{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1500848018","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","title":"The Stock Market Crash of 1929: Irving Fisher Was Right!","display_name":"The Stock Market Crash of 1929: Irving Fisher Was Right!","publication_year":2001,"publication_date":"2001-12-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1500848018","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","mag":"1500848018"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w8622","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"volume":null,"type":"report","is_traditional":false,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5026074975","display_name":"Ellen R. McGrattan","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130238516","display_name":"University of Minnesota","ror":"https://ror.org/017zqws13","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130238516"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1321305853","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04grmx538","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1341575764","display_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis","ror":"https://ror.org/0380n5h16","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I1341575764"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Ellen McGrattan","raw_affiliation_strings":["NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","Research Department Department of Economics Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis University of Minnesota 90 Hennepin Avenue 271 19th Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55480 Minneapolis, MN 55455"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Research Department Department of Economics Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis University of Minnesota 90 Hennepin Avenue 271 19th Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55480 Minneapolis, MN 55455","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130238516","https://openalex.org/I1341575764"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5004275293","display_name":"Edward Simpson Prescott","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6433-1680","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6433-1680"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I130238516","display_name":"University of Minnesota","ror":"https://ror.org/017zqws13","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I130238516"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1321305853","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","ror":"https://ror.org/04grmx538","country_code":"US","type":"nonprofit","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"id":"https://openalex.org/I1341575764","display_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis","ror":"https://ror.org/0380n5h16","country_code":"US","type":"other","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1317239608","https://openalex.org/I1341575764"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Edward Prescott","raw_affiliation_strings":["NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","Research Department Department of Economics Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis University of Minnesota 90 Hennepin Avenue 271 19th Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55480 Minneapolis, MN 55455"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I1321305853"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"Research Department Department of Economics Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis University of Minnesota 90 Hennepin Avenue 271 19th Avenue South Minneapolis, MN 55480 Minneapolis, MN 55455","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I130238516","https://openalex.org/I1341575764"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":3,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":18,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.8755000233650208,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10047","display_name":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","score":0.8755000233650208,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2003","display_name":"Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12137","display_name":"Economic theories and models","score":0.04659999907016754,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10007","display_name":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","score":0.020099999383091927,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2000","display_name":"General Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-market-crash-of-1929","display_name":"1929 stock market crash","score":0.968999981880188},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/irving-fisher","display_name":"Irving Fisher","score":0.9679999947547913},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/stock-valuation","display_name":"stock valuation","score":0.6830000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/corporate-equity","display_name":"corporate equity","score":0.6060000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/productive-capital","display_name":"productive capital","score":0.6190000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/tax-rates","display_name":"tax rates","score":0.7950000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overvaluation","display_name":"overvaluation","score":0.4740000069141388},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/undervaluation","display_name":"undervaluation","score":0.7319999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/new-york-stock-exchange","display_name":"New York Stock Exchange","score":0.8539999723434448}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C183469790","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333501","display_name":"Crash","level":2,"score":0.6642934083938599},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780299701","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q475000","display_name":"Stock market","level":3,"score":0.5199785828590393},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2777209242","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1020018","display_name":"Stock market crash","level":4,"score":0.5024340152740479},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C106159729","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2294553","display_name":"Financial economics","level":1,"score":0.46221891045570374},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204036174","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q909380","display_name":"Stock (firearms)","level":2,"score":0.4367351233959198},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4316665530204773},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.42209839820861816},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.2370550036430359},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.20548218488693237},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C166957645","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23498","display_name":"Archaeology","level":1,"score":0.12055602669715881},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.064271479845047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779343474","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3109175","display_name":"Context (archaeology)","level":2,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.3386/w8622","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8622","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://www.nber.org/papers/w8622.pdf","pdf_url":"http://www.nber.org/papers/w8622.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:3122173346","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/nbrnberwo/8622.htm","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3139657858","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/8622.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"doi:10.3386/w8622","doi":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","pdf_url":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w8622","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2809516038","display_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4322614461"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["National Bureau of Economic Research"],"type":"repository"},"license":"public-domain","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/public-domain","version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"National Bureau of Economic Research","raw_type":"report"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320306076","display_name":"National Science Foundation","ror":"https://ror.org/021nxhr62"}],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1500848018.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1500848018.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":25,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W172856932","https://openalex.org/W595787095","https://openalex.org/W1515758695","https://openalex.org/W1965724545","https://openalex.org/W1980585207","https://openalex.org/W2010661637","https://openalex.org/W2015831780","https://openalex.org/W2042712452","https://openalex.org/W2049884538","https://openalex.org/W2060545155","https://openalex.org/W2081310645","https://openalex.org/W2097647271","https://openalex.org/W2128967674","https://openalex.org/W2137652298","https://openalex.org/W2141228579","https://openalex.org/W2155382720","https://openalex.org/W2169238232","https://openalex.org/W2179834437","https://openalex.org/W2329218000","https://openalex.org/W2889607641","https://openalex.org/W2890266134","https://openalex.org/W3022046826","https://openalex.org/W3121803164","https://openalex.org/W3125409095","https://openalex.org/W3142226878"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7098410998","https://openalex.org/W1978262778","https://openalex.org/W7097501740","https://openalex.org/W4401518987","https://openalex.org/W6987311940","https://openalex.org/W2097647271","https://openalex.org/W2139001217","https://openalex.org/W7099584852","https://openalex.org/W2090471073","https://openalex.org/W4401517638"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"In":[0],"the":[1,5,13,27,35,47,52,61,95,104,109],"fall":[2],"of":[3,8,41,64,73],"1929,":[4],"market":[6,37,54,97,105],"value":[7,63],"all":[9],"shares":[10],"listed":[11],"on":[12,71],"New":[14],"York":[15],"Stock":[16],"Exchange":[17],"fell":[18],"by":[19],"30":[20],"percent.Many":[21],"analysts":[22],"then":[23,32],"and":[24,34,51,76,82,86],"now":[25],"take":[26],"view":[28],"that":[29,46,94,113],"stocks":[30,72,114],"were":[31,49,115],"overvalued":[33],"stock":[36,53,91,96],"was":[38,55,106],"in":[39,67,80,98],"need":[40],"a":[42],"correction.Irving":[43],"Fisher":[44],"argued":[45],"fundamentals":[48],"strong":[50],"undervalued.In":[56],"this":[57],"paper,":[58],"we":[59],"estimate":[60],"fundamental":[62],"corporate":[65],"equity":[66],"1929":[68,99,120],"using":[69],"data":[70],"productive":[74],"capital":[75],"tax":[77],"rates":[78],"as":[79],"McGrattan":[81],"Prescott":[83],"(2000,":[84],"2001)":[85],"compare":[87],"it":[88],"to":[89],"actual":[90],"valuations.We":[92],"find":[93],"did":[100],"not":[101],"crash":[102],"because":[103],"overvalued.In":[107],"fact,":[108],"evidence":[110],"strongly":[111],"suggests":[112],"undervalued,":[116],"even":[117],"at":[118],"their":[119],"peak.":[121]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2026,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":3}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
