{"id":"https://openalex.org/W150983157","doi":null,"title":"Confronting context effects in intelligence analysis: How can mathematics help?","display_name":"Confronting context effects in intelligence analysis: How can mathematics help?","publication_year":2005,"publication_date":"2005-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W150983157","mag":"150983157"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:150983157","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://profkeithdevlin.com/Papers/Context_in_Reasoning.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5086950937","display_name":"Keith Devlin","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I97018004","display_name":"Stanford University","ror":"https://ror.org/00f54p054","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Keith Devlin","raw_affiliation_strings":["Stanford University"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Stanford University","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5086950937"],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I97018004"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.1489,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":6,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.92465393,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":95},"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12572","display_name":"Intelligence, Security, War Strategy","score":0.9916999936103821,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12572","display_name":"Intelligence, Security, War Strategy","score":0.9916999936103821,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.0017999999690800905,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11010","display_name":"Logic, Reasoning, and Knowledge","score":0.001500000013038516,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intelligence-analysis","display_name":"intelligence analysis","score":0.9240000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/context-effects","display_name":"context effects","score":0.9810000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-making","display_name":"decision-making","score":0.9459999799728394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/trust-evaluation","display_name":"trust evaluation","score":0.8809999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/data-collection","display_name":"data collection","score":0.621999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/e-commerce","display_name":"e-commerce","score":0.7559999823570251},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/mathematical-formalism","display_name":"mathematical formalism","score":0.4790000021457672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/analysis-protocol","display_name":"analysis protocol","score":0.6489999890327454}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C517642484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388514","display_name":"Intelligence analysis","level":2,"score":0.819645881652832},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6111433506011963},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2522767166","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2374463","display_name":"Data science","level":1,"score":0.5097736716270447},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C124304363","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q673661","display_name":"Abstraction","level":2,"score":0.4854927361011505},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.4813876450061798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C40046163","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3268831","display_name":"Intelligence cycle","level":3,"score":0.4712028205394745},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105409693","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5937824","display_name":"Human intelligence","level":2,"score":0.467695951461792},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C52085439","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5165173","display_name":"Context analysis","level":3,"score":0.4623367488384247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.4442652463912964},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C56739046","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q192060","display_name":"Knowledge management","level":1,"score":0.38042399287223816},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.3795730769634247},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C188147891","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q147638","display_name":"Cognitive science","level":1,"score":0.33816850185394287},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49504249","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4168000","display_name":"Military intelligence","level":2,"score":0.32714536786079407},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2552923560142517},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C111472728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9471","display_name":"Epistemology","level":1,"score":0.21348091959953308},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.115714430809021},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778137410","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2732820","display_name":"Government (linguistics)","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151730666","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7205","display_name":"Paleontology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86803240","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q420","display_name":"Biology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C95457728","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q309","display_name":"History","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:150983157","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://profkeithdevlin.com/Papers/Context_in_Reasoning.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W62826739","https://openalex.org/W147009387","https://openalex.org/W645334349","https://openalex.org/W658975919","https://openalex.org/W1517639115","https://openalex.org/W1539330193","https://openalex.org/W1549711853","https://openalex.org/W1555476679","https://openalex.org/W1576210512","https://openalex.org/W1576632330","https://openalex.org/W1578602907","https://openalex.org/W1580325692","https://openalex.org/W1590274222","https://openalex.org/W1957139882","https://openalex.org/W1964169340","https://openalex.org/W2001722583","https://openalex.org/W2054129954","https://openalex.org/W2106333595","https://openalex.org/W2145814916","https://openalex.org/W2163851465","https://openalex.org/W2174287231","https://openalex.org/W2478248862","https://openalex.org/W2912445413","https://openalex.org/W3132758650","https://openalex.org/W4250862392"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2060882235","https://openalex.org/W2264263228","https://openalex.org/W2482035595","https://openalex.org/W4235845970","https://openalex.org/W7134925690","https://openalex.org/W2048913471","https://openalex.org/W2042108159","https://openalex.org/W1562820220","https://openalex.org/W2351587720","https://openalex.org/W309705052"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"We":[0],"use":[1],"the":[2,11,23,59,96,106,124,138,145,159,171,185,203,215,228],"interpretation":[3],"of":[4,8,22,25,54,61,83,90,95,108,115,151,161,202,244,249],"a":[5,20,42,51,241,253],"key":[6],"piece":[7],"information":[9],"in":[10,27,50,129,142,176,219],"2002":[12],"U.S.":[13],"decision":[14,28,102,209],"to":[15,18,40,69,121,189,197,226],"invade":[16],"Iraq":[17],"motivate":[19],"study":[21,38,153,236],"role":[24,125,139],"context":[26,98,205],"making.":[29],"Although":[30],"our":[31,37,152,177,235],"primary":[32],"focus":[33],"is":[34],"intelligence":[35,77,131,166,190,220,229],"analysis,":[36],"seeks":[39],"adopt":[41],"mathematical":[43,242],"approach.":[44],"This":[45],"should":[46],"make":[47,70],"it":[48,140],"applicable":[49],"wide":[52],"variety":[53],"application":[55],"domains.":[56],"In":[57,232],"particular,":[58],"level":[60],"abstraction":[62],"at":[63],"which":[64,84,116,256],"we":[65,117,174,182,257],"work":[66,194,254],"enables":[67],"us":[68,120],"useful":[71],"comparisons":[72],"between":[73],"data":[74],"gathering":[75],"for":[76,165,169],"analysis":[78,132,167,191,224,230],"and":[79,101,208],"Internet":[80],"commerce,":[81],"both":[82],"depend":[85],"on":[86,255],"making":[87],"crucial":[88],"estimates":[89],"trust.":[91],"The":[92],"initial":[93],"examination":[94],"way":[97,157,204],"influences":[99,206],"reasoning":[100,207],"making,":[103],"together":[104],"with":[105],"results":[107],"studies":[109],"carried":[110],"out":[111],"by":[112,127],"others":[113],"(some":[114],"mention),":[118],"leads":[119],"conclude":[122],"that":[123,184],"played":[126],"mathematics":[128],"improving":[130],"will":[133],"necessarily":[134],"be":[135,238],"different":[136],"from":[137,192],"plays":[141],"engineering":[143],"or":[144],"natural":[146],"sciences.":[147],"Whereas":[148],"some":[149],"aspects":[150],"may":[154,237],"find":[155],"their":[156],"into":[158,214],"design":[160],"computer":[162],"support":[163],"tools":[164],"\u2014":[168,181],"instance":[170],"logical":[172],"formalism":[173],"described":[175],"earlier":[178],"paper":[179],"[16]":[180],"believe":[183],"most":[186],"significant":[187],"benefits":[188],"this":[193,233],"are":[195],"likely":[196],"be:":[198],"\u2022":[199,211,222],"better":[200],"appreciation":[201],"making;":[210],"sharper":[212],"insight":[213],"human":[216],"problems":[217],"inherent":[218],"analysis;":[221],"improved":[223],"protocols":[225],"guide":[227],"community.":[231],"respect,":[234],"viewed":[239],"as":[240],"analog":[243],"Richards":[245],"J":[246],"Heuer\u2019s":[247],"Psychology":[248],"Intelligence":[250],"Analysis":[251],"[26],":[252],"draw.":[258]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2021,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
