{"id":"https://openalex.org/W1432504308","doi":null,"title":"Investigating the Difference between Surprise and Probability Judgments","display_name":"Investigating the Difference between Surprise and Probability Judgments","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W1432504308","mag":"1432504308"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:mural.maynoothuniversity.ie:10324","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401432","display_name":"Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I157286207","host_organization_name":"National University of Ireland, Maynooth","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157286207"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Book Section"},"volume":null,"type":"book-chapter","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5013597864","display_name":"Phil Maguire","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-8403","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8993-8403"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I157286207","display_name":"National University of Ireland, Maynooth","ror":"https://ror.org/048nfjm95","country_code":"IE","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157286207"]}],"countries":["IE"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Phil Maguire","raw_affiliation_strings":["(Maynooth University)"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"(Maynooth University)","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I157286207"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5003549312","display_name":"Rebecca Maguire","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0368-4626","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0368-4626"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Rebecca Maguire","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0368-4626","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":1.4901,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":8,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.87346939,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":false},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":94},"biblio":{"volume":"31","issue":"31","first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.7817000150680542,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.7817000150680542,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14394","display_name":"Cognitive Science and Education Research","score":0.09889999777078629,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2805","display_name":"Cognitive Neuroscience"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/28","display_name":"Neuroscience"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/1","display_name":"Life Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11303","display_name":"Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference","score":0.024399999529123306,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1702","display_name":"Artificial Intelligence"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/surprise","display_name":"surprise","score":0.9940000176429749},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/subjective-probability","display_name":"subjective probability","score":0.8560000061988831},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/sensemaking","display_name":"sensemaking","score":0.796999990940094},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/expectations","display_name":"expectations","score":0.460999995470047},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-judgment","display_name":"probability judgment","score":0.40299999713897705}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780343955","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q333173","display_name":"Surprise","level":2,"score":0.9834247827529907},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.6921312808990479},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C148220186","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7111912","display_name":"Outcome (game theory)","level":2,"score":0.6476097702980042},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.4744511544704437},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C180747234","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q23373","display_name":"Cognitive psychology","level":1,"score":0.4153568744659424},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.3707643151283264},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.2666158676147461},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.0788038969039917},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.06257548928260803},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":5,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:mural.maynoothuniversity.ie:10324","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","pdf_url":"https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/id/eprint/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401432","display_name":"Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I157286207","host_organization_name":"National University of Ireland, Maynooth","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157286207"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"acceptedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Book Section"},{"id":"pmh:oai:eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie:10324","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","pdf_url":"http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401432","display_name":"Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I157286207","host_organization_name":"National University of Ireland, Maynooth","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157286207"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Book Section"},{"id":"pmh:oai:trap.ncirl.ie:1228","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://trap.ncirl.ie/1228/1/Investigating_the_difference_between_surprise_and_probability_judgments.pdf","pdf_url":"http://trap.ncirl.ie/1228/1/Investigating_the_difference_between_surprise_and_probability_judgments.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400345","display_name":"TRAP@NCI (National College of Ireland)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I104546213","host_organization_name":"National College of Ireland","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I104546213"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Book Section"},{"id":"pmh:oai:CiteSeerX.psu:10.1.1.322.4862","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.322.4862","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"http://141.14.165.6/CogSci09/papers/546/paper546.pdf","raw_type":"text"},{"id":"mag:1432504308","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://csjarchive.cogsci.rpi.edu/proceedings/2009/papers/546/paper546.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306474746","display_name":"Lawrence Erlbaum Associates eBooks","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320547","host_organization_name":"Taylor & Francis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320547","https://openalex.org/P4310320449"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Taylor & Francis","Informa"],"type":"ebook platform"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"Lawrence Erlbaum Associates eBooks","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie:10324","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","pdf_url":"http://eprints.maynoothuniversity.ie/10324/1/PM-Investigating-2009.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401432","display_name":"Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (Maynooth University)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I157286207","host_organization_name":"National University of Ireland, Maynooth","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I157286207"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"","raw_type":"Book Section"},"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"grobid_xml":true,"pdf":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1432504308.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W1432504308.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":14,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W146717778","https://openalex.org/W330784614","https://openalex.org/W384560029","https://openalex.org/W1587002425","https://openalex.org/W1984871604","https://openalex.org/W2002824357","https://openalex.org/W2012563519","https://openalex.org/W2034794456","https://openalex.org/W2069299116","https://openalex.org/W2101978516","https://openalex.org/W2120889539","https://openalex.org/W2146210841","https://openalex.org/W2162829624","https://openalex.org/W2207137498"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2032454632","https://openalex.org/W2207137498","https://openalex.org/W2286990003","https://openalex.org/W2101978516","https://openalex.org/W7017934188","https://openalex.org/W2019544011","https://openalex.org/W2002824357","https://openalex.org/W330784614","https://openalex.org/W6996546236","https://openalex.org/W3039938571"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Surprise":[0],"is":[1,15,39,153],"often":[2],"defined":[3],"in":[4,74,83],"terms":[5],"of":[6,12,46,54,81,105,125,140,147,167],"disconfirmed":[7],"expectations,":[8],"whereby":[9],"the":[10,21,52,59,132,135,145,157],"surprisingness":[11],"an":[13,47,63,90,93,129],"event":[14,26,64],"thought":[16],"to":[17,23,61,118],"be":[18,119],"dependent":[19],"on":[20,58],"degree":[22],"which":[24,62,99],"that":[25,37,72,109,144],"contrasts":[27],"with":[28,156],"a":[29,44],"more":[30,40],"likely,":[31],"or":[32],"expected,":[33],"outcome.":[34,94],"We":[35,95],"propose":[36],"surprise":[38,55,78,168],"accurately":[41],"modelled":[42],"as":[43],"manifestation":[45],"ongoing":[48],"sense-making":[49,69],"process.":[50],"Specifically,":[51],"level":[53,146],"experienced":[56],"depends":[57],"extent":[60],"necessitates":[65],"representational":[66,84],"updating.":[67],"This":[68],"view":[70],"predicts":[71],"differences":[73,82,88],"subjective":[75],"probability":[76,116,160],"and":[77,92,151,161],"arise":[79],"because":[80],"specificity":[85],"rather":[86],"than":[87],"between":[89,134,149,159],"expectation":[91,150],"describe":[96],"two":[97,136],"experiments":[98],"support":[100],"this":[101],"hypothesis.":[102],"The":[103,138,163],"results":[104,139],"Experiment":[106,141],"1":[107],"demonstrate":[108],"generalised":[110],"representations":[111],"can":[112],"allow":[113],"subjectively":[114],"low":[115],"outcomes":[117],"integrated":[120],"without":[121],"eliciting":[122],"high":[123],"levels":[124],"surprise,":[126],"thus":[127],"providing":[128],"explanation":[130],"for":[131,165],"difference":[133,158],"measures.":[137],"2":[142],"reveal":[143],"contrast":[148],"outcome":[152],"not":[154],"correlated":[155],"surprise.":[162],"implications":[164],"models":[166],"are":[169],"discussed.":[170]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2025,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2018,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-10-27T15:51:10.671819","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}