{"value":4760,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4760},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":8.2746,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":37,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.96865779,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":98},"biblio":{"volume":"53","issue":"9s","first_page":"S299","last_page":"303"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":1.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12781","display_name":"Global Health Care Issues","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3600","display_name":"General Health Professions"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/36","display_name":"Health Professions"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10676","display_name":"Genetics, Aging, and Longevity in Model Organisms","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1302","display_name":"Aging"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/13","display_name":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/life-expectancy-projections","display_name":"life expectancy projections","score":0.8539999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mortality-trends","display_name":"mortality trends","score":0.6840000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/old-age-mortality","display_name":"old-age mortality","score":0.6980000138282776},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/centenarians","display_name":"centenarians","score":0.9509999752044678},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/population-aging","display_name":"population aging","score":0.5320000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/united-nations-population-projections","display_name":"United Nations population projections","score":0.5120000243186951}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2776759703","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1066907","display_name":"Longevity","level":2,"score":0.9416639804840088},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.9179872870445251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74909509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10387","display_name":"Gerontology","level":1,"score":0.49639326333999634}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000369","descriptor_name":"Aged, 80 and over","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000369","descriptor_name":"Aged, 80 and over","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000369","descriptor_name":"Aged, 80 and over","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000375","descriptor_name":"Aging","qualifier_ui":"Q000235","qualifier_name":"genetics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000375","descriptor_name":"Aging","qualifier_ui":"Q000235","qualifier_name":"genetics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000375","descriptor_name":"Aging","qualifier_ui":"Q000235","qualifier_name":"genetics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000375","descriptor_name":"Aging","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000375","descriptor_name":"Aging","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000375","descriptor_name":"Aging","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003710","descriptor_name":"Demography","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003710","descriptor_name":"Demography","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D003710","descriptor_name":"Demography","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D004777","descriptor_name":"Environment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004777","descriptor_name":"Environment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D004777","descriptor_name":"Environment","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006291","descriptor_name":"Health Policy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006291","descriptor_name":"Health Policy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006291","descriptor_name":"Health Policy","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008017","descriptor_name":"Life Expectancy","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008017","descriptor_name":"Life Expectancy","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008017","descriptor_name":"Life Expectancy","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":"Q000235","qualifier_name":"genetics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":"Q000235","qualifier_name":"genetics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":"Q000235","qualifier_name":"genetics","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008136","descriptor_name":"Longevity","qualifier_ui":"Q000502","qualifier_name":"physiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009026","descriptor_name":"Mortality","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009026","descriptor_name":"Mortality","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D009026","descriptor_name":"Mortality","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011157","descriptor_name":"Population Dynamics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011157","descriptor_name":"Population Dynamics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011157","descriptor_name":"Population Dynamics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011634","descriptor_name":"Public Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012737","descriptor_name":"Sex Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012737","descriptor_name":"Sex Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D012737","descriptor_name":"Sex Factors","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014480","descriptor_name":"United Nations","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014480","descriptor_name":"United Nations","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014480","descriptor_name":"United Nations","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014943","descriptor_name":"Global Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014943","descriptor_name":"Global Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D014943","descriptor_name":"Global Health","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2005.53494.x","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S204183829","display_name":"Journal of the American Geriatrics Society","issn_l":"0002-8614","issn":["0002-8614","1532-5415"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-a","doyens","jufo-3","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-1","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Geriatrics Society","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmid:16131357","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16131357","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of the American Geriatrics Society","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.504800021648407}],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"display_name":"Good health and well-being","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","score":0.6899999976158142}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":17,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1514533495","https://openalex.org/W1537377121","https://openalex.org/W1557926147","https://openalex.org/W1575338341","https://openalex.org/W1970111819","https://openalex.org/W1972328139","https://openalex.org/W1977009746","https://openalex.org/W1991519591","https://openalex.org/W2081969319","https://openalex.org/W2086924686","https://openalex.org/W2118780480","https://openalex.org/W2131386192","https://openalex.org/W2144223935","https://openalex.org/W2517375755","https://openalex.org/W2622676638","https://openalex.org/W4236749126","https://openalex.org/W6726129456"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W1973195960","https://openalex.org/W3206417835","https://openalex.org/W2314755568","https://openalex.org/W2946753917","https://openalex.org/W2016536660","https://openalex.org/W3126171941","https://openalex.org/W1507751080","https://openalex.org/W4234064352","https://openalex.org/W2176585005","https://openalex.org/W2046691975"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"One":[0],"of":[1,13,28,65,76,101,137,190,231],"gerontology's":[2],"most":[3,83],"intense":[4],"and":[5,30,94,106,151,228,248],"ongoing":[6],"debates":[7],"centers":[8],"around":[9],"the":[10,14,26,44,53,63,73,86,89,110,135,164,172,177,183,203,221],"future":[11,74,232],"shape":[12],"human":[15],"survival":[16],"curve.":[17],"Is":[18],"average":[19],"life":[20,48,149,161,195,225],"expectancy":[21,49,162,196,226],"destined":[22],"to":[23,42,212,219],"peak":[24],"between":[25],"ages":[27,124],"85":[29],"90,":[31],"as":[32],"some":[33,98,208],"would":[34],"argue,":[35],"or":[36],"will":[37],"new":[38,141],"ways":[39],"be":[40,130,213],"found":[41],"sustain":[43],"dramatic":[45],"increase":[46,157],"in":[47,61,82,97,158,194,199,224,240,246],"that":[50],"unfolded":[51],"during":[52,85,163],"20th":[54],"century?":[55],"This":[56],"article":[57],"considers":[58],"issues":[59],"inherent":[60,222],"projecting":[62],"number":[64,136],"tomorrow's":[66],"older":[67],"people,":[68],"with":[69,242],"a":[70,145,155,188,236],"focus":[71],"on":[72,148],"course":[75],"mortality.":[77],"Although":[78],"overall":[79],"mortality":[80,119,128,233],"declined":[81],"countries":[84,99],"past":[87,165],"century,":[88],"decline":[90],"has":[91,95,153],"been":[92,154],"irregular":[93],"reversed":[96],"because":[100],"unforeseen":[102],"epidemics,":[103],"cause-specific":[104],"changes,":[105],"sociopolitical":[107],"upheavals.":[108],"On":[109],"positive":[111],"side,":[112],"scientists":[113],"have":[114,144],"identified":[115],"several":[116],"promising":[117],"findings;":[118],"trajectories":[120],"at":[121,197],"very":[122],"old":[123],"may":[125],"decline,":[126],"old-age":[127],"can":[129],"altered":[131],"by":[132,171],"social":[133],"interventions,":[134],"centenarians":[138],"is":[139,217],"exploding,":[140],"chemical":[142],"entities":[143],"demonstrable":[146],"effect":[147],"expectancy,":[150],"there":[152],"linear":[156],"worldwide":[159],"record-setting":[160],"160":[166],"years.":[167],"New":[168],"projections":[169,186,227],"made":[170],"United":[173],"Nations":[174],"peer,":[175],"for":[176],"first":[178],"time,":[179],"300":[180],"years":[181,193],"into":[182],"future.":[184],"These":[185],"foresee":[187],"rise":[189],"about":[191],"25":[192],"birth":[198],"North":[200],"America":[201],"over":[202],"next":[204],"3":[205],"centuries,":[206],"which":[207],"experts":[209],"today":[210],"believe":[211],"quite":[214],"conservative.":[215],"It":[216],"important":[218],"recognize":[220],"uncertainty":[223],"how":[229],"assumptions":[230],"change":[234],"must-from":[235],"policy":[237],"perspective-be":[238],"considered":[239],"conjunction":[241],"potential":[243],"concomitant":[244],"changes":[245],"fertility":[247],"migration.":[249]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-10-14T16:39:01.820549","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}