{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1531397017","doi":null,"title":"What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence","display_name":"What is your level of overconfidence? A strictly incentive compatible measurement of absolute and relative overconfidence","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1531397017","mag":"1531397017"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:use:tkiwps:0920","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/309572/09_20.pdf","pdf_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/309572/09_20.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/309572","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5023389199","display_name":"Diemo Urbig","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8899-9722","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8899-9722"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I149899117","display_name":"Max Planck Society","ror":"https://ror.org/01hhn8329","country_code":"DE","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I149899117"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Urbig, D.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Max Planck Society"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Max Planck Society","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I149899117"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5025748557","display_name":"Julia Stauf","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I180923762","display_name":"University of Cologne","ror":"https://ror.org/00rcxh774","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I180923762"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Stauf, J.","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Cologne"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Cologne","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I180923762"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5061769997","display_name":"Utz Weitzel","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0493-9333","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0493-9333"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I193662353","display_name":"Utrecht University","ror":"https://ror.org/04pp8hn57","country_code":"NL","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193662353"]}],"countries":["NL"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Weitzel, U.","raw_affiliation_strings":["Utrecht university >  >  >  >"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Utrecht university >  >  >  >","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I193662353"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5150909271","display_name":"UU USE UCEME","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"UU USE UCEME","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5132944308","display_name":"Sub TKI","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sub TKI","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":2,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":15,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10646","display_name":"Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies","score":0.551800012588501,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10646","display_name":"Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies","score":0.551800012588501,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.44339999556541443,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11031","display_name":"Game Theory and Applications","score":0.0007999999797903001,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overconfidence","display_name":"overconfidence","score":0.9850000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incentive-compatibility","display_name":"incentive compatibility","score":0.8939999938011169},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/calibration","display_name":"calibration","score":0.6859999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cumulative-prospect-theory","display_name":"cumulative prospect theory","score":0.9049999713897705},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-preferences","display_name":"risk preferences","score":0.9269999861717224},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/self-assessment","display_name":"self-assessment","score":0.4830000102519989}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C51110983","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q16503490","display_name":"Overconfidence effect","level":2,"score":0.9925275444984436},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C29122968","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1414816","display_name":"Incentive","level":2,"score":0.765959620475769},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2781162219","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26250693","display_name":"Replicate","level":2,"score":0.6889411211013794},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177148314","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q170084","display_name":"Generalization","level":2,"score":0.5013666152954102},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.4999086856842041},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.42864933609962463},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.393105149269104},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.34892433881759644},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.327024906873703},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.3009568452835083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.24573242664337158},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.21848350763320923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C175444787","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39072","display_name":"Microeconomics","level":1,"score":0.20186054706573486},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.12395668029785156},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C134306372","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7754","display_name":"Mathematical analysis","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:use:tkiwps:0920","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/309572/09_20.pdf","pdf_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/309572/09_20.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/309572","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/309572","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401649","display_name":"Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I193662353","host_organization_name":"Utrecht University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193662353"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Working paper"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/322803","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/10419/322803","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:dspace.library.uu.nl:1874/309572","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/309572","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401649","display_name":"Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I193662353","host_organization_name":"Utrecht University","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I193662353"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Working paper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":49,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1541572574","https://openalex.org/W1607757271","https://openalex.org/W1966753272","https://openalex.org/W1969885648","https://openalex.org/W1975606010","https://openalex.org/W1976461877","https://openalex.org/W1980773669","https://openalex.org/W1992965280","https://openalex.org/W1999617766","https://openalex.org/W2009991554","https://openalex.org/W2017211257","https://openalex.org/W2019939391","https://openalex.org/W2020781803","https://openalex.org/W2024203452","https://openalex.org/W2029299621","https://openalex.org/W2029350946","https://openalex.org/W2039104542","https://openalex.org/W2041946752","https://openalex.org/W2043763623","https://openalex.org/W2045598034","https://openalex.org/W2054529337","https://openalex.org/W2056858714","https://openalex.org/W2064318775","https://openalex.org/W2076823895","https://openalex.org/W2085179770","https://openalex.org/W2100105359","https://openalex.org/W2100283348","https://openalex.org/W2102257552","https://openalex.org/W2107392085","https://openalex.org/W2117215384","https://openalex.org/W2122143050","https://openalex.org/W2124393642","https://openalex.org/W2128633294","https://openalex.org/W2128845303","https://openalex.org/W2131759431","https://openalex.org/W2137794586","https://openalex.org/W2141503762","https://openalex.org/W2144253690","https://openalex.org/W2145284651","https://openalex.org/W2151389603","https://openalex.org/W2160592232","https://openalex.org/W2480934990","https://openalex.org/W3121860914","https://openalex.org/W3123011311","https://openalex.org/W3123271477","https://openalex.org/W3123378903","https://openalex.org/W3123502919","https://openalex.org/W3124997451","https://openalex.org/W3125353710"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2513447527","https://openalex.org/W2018316259","https://openalex.org/W3123378903","https://openalex.org/W4400729840","https://openalex.org/W4386120903","https://openalex.org/W2805018635","https://openalex.org/W2952088882","https://openalex.org/W1734675635","https://openalex.org/W3123112958","https://openalex.org/W2767807782"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,74],"study":[1],"contributes":[2],"to":[3,35,40,64,71,102,172,182,193],"the":[4,8,41,46,51,62,68,106,116,124,137,169],"ongoing":[5],"discussion":[6],"on":[7],"appropriate":[9],"measurement":[10,19,78,117],"of":[11,25,43,48,79,87,108,118,121,127,168],"overconfidence,":[12],"in":[13,20,28],"particular,":[14],"its":[15],"strictly":[16,97],"incentive":[17,44,98],"compatible":[18,99],"experiments.":[21],"Despite":[22],"a":[23,77,148],"number":[24],"significant":[26],"advances":[27],"recent":[29,143],"research,":[30],"several":[31],"important":[32],"issues":[33],"remain":[34],"be":[36,151,173,183,194],"solved.":[37],"These":[38],"relate":[39],"strictness":[42],"compatibility,":[45],"identification":[47],"well-calibrated":[49,59],"participants,":[50,60],"trichotomous":[52],"classification":[53],"into":[54],"over-":[55],"or":[56],"underconfident":[57],"and":[58,61,100,123,129,136,145,155,188],"generalization":[63],"measuring":[65],"beliefs":[66],"about":[67,178],"performance":[69],"relative":[70,130],"other":[72],"people.":[73],"paper":[75],"develops":[76],"overconfidence":[80,122],"that":[81,93,147,163],"is":[82,96],"improved":[83],"regarding":[84],"all":[85],"four":[86],"these":[88],"issues.":[89],"We":[90,132],"theoretically":[91],"prove":[92],"our":[94,113,134,140,158],"method":[95,114],"robust":[101],"risk":[103],"attitudes":[104],"within":[105],"framework":[107],"Cumulative":[109],"Prospect":[110],"Theory.":[111],"Furthermore,":[112],"allows":[115],"various":[119],"levels":[120],"direct":[125],"comparison":[126],"absolute":[128],"confidence.":[131],"tested":[133],"method,":[135],"results":[138],"meet":[139],"expectations,":[141],"replicate":[142],"results,":[144],"show":[146],"population":[149,170],"can":[150],"simultaneously":[152],"overconfident,":[153],"well-calibrated,":[154],"underconfident.":[156],"In":[157],"specific":[159],"case,":[160],"we":[161],"find":[162],"more":[164],"than":[165,175,185,196],"ninety-five":[166],"percent":[167,180,191],"believe":[171,181,192],"better":[174,184,195],"twenty-five":[176],"percent;":[177,187],"fifty":[179,186],"only":[189],"seven":[190],"seventy-five":[197],"percent.":[198]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-03T10:50:19.383937","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
