{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1592008448","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430","title":"The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions","display_name":"The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions","publication_year":2017,"publication_date":"2017-11-16","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1592008448","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430","mag":"1592008448"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1111/jmcb.12430","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2058785","display_name":"Journal of money credit and banking","issn_l":"0022-2879","issn":["0022-2879","1538-4616"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-1","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Money, Credit and Banking","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2014/1114/ifdp1114.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004176790","display_name":"Lutz Kilian","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6847-8099","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6847-8099"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1317239608","display_name":"Federal Reserve","ror":"https://ror.org/05fk5tr28","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I4210140326","display_name":"Centre for Economic Policy Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04jzmdh37","country_code":"GB","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I4210140326"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I68415526","display_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas","ror":"https://ror.org/05ks2fq79","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I68415526"]}],"countries":["GB","US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"LUTZ KILIAN","raw_affiliation_strings":["Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)","Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I4210140326"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I68415526"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5022447808","display_name":"Robert John Vigfusson","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1317239608","display_name":"Federal Reserve","ror":"https://ror.org/05fk5tr28","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"ROBERT J. VIGFUSSON","raw_affiliation_strings":["Federal Reserve Bank"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Federal Reserve Bank","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":{"value":3800,"currency":"USD","value_usd":3800},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":21.1663,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":154,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.99284842,"is_in_top_1_percent":true,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":96,"max":100},"biblio":{"volume":"49","issue":"8","first_page":"1747","last_page":"1776"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11059","display_name":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","score":0.9976000189781189,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.002199999988079071,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11711","display_name":"COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts","score":0.0,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/oil-price-shocks","display_name":"oil price shocks","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/recession","display_name":"economic recession","score":0.9399999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-cycles","display_name":"business cycles","score":0.35100001096725464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/us-economy","display_name":"United States economy","score":0.5189999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/macroeconomic-effects-of-oil-prices","display_name":"macroeconomic effects of oil prices","score":0.5789999961853027}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.8280783891677856},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2984556133","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q297279","display_name":"Oil price","level":2,"score":0.8135533332824707},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195742910","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q176494","display_name":"Recession","level":2,"score":0.7320002913475037},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2993018946","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q488732","display_name":"Price shock","level":2,"score":0.542018473148346},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C556758197","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q580018","display_name":"Monetary economics","level":1,"score":0.5288206934928894},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781300812","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q178061","display_name":"Shock (circulatory)","level":2,"score":0.47787466645240784},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.35839563608169556},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165556158","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q83937","display_name":"Keynesian economics","level":1,"score":0.2977657914161682},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C126322002","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11180","display_name":"Internal medicine","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":10,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1111/jmcb.12430","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2058785","display_name":"Journal of money credit and banking","issn_l":"0022-2879","issn":["0022-2879","1538-4616"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a-star","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-1","jufo-2","norway-2","poland-140","russia-white-list-2","vabb-shw"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Money, Credit and Banking","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5743","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5743.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5743.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fip:fedgif:1114","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2014/1114/ifdp1114.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2014/1114/ifdp1114.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:zbw:cfswop:460","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/97616/1/787937215.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/97616/1/787937215.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10040","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=10040","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:8:p:1747-1776","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/jmcb.12430","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-027507430","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-338051","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"software, multimedia"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/128443","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128443","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/97616","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/97616","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:publikationen.ub.uni-frankfurt.de:33805","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:hebis:30:3-338051","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400432","display_name":"Publication Server of Goethe University Frankfurt am Main (Goethe University Frankfurt)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I114090438","host_organization_name":"Goethe University Frankfurt","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I114090438"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"workingpaper"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:fip:fedgif:1114","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2014/1114/ifdp1114.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2014/1114/ifdp1114.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/8","display_name":"Decent work and economic growth","score":0.4699999988079071}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1592008448.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1592008448.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":59,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1492887676","https://openalex.org/W1495009347","https://openalex.org/W1497112212","https://openalex.org/W1560350676","https://openalex.org/W1595367669","https://openalex.org/W1942773009","https://openalex.org/W1976182025","https://openalex.org/W1982442113","https://openalex.org/W1990431794","https://openalex.org/W1991754041","https://openalex.org/W2005025219","https://openalex.org/W2020340772","https://openalex.org/W2020706178","https://openalex.org/W2025753296","https://openalex.org/W2029442971","https://openalex.org/W2031057086","https://openalex.org/W2034700906","https://openalex.org/W2040461966","https://openalex.org/W2042883439","https://openalex.org/W2055344690","https://openalex.org/W2057989832","https://openalex.org/W2064075776","https://openalex.org/W2076847025","https://openalex.org/W2093220496","https://openalex.org/W2094858492","https://openalex.org/W2098052145","https://openalex.org/W2103727359","https://openalex.org/W2106451978","https://openalex.org/W2110623779","https://openalex.org/W2112938220","https://openalex.org/W2113375109","https://openalex.org/W2113983529","https://openalex.org/W2119623885","https://openalex.org/W2120025164","https://openalex.org/W2126438535","https://openalex.org/W2128324839","https://openalex.org/W2135860498","https://openalex.org/W2138107423","https://openalex.org/W2151670653","https://openalex.org/W2158366624","https://openalex.org/W2158810014","https://openalex.org/W2160677330","https://openalex.org/W2163585392","https://openalex.org/W2582945214","https://openalex.org/W2599397756","https://openalex.org/W2770058355","https://openalex.org/W3021811462","https://openalex.org/W3121131567","https://openalex.org/W3121322981","https://openalex.org/W3121861166","https://openalex.org/W3122131252","https://openalex.org/W3122568825","https://openalex.org/W3124211260","https://openalex.org/W3124642842","https://openalex.org/W3125034469","https://openalex.org/W3125365825","https://openalex.org/W3125525741","https://openalex.org/W3125982257","https://openalex.org/W4236584637"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2045564168","https://openalex.org/W1533326479","https://openalex.org/W3125502012","https://openalex.org/W3126074338","https://openalex.org/W2025753296","https://openalex.org/W7100019169","https://openalex.org/W2560425264","https://openalex.org/W7110664274","https://openalex.org/W7015828748","https://openalex.org/W2032314740"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],"Although":[1],"oil":[2,28,50,58,67,73,82],"price":[3,29,51,59,68,74,83],"shocks":[4,30,69],"have":[5],"long":[6],"been":[7],"viewed":[8],"as":[9],"one":[10],"of":[11,38,48,57,66,80],"the":[12,24,45,55,63,71,86,94,98],"leading":[13],"candidates":[14],"for":[15,77],"explaining":[16],"U.S.":[17],"recessions,":[18],"surprisingly":[19],"little":[20],"is":[21],"known":[22],"about":[23],"extent":[25],"to":[26,44],"which":[27],"explain":[31],"recessions.":[32],"We":[33,61],"provide":[34],"a":[35],"formal":[36],"analysis":[37],"this":[39],"question":[40],"with":[41],"special":[42],"attention":[43],"possible":[46],"role":[47],"net":[49,72,81],"increases":[52,84],"in":[53,70],"amplifying":[54],"transmission":[56],"shocks.":[60],"quantify":[62],"conditional":[64],"effect":[65],"increase":[75],"model":[76,96],"all":[78],"episodes":[79],"since":[85],"mid\u20101970s,":[87],"analyze":[88],"its":[89],"determinants,":[90],"and":[91],"show":[92],"that":[93],"linear":[95],"fits":[97],"data":[99],"better.":[100]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":22},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":21},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":20},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":13},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":16},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":12},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":6},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4}],"updated_date":"2026-10-16T09:59:22.235173","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
