{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1499640213","doi":null,"title":"An Elementary Approach to Thinking under Uncertainty: A Prototype Text","display_name":"An Elementary Approach to Thinking under Uncertainty: A Prototype Text","publication_year":1982,"publication_date":"1982-10-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1499640213","mag":"1499640213"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"mag:1499640213","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a134009.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5103068968","display_name":"Tal Marom","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5405-1570","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5405-1570"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Tal Marom","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5405-1570","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5110821134","display_name":"Sarah Lichtenstein","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Sarah Lichtenstein","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":0.0,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.0,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9463000297546387,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9463000297546387,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12574","display_name":"Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills","score":0.025800000876188278,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2714","display_name":"Family Practice"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14465","display_name":"Leadership, Behavior, and Decision-Making Studies","score":0.015300000086426735,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-making-under-uncertainty","display_name":"decision making under uncertainty","score":0.9390000104904175},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/reasoning-under-uncertainty","display_name":"uncertainty reasoning","score":0.699999988079071},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cognitive-bias","display_name":"cognitive biases","score":0.8619999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-estimation","display_name":"probability estimation","score":0.7620000243186951},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/numerical-estimation","display_name":"numerical estimation","score":0.5979999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/human-information-processing","display_name":"human information processing","score":0.6349999904632568},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-making-training","display_name":"decision-making training","score":0.6209999918937683}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780615836","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2471869","display_name":"USable","level":2,"score":0.6804037094116211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.63629150390625},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C177264268","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1514741","display_name":"Set (abstract data type)","level":2,"score":0.6326612234115601},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.5884143710136414},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C517642484","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2388514","display_name":"Intelligence analysis","level":2,"score":0.5225450396537781},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C87868495","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q750843","display_name":"Information processing","level":2,"score":0.4641875624656677},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C91304198","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9288","display_name":"Hebrew","level":2,"score":0.4274728298187256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.40153631567955017},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.2003389596939087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41895202","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8162","display_name":"Linguistics","level":1,"score":0.16044938564300537},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49774154","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q131765","display_name":"Multimedia","level":1,"score":0.13492479920387268},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.11441591382026672},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138885662","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5891","display_name":"Philosophy","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C38652104","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3510521","display_name":"Computer security","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199360897","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9143","display_name":"Programming language","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"mag:1499640213","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a134009.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":40,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W158727920","https://openalex.org/W193694093","https://openalex.org/W197602000","https://openalex.org/W603272440","https://openalex.org/W1491257626","https://openalex.org/W1964149869","https://openalex.org/W1965761421","https://openalex.org/W1967485420","https://openalex.org/W1967877743","https://openalex.org/W1976624377","https://openalex.org/W1980054641","https://openalex.org/W1995388224","https://openalex.org/W1998274472","https://openalex.org/W2003640801","https://openalex.org/W2005852998","https://openalex.org/W2008091292","https://openalex.org/W2016377072","https://openalex.org/W2035782089","https://openalex.org/W2045429450","https://openalex.org/W2047495566","https://openalex.org/W2052691832","https://openalex.org/W2057598446","https://openalex.org/W2081174908","https://openalex.org/W2084585578","https://openalex.org/W2088455876","https://openalex.org/W2099734055","https://openalex.org/W2103379473","https://openalex.org/W2113383833","https://openalex.org/W2136573099","https://openalex.org/W2140566340","https://openalex.org/W2142405927","https://openalex.org/W2156112534","https://openalex.org/W2178782964","https://openalex.org/W2225305894","https://openalex.org/W2317997851","https://openalex.org/W2334358983","https://openalex.org/W2556781009","https://openalex.org/W2623674207","https://openalex.org/W2990384283","https://openalex.org/W3197931850"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W54538165","https://openalex.org/W3136316186","https://openalex.org/W2800098159","https://openalex.org/W278362777","https://openalex.org/W2736813951","https://openalex.org/W2353311695","https://openalex.org/W3176958318","https://openalex.org/W3086786068","https://openalex.org/W2576537140","https://openalex.org/W4301077530"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Abstract":[0],":":[1],"This":[2],"technical":[3,151],"report":[4],"is":[5,22,38,57],"a":[6,41,44,99,106,113,148],"prototype":[7],"elementary":[8],"textbook":[9],"for":[10,33,49,84,159,184],"teaching":[11],"reasoning":[12],"processes":[13,65],"and":[14,28,47,66,79,125,153,173,181,191],"decision":[15,192],"making":[16],"under":[17],"conditions":[18],"of":[19,43,62,101,120,122,130,143,150,156,167,187],"uncertainty.":[20],"It":[21],"written":[23],"at":[24,140,164],"an":[25,123,131,154],"introductory":[26],"level":[27],"designed":[29],"to":[30,76],"be":[31],"usable":[32],"nontechnical":[34],"personnel.":[35],"The":[36,54],"text":[37,179],"based":[39,58],"on":[40,59,68],"translation":[42],"Hebrew":[45],"book":[46],"adapted":[48,183],"the":[50,60,90,95,110,118,128,141,165,168,185],"American":[51],"student":[52],"audience.":[53],"original":[55],"material":[56],"study":[61,161],"intuitive":[63],"thought":[64],"capitalizes":[67],"information":[69,88,189],"about":[70],"cognitive":[71],"biases":[72],"that":[73],"typically":[74],"lead":[75],"faulty":[77],"decisions":[78],"judgments.":[80],"Methods":[81],"are":[82,138,162],"outlined":[83],"processing":[85,190],"partial":[86],"unreliable":[87],"in":[89,112,133],"following":[91],"categories:":[92],"when":[93,104,116,126],"choosing":[94],"most":[96,144],"likely":[97],"among":[98],"set":[100],"possible":[102],"solutions;":[103],"estimating":[105,127],"numerical":[107],"value":[108],"as":[109],"solution":[111],"quantitative":[114],"problem;":[115],"assessing":[117],"probability":[119],"occurrence":[121],"event;":[124],"chances":[129],"event":[132],"exceptional":[134],"problems.":[135],"Practice":[136],"problems":[137],"provided":[139],"end":[142],"chapters.":[145],"In":[146],"addition,":[147],"list":[149],"references":[152],"outline":[155],"related":[157],"topics":[158],"further":[160],"presented":[163],"conclusion":[166],"text.":[169],"Military":[170],"command,":[171],"control,":[172],"intelligence":[174],"personnel":[175],"should":[176],"find":[177],"this":[178],"applicable":[180],"easily":[182],"training":[186],"human":[188],"making.":[193]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-09-26T08:19:03.415552","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}