{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1486655306","doi":null,"title":"Two measures of incoherence: How not to Gamble if you must","display_name":"Two measures of incoherence: How not to Gamble if you must","publication_year":1998,"publication_date":"1998-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1486655306","mag":"1486655306"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:160","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/160/1/tr660.ps","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5021537000","display_name":"Mark J. Schervish","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8550-9268","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8550-9268"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Mark J. Schervish","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8550-9268","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5054184417","display_name":"Teddy Seidenfeld","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4828-2388","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4828-2388"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Teddy Seidenfeld","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4828-2388","affiliations":[]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5017971040","display_name":"Joseph Born Kadane","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1548-5912","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1548-5912"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Joseph B. Kadane","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1548-5912","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":17,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.6190999746322632,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.6190999746322632,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.13099999725818634,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11674","display_name":"Sports Analytics and Performance","score":0.08510000258684158,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2002","display_name":"Economics and Econometrics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/20","display_name":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/incoherence","display_name":"incoherence","score":0.8920000195503235},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bookmaking","display_name":"bookmaking","score":0.4090000092983246},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/betting","display_name":"betting","score":0.3610000014305115},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-measures","display_name":"probability measures","score":0.5320000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arbitrage","display_name":"arbitrage","score":0.6269999742507935},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/financial-markets","display_name":"financial markets","score":0.6830000281333923},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/hypothesis-testing","display_name":"hypothesis testing","score":0.8650000095367432},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/statistical-procedures","display_name":"statistical procedures","score":0.7099999785423279}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.5218091011047363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780009758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q6804172","display_name":"Measure (data warehouse)","level":2,"score":0.5169431567192078},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2775997480","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q586277","display_name":"Degree (music)","level":2,"score":0.48932215571403503},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.486218124628067},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.4601678252220154},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27548731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88272","display_name":"Investment (military)","level":3,"score":0.4534648656845093},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.43326032161712646},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.410852313041687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3471149206161499},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C41008148","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q21198","display_name":"Computer science","level":0,"score":0.25289684534072876},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.08492648601531982},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C24890656","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q82811","display_name":"Acoustics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77088390","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8513","display_name":"Database","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:philsci-archive.pitt.edu:160","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/160/1/tr660.ps","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401282","display_name":"PhilSci-Archive (University of Pittsburgh)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I170201317","host_organization_name":"University of Pittsburgh","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I170201317"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Preprint"},{"id":"mag:1486655306","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/160/","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":false,"pdf":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":4,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W92815160","https://openalex.org/W1965061045","https://openalex.org/W2109870646","https://openalex.org/W3023006322"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4388319956","https://openalex.org/W6922095358","https://openalex.org/W7100026332","https://openalex.org/W7096171448","https://openalex.org/W2109870646","https://openalex.org/W7099404244","https://openalex.org/W7099530049","https://openalex.org/W1552152525","https://openalex.org/W281757809","https://openalex.org/W7066392866"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0],"degree":[1,100],"of":[2,19,43,45,73,85,92,101,103,114],"incoherence,":[3],"when":[4],"previsions":[5,75],"are":[6],"not":[7],"made":[8,29],"in":[9,95],"accordance":[10],"with":[11,111],"a":[12,30,50,118],"probability":[13],"measure,":[14],"is":[15,35,76],"measured":[16],"by":[17,78],"either":[18],"two":[20],"rates":[21],"at":[22,117],"which":[23],"an":[24,38,61],"incoherent":[25,74],"bookie":[26,48],"can":[27],"be":[28],"sure":[31,71],"loser.":[32],"Each":[33],"bet":[34],"considered":[36],"as":[37],"investment":[39],"from":[40],"the":[41,47,54,70,79,83,90,99,109,112],"points":[42],"view":[44],"both":[46],"and":[49,69,98],"gambler":[51],"who":[52],"takes":[53],"bet.":[55],"From":[56],"each":[57,67],"viewpoint,":[58],"we":[59],"define":[60],"amount":[62],"invested":[63],"(or":[64],"escrowed)":[65],"for":[66],"bet,":[68],"loss":[72],"divided":[77],"escrow":[80],"to":[81],"determine":[82],"rate":[84],"incoherence.":[86],"Potential":[87],"applications":[88],"include":[89],"treatment":[91],"arbitrage":[93],"opportunities":[94],"financial":[96],"markets":[97],"incoherence":[102],"classical":[104],"statistical":[105],"procedures.":[106],"We":[107],"illustrate":[108],"latter":[110],"example":[113],"hypothesis":[115],"testing":[116],"fixed":[119],"size.":[120]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
