{"id":"https://openalex.org/W149731348","doi":null,"title":"Extending extended logistic regression to effectively utilize the ensemble spread","display_name":"Extending extended logistic regression to effectively utilize the ensemble spread","publication_year":2013,"publication_date":"2013-08-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W149731348","mag":"149731348"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-21","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/101099","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5056123027","display_name":"Jakob Wolfgang Messner","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1027-3673","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1027-3673"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I190249584","display_name":"Universit\u00e4t Innsbruck","ror":"https://ror.org/054pv6659","country_code":"AT","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I190249584"]}],"countries":["AT"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jakob W. Messner","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of Innsbruck;"],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1027-3673","affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of Innsbruck;","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I190249584"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5011526676","display_name":"Georg Johann Mayr","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6661-9453","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6661-9453"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Georg J. Mayr","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6661-9453","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5014873408","display_name":"Achim Zeileis","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0918-3766","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0918-3766"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Achim Zeileis","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0918-3766","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5012692023","display_name":"Daniel S. Wilks","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6442-5647","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6442-5647"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Daniel S. Wilks","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6442-5647","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":22,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.8974999785423279,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10466","display_name":"Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations","score":0.8974999785423279,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1902","display_name":"Atmospheric Science"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/19","display_name":"Earth and Planetary Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.06390000134706497,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11052","display_name":"Energy Load and Power Forecasting","score":0.01860000006854534,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2208","display_name":"Electrical and Electronic Engineering"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/22","display_name":"Engineering"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-spread","display_name":"ensemble spread","score":0.9549999833106995},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ensemble-calibration","display_name":"ensemble calibration","score":0.6489999890327454},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probabilistic-forecasting","display_name":"probabilistic forecasting","score":0.9039999842643738},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-post-processing","display_name":"forecast post-processing","score":0.6880000233650208},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/predictive-distribution","display_name":"predictive distribution","score":0.781000018119812},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/dispersion-prediction","display_name":"dispersion prediction","score":0.6039999723434448},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/wind-speed-forecasting","display_name":"wind speed forecasting","score":0.7950000166893005},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ecmwf-ensemble-forecasts","display_name":"ECMWF ensemble forecasts","score":0.8240000009536743},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/forecast-uncertainty","display_name":"forecast uncertainty","score":0.6069999933242798}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151956035","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1132755","display_name":"Logistic regression","level":2,"score":0.7031860947608948},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C119898033","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3433888","display_name":"Ensemble forecasting","level":2,"score":0.6788924932479858},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C45942800","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q245652","display_name":"Ensemble learning","level":2,"score":0.6392481923103333},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.5581334233283997},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49937458","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2599292","display_name":"Probabilistic logic","level":2,"score":0.5328194499015808},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5171215534210205},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C122282355","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7246855","display_name":"Probabilistic forecasting","level":3,"score":0.5097079277038574},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C196083921","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7915758","display_name":"Variance (accounting)","level":2,"score":0.4764450192451477},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C83546350","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1139051","display_name":"Regression","level":2,"score":0.4521796703338623},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.42888617515563965},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C165838908","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q736777","display_name":"Calibration","level":2,"score":0.42397454380989075},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.41311201453208923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C152877465","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q208042","display_name":"Regression analysis","level":2,"score":0.41213637590408325},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2956432104110718},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C154945302","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11660","display_name":"Artificial intelligence","level":1,"score":0.18246835470199585},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121955636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4116214","display_name":"Accounting","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144133560","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q4830453","display_name":"Business","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159985019","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q181790","display_name":"Composite material","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C192562407","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q228736","display_name":"Materials science","level":0,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-21","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","pdf_url":"https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"pmh:oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-027585682","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","pdf_url":"http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/101099","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/101099","pdf_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/101099","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},{"id":"mag:149731348","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2013-21.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:econstor.eu:10419/101099","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/101099","pdf_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10419/101099","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401696","display_name":"Econstor (Econstor)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"doc-type:workingPaper"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/G598257327","display_name":"Forecasting the wind power distribution for wind parks","funder_award_id":"L615","funder_id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321181","funder_display_name":"Austrian Science Fund"}],"funders":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320321181","display_name":"Austrian Science Fund","ror":"https://ror.org/013tf3c58"},{"id":"https://openalex.org/F4320327491","display_name":"Universit\u00e4t Innsbruck","ror":"https://ror.org/054pv6659"}],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W149731348.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W149731348.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":46,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W112351853","https://openalex.org/W150368113","https://openalex.org/W1489430322","https://openalex.org/W1501278317","https://openalex.org/W1506487752","https://openalex.org/W1555925061","https://openalex.org/W1567984489","https://openalex.org/W1587348082","https://openalex.org/W1641777415","https://openalex.org/W1851508902","https://openalex.org/W1856718012","https://openalex.org/W1865687278","https://openalex.org/W1902339800","https://openalex.org/W1933282933","https://openalex.org/W1938905164","https://openalex.org/W1956394956","https://openalex.org/W1976255336","https://openalex.org/W1985058293","https://openalex.org/W1986797382","https://openalex.org/W2026058014","https://openalex.org/W2028883947","https://openalex.org/W2033279096","https://openalex.org/W2063838379","https://openalex.org/W2078556152","https://openalex.org/W2079296940","https://openalex.org/W2095845042","https://openalex.org/W2107538702","https://openalex.org/W2117629314","https://openalex.org/W2120405353","https://openalex.org/W2143339960","https://openalex.org/W2144668858","https://openalex.org/W2145193581","https://openalex.org/W2153529786","https://openalex.org/W2155585397","https://openalex.org/W2158840489","https://openalex.org/W2166120424","https://openalex.org/W2169377125","https://openalex.org/W2170593763","https://openalex.org/W2243344180","https://openalex.org/W2298542161","https://openalex.org/W2798510847","https://openalex.org/W2801490189","https://openalex.org/W2916304084","https://openalex.org/W3121908964","https://openalex.org/W3122613390","https://openalex.org/W3125455227"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2155384127","https://openalex.org/W88349154","https://openalex.org/W2142211552","https://openalex.org/W2028883947","https://openalex.org/W1985058293","https://openalex.org/W1914716428","https://openalex.org/W1636430209","https://openalex.org/W1613776528","https://openalex.org/W1998614430","https://openalex.org/W1654220543"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"To":[0,112],"achieve":[1],"well":[2],"calibrated":[3],"probabilistic":[4],"forecasts,":[5,44],"ensemble":[6,43,48,57,86,105,124,142,160],"forecasts":[7,143,168],"often":[8],"need":[9],"to":[10,28,41,129,166],"be":[11,163],"statistically":[12],"post-processed.":[13],"One":[14],"recent":[15],"ensemble-calibration":[16],"method":[17,39],"is":[18,40,50,59,107,126],"extended":[19,82,170],"logistic":[20,26,83,171],"regression":[21,27],"which":[22],"extends":[23],"the":[24,35,47,56,66,85,90,94,97,104,123,131,134,145,159],"popular":[25],"yield":[29],"full":[30],"probability":[31],"distribution":[32],"forecasts.":[33,67],"Although":[34],"purpose":[36],"of":[37,96,133],"this":[38,69,114,157],"post-process":[42],"mostly":[45],"only":[46,88],"mean":[49],"used":[51,76,128,164],"as":[52,77],"predictor":[53,79],"variable,":[54],"whereas":[55],"spread":[58,87,106,125,161],"neglected":[60],"because":[61],"it":[62],"does":[63],"not":[64,93,109],"improve":[65,167],"In":[68],"study":[70],"we":[71,116,153],"show":[72,154],"that":[73,155],"when":[74],"simply":[75],"ordinary":[78],"variable":[80],"in":[81,103],"regression,":[84],"affects":[89],"location":[91],"but":[92],"variance":[95],"predictive":[98,135],"distribution.":[99,136],"Uncertainty":[100],"information":[101],"contained":[102],"therefore":[108],"utilized":[110],"appropriately.":[111],"solve":[113],"drawback":[115],"propose":[117],"a":[118],"simple":[119],"new":[120],"approach":[121],"where":[122],"directly":[127],"predict":[130],"dispersion":[132],"With":[137],"wind":[138],"speed":[139],"data":[140],"and":[141],"from":[144,169],"European":[146],"Centre":[147],"for":[148],"Medium-Range":[149],"Weather":[150],"Forecasts":[151],"(ECMWF)":[152],"using":[156],"approach,":[158],"can":[162],"effectively":[165],"regression.":[172]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":3},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":4},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":11},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2}],"updated_date":"2026-11-12T12:28:57.059296","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
