{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1501599480","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","title":"The development of strategy scenarios based on prospective hindsight","display_name":"The development of strategy scenarios based on prospective hindsight","publication_year":2015,"publication_date":"2015-05-13","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1501599480","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","mag":"1501599480"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S14764538","display_name":"Journal of strategy and management","issn_l":"1755-425X","issn":["1755-425X","1755-4268"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-4","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319811","host_organization_name":"Emerald Publishing Limited","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319811"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Emerald Publishing Limited"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Strategy and Management","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5081501595","display_name":"Philip Mei\u00dfner","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1016-6533","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1016-6533"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161103922","display_name":"Philipps University of Marburg","ror":"https://ror.org/01rdrb571","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161103922"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Philip Meissner","raw_affiliation_strings":["Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161103922"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5006385178","display_name":"Torsten Wulf","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5552-3413","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5552-3413"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161103922","display_name":"Philipps University of Marburg","ror":"https://ror.org/01rdrb571","country_code":"DE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161103922"]}],"countries":["DE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Torsten Wulf","raw_affiliation_strings":["Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"Philipps-University Marburg, Marburg, Germany","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161103922"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161103922"],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":3.7259,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":28,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.93921734,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"8","issue":"2","first_page":"176","last_page":"190"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13137","display_name":"Strategic Planning and Analysis","score":0.9711999893188477,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13137","display_name":"Strategic Planning and Analysis","score":0.9711999893188477,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13151","display_name":"Business Strategies and Innovation","score":0.007699999958276749,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1408","display_name":"Strategy and Management"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/14","display_name":"Business, Management and Accounting"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14465","display_name":"Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies","score":0.005400000140070915,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scenario-planning","display_name":"scenario planning","score":0.6840000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/strategy-formulation","display_name":"strategy formulation","score":0.7120000123977661},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/strategic-decision-making","display_name":"strategic decision-making","score":0.8450000286102295},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/scenario-method","display_name":"scenario approach","score":0.5799999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intuitive-logic","display_name":"intuitive logic","score":0.6729999780654907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/business-strategy","display_name":"business strategy","score":0.6779999732971191}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C202033279","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931373","display_name":"Scenario planning","level":2,"score":0.8253232836723328},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.6398947238922119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778012447","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1034415","display_name":"Scope (computer science)","level":2,"score":0.6141409277915955},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10347200","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1960297","display_name":"Hindsight bias","level":2,"score":0.5746595859527588},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C18785705","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1931373","display_name":"Scenario analysis","level":2,"score":0.5304051637649536},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C48243021","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932522","display_name":"Strategic planning","level":2,"score":0.5171343684196472},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C539667460","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2414942","display_name":"Management science","level":1,"score":0.4847645163536072},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C195094911","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q14167904","display_name":"Process management","level":1,"score":0.4587003290653229},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C86275758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q376657","display_name":"Strategic management","level":2,"score":0.42262402176856995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C112930515","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4389547","display_name":"Risk analysis (engineering)","level":1,"score":0.4025900363922119},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.17868787050247192},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.11231222748756409},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162853370","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q39809","display_name":"Marketing","level":1,"score":0.08580571413040161},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C10138342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q43015","display_name":"Finance","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1108/jsma-01-2015-0004","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S14764538","display_name":"Journal of strategy and management","issn_l":"1755-425X","issn":["1755-425X","1755-4268"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-b","anvur-class-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core","fnege-4","jufo-1","norway-1","poland-20","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310319811","host_organization_name":"Emerald Publishing Limited","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310319811"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Emerald Publishing Limited"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Journal of Strategy and Management","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":47,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W4420029","https://openalex.org/W201578715","https://openalex.org/W284513564","https://openalex.org/W624883646","https://openalex.org/W942274081","https://openalex.org/W1480526195","https://openalex.org/W1483763241","https://openalex.org/W1503127990","https://openalex.org/W1516922439","https://openalex.org/W1583534579","https://openalex.org/W1971091947","https://openalex.org/W1971905447","https://openalex.org/W1978498568","https://openalex.org/W1990921190","https://openalex.org/W1997638269","https://openalex.org/W2004483003","https://openalex.org/W2013924799","https://openalex.org/W2016271066","https://openalex.org/W2026136470","https://openalex.org/W2028705955","https://openalex.org/W2029452405","https://openalex.org/W2033652250","https://openalex.org/W2038903721","https://openalex.org/W2040090261","https://openalex.org/W2040729499","https://openalex.org/W2041014183","https://openalex.org/W2062181660","https://openalex.org/W2064404790","https://openalex.org/W2067216967","https://openalex.org/W2067404458","https://openalex.org/W2091709581","https://openalex.org/W2103791572","https://openalex.org/W2108719363","https://openalex.org/W2111023775","https://openalex.org/W2118166465","https://openalex.org/W2123830299","https://openalex.org/W2136183207","https://openalex.org/W2140256961","https://openalex.org/W2140543255","https://openalex.org/W2144017141","https://openalex.org/W2145564081","https://openalex.org/W2149060914","https://openalex.org/W2328418989","https://openalex.org/W2506166079","https://openalex.org/W2909022281","https://openalex.org/W4211207421","https://openalex.org/W4301958211"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4243886921","https://openalex.org/W2016271066","https://openalex.org/W2023499970","https://openalex.org/W2766058720","https://openalex.org/W2508148938","https://openalex.org/W7160659955","https://openalex.org/W2025997927","https://openalex.org/W2605075213","https://openalex.org/W1986224657","https://openalex.org/W2014238909"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Purpose":[0],"\u2013":[1,112,150,179],"Research":[2],"focussed":[3],"on":[4,83],"the":[5,11,27,33,39,43,49,55,59,69,95,101,117,124,156,165,172,192],"scenario":[6,19,60,96,159,182],"method":[7,30,51,61,97],"has":[8],"increasingly":[9],"criticized":[10],"widely":[12],"used":[13],"intuitive":[14],"logics":[15],"(IL)":[16],"approach":[17,183,187],"to":[18,37,54,81,106,140,164,188],"development":[20,57,108],"and":[21,48,66,86,133,144],"introduced":[22],"enhanced":[23,186],"approaches,":[24],"such":[25],"as":[26,90,136],"backwards":[28],"logic":[29],"(BLM)":[31],"or":[32],"antifragile":[34],"(AF)":[35],"method,":[36],"overcome":[38],"restrictions":[40],"associated":[41],"with":[42],"IL":[44],"approach.":[45],"The":[46,75,113,151,180],"BLM":[47],"AF":[50],"have":[52],"contributed":[53],"further":[56,92,170],"of":[58,77,94,103,126,158,194],"by":[62,67],"integrating":[63],"backward":[64],"reasoning":[65,196],"increasing":[68],"method\u2019s":[70,173],"effectiveness":[71,174],"for":[72,129,175,197],"decision":[73,131,176,199],"making.":[74,177,200],"purpose":[76],"this":[78],"paper":[79,152],"is":[80],"build":[82],"these":[84],"ideas":[85],"introduce":[87],"strategy":[88,107,134,181],"scenarios":[89,143],"a":[91],"enhancement":[93],"that":[98,116,154],"directly":[99],"applies":[100],"benefits":[102,125,193],"scenario-based":[104,127,195],"planning":[105,128,160],"in":[109],"corporations.":[110],"Design/methodology/approach":[111],"authors":[114],"argue":[115],"existing":[118,147],"methodologies":[119],"do":[120],"not":[121],"fully":[122],"integrate":[123],"strategic":[130,198],"making":[132],"development,":[135],"they":[137],"mostly":[138],"aim":[139],"develop":[141],"macroenvironmental":[142],"test":[145],"organizations\u2019":[146],"strategies.":[148],"Findings":[149],"suggests":[153],"changing":[155],"scope":[157],"from":[161],"environmental":[162],"developments":[163],"organization\u2019s":[166],"strategies":[167],"themselves":[168],"can":[169],"strengthen":[171],"Originality/value":[178],"provides":[184],"an":[185],"more":[189],"comprehensively":[190],"utilize":[191]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2022,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2020,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":14},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-30T12:39:25.321706","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
