{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1506925930","doi":null,"title":"Introduction to Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently","display_name":"Introduction to Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently","publication_year":2007,"publication_date":"2007-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1506925930","mag":"1506925930"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:pup:chapts:8474-1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.html","pdf_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5084833109","display_name":"Riccardo Rebonato","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1378-8346","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1378-8346"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Riccardo Rebonato","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1378-8346","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5084833109"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.08492366,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.61080002784729,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.61080002784729,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12276","display_name":"Risk Management in Financial Firms","score":0.3190999925136566,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1402","display_name":"Accounting"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14465","display_name":"Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies","score":0.03150000050663948,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-risk-management","display_name":"financial risk management","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-measurement","display_name":"risk measurement","score":0.550000011920929},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-making-under-uncertainty","display_name":"decision making under uncertainty","score":0.8100000023841858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-judgment","display_name":"probability judgment","score":0.6579999923706055},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/behavioral-finance","display_name":"behavioral finance","score":0.5490000247955322},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/experimental-psychology","display_name":"experimental psychology","score":0.871999979019165},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-theory","display_name":"decision theory","score":0.9850000143051147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/quantitative-risk-models","display_name":"quantitative risk models","score":0.5609999895095825},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-markets","display_name":"financial markets","score":0.4189999997615814}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C32896092","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189447","display_name":"Risk management","level":2,"score":0.5084611177444458},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177291462","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q423038","display_name":"Active listening","level":2,"score":0.5006728172302246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C19244329","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208697","display_name":"Financial market","level":2,"score":0.49372777342796326},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C76073288","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1337875","display_name":"Financial risk","level":2,"score":0.44548124074935913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C43071985","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2906013","display_name":"Financial risk management","level":3,"score":0.4128151535987854},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.4103177785873413},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.3892839550971985},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.38339507579803467},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.37919923663139343},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.19067057967185974},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C46312422","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11024","display_name":"Communication","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:pup:chapts:8474-1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.html","pdf_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:1506925930","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:pup:chapts:8474-1","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3124589771","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ideas.repec.org/h/pup/chapts/8474-1.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764396132","display_name":"Introductory Chapters","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Introductory Chapters","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:pup:chapts:8474-1","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.html","pdf_url":"http://assets.press.princeton.edu/chapters/s8474.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1506925930.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1506925930.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":0,"referenced_works":[],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2559207309","https://openalex.org/W2504972134","https://openalex.org/W1544860329","https://openalex.org/W4246571273","https://openalex.org/W2124308055","https://openalex.org/W7111316129","https://openalex.org/W53004208","https://openalex.org/W7051634005","https://openalex.org/W6995866273","https://openalex.org/W2770206769"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Today's":[0],"top":[1],"financial-risk":[2,133],"professionals":[3],"have":[4,137,219],"come":[5,16],"to":[6,15,17,81,90,105,120,125,172,180],"rely":[7],"on":[8,26],"ever-more":[9],"sophisticated":[10],"mathematics":[11],"in":[12,45,110,132],"their":[13],"attempts":[14],"grips":[18],"with":[19,114,140],"financial":[20,83,108,154,213],"risk.":[21,36],"But":[22],"this":[23,65,159],"excessive":[24],"reliance":[25],"quantitative":[27,147],"precision":[28],"is":[29,38,56,67,101,192],"misleading--and":[30],"it":[31,92],"puts":[32],"us":[33,88,124,174],"all":[34],"at":[35],"This":[37,100],"the":[39,48,102,127,189,198],"case":[40],"that":[41,74,145,170,175],"Riccardo":[42],"Rebonato":[43,71,122,161],"makes":[44],"Plight":[46,187],"of":[47,188,201],"Fortune":[49,190],"Tellers":[50,191],"--and":[51],"coming":[52],"from":[53],"someone":[54],"who":[55],"both":[57],"an":[58,63],"experienced":[59],"market":[60],"professional":[61],"and":[62,85,97,143],"academic,":[64],"heresy":[66],"worth":[68],"listening":[69],"to.":[70],"forcefully":[72],"argues":[73],"we":[75],"must":[76],"restore":[77],"genuine":[78],"decision":[79,98,199],"making":[80,183],"our":[82],"planning,":[84],"he":[86],"shows":[87],"how":[89,115,211],"do":[91],"using":[93],"probability,":[94],"experimental":[95],"psychology,":[96],"theory.":[99],"only":[103,194],"way":[104],"effectively":[106],"manage":[107],"risk":[109,142,177,224],"a":[111,163,195,205],"manner":[112],"congruent":[113],"human":[116],"beings":[117],"actually":[118],"react":[119],"chance.":[121],"challenges":[123],"rethink":[126],"standard":[128],"wisdom":[129],"about":[130,210],"probability":[131],"management.":[134],"Risk":[135],"managers":[136],"become":[138],"obsessed":[139],"measuring":[141],"believe":[144],"these":[146],"results":[148],"by":[149],"themselves":[150],"can":[151],"guide":[152],"sound":[153],"choices--but":[155],"they":[156],"can't.":[157],"In":[158],"book,":[160],"offers":[162],"radical":[164],"yet":[165],"surprisingly":[166],"commonsense":[167],"solution,":[168],"one":[169],"seeks":[171],"remind":[173],"managing":[176],"comes":[178],"down":[179],"real":[181],"people":[182],"decisions":[184],"under":[185],"uncertainty.":[186],"not":[193],"book":[196],"for":[197,207],"makers":[200],"Wall":[202],"Street,":[203],"it's":[204],"must-read":[206],"anyone":[208],"concerned":[209],"today's":[212],"markets":[214],"are":[215],"run.":[216],"The":[217],"stakes":[218],"never":[220],"been":[221],"higher--can":[222],"you":[223],"it?":[225]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-08-21T09:56:20.448147","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}