{"id":"https://openalex.org/W138336006","doi":null,"title":"Predispositions and foreign policy surprises: Assessing the impact of rational and biased beliefs on strategic decision-making","display_name":"Predispositions and foreign policy surprises: Assessing the impact of rational and biased beliefs on strategic decision-making","publication_year":2008,"publication_date":"2008-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W138336006","mag":"138336006"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/61697","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstreams/b34e857f-0cce-4c2d-a403-fcbb8e61227b/download","pdf_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/61697","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Thesis"},"volume":null,"type":"dissertation","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/61697","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5027114761","display_name":"Scott Helfstein","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Scott Helfstein","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5027114761"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":true,"cited_by_count":0,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.7964000105857849,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10053","display_name":"International Relations and Foreign Policy","score":0.7964000105857849,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12572","display_name":"Intelligence, Security, War Strategy","score":0.1746000051498413,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3320","display_name":"Political Science and International Relations"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.01119999960064888,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/foreign-policy-decision-making","display_name":"foreign policy decision-making","score":0.9729999899864197},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/surprise-attack","display_name":"surprise attack","score":0.6140000224113464},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/psychological-biases","display_name":"psychological biases","score":0.6660000085830688},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/misjudgment","display_name":"misjudgment","score":0.6840000152587891},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bayesian-updating","display_name":"Bayesian updating","score":0.7649999856948853},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/overconfidence","display_name":"overconfidence","score":0.39500001072883606},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/rational-actor-model","display_name":"rational actor model","score":0.6819999814033508},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/bureaucratic-politics","display_name":"bureaucratic politics","score":0.9070000052452087},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/international-crisis","display_name":"international crisis","score":0.5860000252723694},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/cuban-missile-crisis","display_name":"Cuban Missile Crisis","score":0.8619999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arab-israeli-wars","display_name":"Arab-Israeli wars","score":0.9309999942779541},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/strategic-decision-making","display_name":"strategic decision-making","score":0.4560000002384186},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/intelligence-failure","display_name":"intelligence failure","score":0.38999998569488525}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C118084267","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q26110","display_name":"Positive economics","level":1,"score":0.40434756875038147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.4001016318798065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C15744967","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q9418","display_name":"Psychology","level":0,"score":0.3817792236804962},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C77805123","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q161272","display_name":"Social psychology","level":1,"score":0.3618715703487396},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.2749057412147522}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":2,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/61697","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstreams/b34e857f-0cce-4c2d-a403-fcbb8e61227b/download","pdf_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/61697","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Thesis"},{"id":"mag:138336006","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/61697/shelfste_1.pdf?sequence=1","pdf_url":null,"source":null,"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":null,"is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:deepblue.lib.umich.edu:2027.42/61697","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstreams/b34e857f-0cce-4c2d-a403-fcbb8e61227b/download","pdf_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/2027.42/61697","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400393","display_name":"Deep Blue (University of Michigan)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I27837315","host_organization_name":"University of Michigan","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I27837315"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":"other-oa","license_id":"https://openalex.org/licenses/other-oa","version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Thesis"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"display_name":"Peace, justice, and strong institutions","id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/16","score":0.666700005531311}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":true,"grobid_xml":true},"content_urls":{"pdf":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W138336006.pdf","grobid_xml":"https://content.openalex.org/works/W138336006.grobid-xml"},"referenced_works_count":177,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W3350118","https://openalex.org/W158727920","https://openalex.org/W218723086","https://openalex.org/W419887407","https://openalex.org/W564408031","https://openalex.org/W580797341","https://openalex.org/W585000793","https://openalex.org/W597707791","https://openalex.org/W605113970","https://openalex.org/W619738782","https://openalex.org/W625822224","https://openalex.org/W632398398","https://openalex.org/W633738962","https://openalex.org/W647432121","https://openalex.org/W1480822990","https://openalex.org/W1483897237","https://openalex.org/W1492914799","https://openalex.org/W1500265761","https://openalex.org/W1511619189","https://openalex.org/W1511970562","https://openalex.org/W1525261894","https://openalex.org/W1528505530","https://openalex.org/W1530756071","https://openalex.org/W1551328902","https://openalex.org/W1553050686","https://openalex.org/W1565005035","https://openalex.org/W1566885652","https://openalex.org/W1573921637","https://openalex.org/W1597904068","https://openalex.org/W1604921213","https://openalex.org/W1605468281","https://openalex.org/W1605483084","https://openalex.org/W1768625767","https://openalex.org/W1964967923","https://openalex.org/W1965501342","https://openalex.org/W1966658282","https://openalex.org/W1966737178","https://openalex.org/W1967632854","https://openalex.org/W1969313312","https://openalex.org/W1978045088","https://openalex.org/W1980544050","https://openalex.org/W1982314020","https://openalex.org/W1983818966","https://openalex.org/W1985046013","https://openalex.org/W1986406560","https://openalex.org/W1992717285","https://openalex.org/W1994917709","https://openalex.org/W1995355963","https://openalex.org/W1997402019","https://openalex.org/W1998129945","https://openalex.org/W1999162617","https://openalex.org/W2003288751","https://openalex.org/W2008425563","https://openalex.org/W2013910848","https://openalex.org/W2014757353","https://openalex.org/W2017472428","https://openalex.org/W2020604396","https://openalex.org/W2020784407","https://openalex.org/W2022681802","https://openalex.org/W2035899573","https://openalex.org/W2038552289","https://openalex.org/W2041685217","https://openalex.org/W2043846216","https://openalex.org/W2047156377","https://openalex.org/W2050883874","https://openalex.org/W2051007172","https://openalex.org/W2058047543","https://openalex.org/W2062238102","https://openalex.org/W2062663664","https://openalex.org/W2068869385","https://openalex.org/W2069568321","https://openalex.org/W2074117897","https://openalex.org/W2074153261","https://openalex.org/W2075536921","https://openalex.org/W2075772193","https://openalex.org/W2076585926","https://openalex.org/W2077375749","https://openalex.org/W2079416022","https://openalex.org/W2090841440","https://openalex.org/W2092357779","https://openalex.org/W2093182843","https://openalex.org/W2093248821","https://openalex.org/W2094419105","https://openalex.org/W2094736317","https://openalex.org/W2095906604","https://openalex.org/W2102461955","https://openalex.org/W2106333595","https://openalex.org/W2106798814","https://openalex.org/W2107458670","https://openalex.org/W2108378466","https://openalex.org/W2109312871","https://openalex.org/W2109519089","https://openalex.org/W2110667918","https://openalex.org/W2111373603","https://openalex.org/W2113221780","https://openalex.org/W2114854754","https://openalex.org/W2115747715","https://openalex.org/W2116313670","https://openalex.org/W2117548053","https://openalex.org/W2117573475","https://openalex.org/W2118744644","https://openalex.org/W2122185521","https://openalex.org/W2123237697","https://openalex.org/W2124369322","https://openalex.org/W2125044185","https://openalex.org/W2125105114","https://openalex.org/W2125314132","https://openalex.org/W2125520394","https://openalex.org/W2128633294","https://openalex.org/W2130136032","https://openalex.org/W2131108751","https://openalex.org/W2133469585","https://openalex.org/W2135035101","https://openalex.org/W2137091439","https://openalex.org/W2139343462","https://openalex.org/W2140917618","https://openalex.org/W2144202919","https://openalex.org/W2144487825","https://openalex.org/W2150261734","https://openalex.org/W2150518915","https://openalex.org/W2151969361","https://openalex.org/W2152561570","https://openalex.org/W2153469628","https://openalex.org/W2155263310","https://openalex.org/W2155822737","https://openalex.org/W2157199617","https://openalex.org/W2157638838","https://openalex.org/W2159322587","https://openalex.org/W2161648594","https://openalex.org/W2162192421","https://openalex.org/W2162976807","https://openalex.org/W2165637152","https://openalex.org/W2166735555","https://openalex.org/W2169512000","https://openalex.org/W2170427272","https://openalex.org/W2170527550","https://openalex.org/W2285786022","https://openalex.org/W2303826537","https://openalex.org/W2312569544","https://openalex.org/W2312909350","https://openalex.org/W2313488430","https://openalex.org/W2317484034","https://openalex.org/W2318918360","https://openalex.org/W2320292744","https://openalex.org/W2320411823","https://openalex.org/W2322303885","https://openalex.org/W2324174583","https://openalex.org/W2324327914","https://openalex.org/W2324344155","https://openalex.org/W2324639037","https://openalex.org/W2325266811","https://openalex.org/W2326269233","https://openalex.org/W2328058490","https://openalex.org/W2328418989","https://openalex.org/W2330222776","https://openalex.org/W2330914989","https://openalex.org/W2332362012","https://openalex.org/W2333584940","https://openalex.org/W2345372983","https://openalex.org/W2477470005","https://openalex.org/W2478935401","https://openalex.org/W2566574651","https://openalex.org/W2578068990","https://openalex.org/W2748769486","https://openalex.org/W2796974043","https://openalex.org/W2799216492","https://openalex.org/W2799481099","https://openalex.org/W2802628606","https://openalex.org/W2914008483","https://openalex.org/W3122260906","https://openalex.org/W3122578644","https://openalex.org/W3122714908","https://openalex.org/W3123011311","https://openalex.org/W3139926450","https://openalex.org/W3146066947","https://openalex.org/W3151162449","https://openalex.org/W4232213383"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W4387186276","https://openalex.org/W2051231499","https://openalex.org/W2761101591","https://openalex.org/W635165375","https://openalex.org/W2163512969","https://openalex.org/W2003473441","https://openalex.org/W2327188945","https://openalex.org/W4392084721","https://openalex.org/W3205436251","https://openalex.org/W4211164714"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"This":[0,151,202,306],"project":[1,177,203],"analyzes":[2],"the":[3,27,31,59,88,96,108,125,133,146,165,300,314,325,335],"relationship":[4,135],"between":[5,90,136],"foreign-policy":[6],"decision-making,":[7],"surprise":[8,174,304],"and":[9,22,33,65,92,139,220,265,319],"misjudgment":[10,168],"using":[11,284],"a":[12,170,215,258,271,275,285,310,328],"multi-method":[13],"approach.":[14],"In":[15],"recent":[16],"years,":[17],"high":[18],"profile":[19],"foreign":[20],"policy":[21,40,218],"intelligence":[23],"failures":[24],"have":[25,270],"captured":[26],"attention":[28],"of":[29,39,48,62,107,148,156,167,173,182,251,287,313],"policymakers,":[30],"media":[32],"academics":[34],"alike.":[35],"Many":[36],"retrospective":[37,249],"studies":[38,69,250],"failure":[41],"identify,":[42],"implicitly":[43],"or":[44,260],"explicitly,":[45],"psychological":[46,137,157,239,254],"biases":[47,138,158,240],"pertinent":[49],"decision-makers":[50],"as":[51,214,244],"contributing":[52],"to":[53,79,114,124,186,199,302,333],"poor":[54],"outcomes.":[55],"By":[56],"focusing":[57],"on":[58,87,274],"internal":[60],"mechanics":[61],"information":[63],"usage":[64],"decision":[66],"processes,":[67],"these":[68],"draw":[70],"from":[71,290],"bureaucratic":[72,97,128],"politics":[73,129],"theory.":[74],"An":[75],"alternative":[76],"paradigm":[77,121],"used":[78],"explain":[80],"state":[81],"behavior,":[82],"rational":[83,142,339],"actor":[84,143,331],"theory,":[85],"focuses":[86],"competition":[89],"states":[91],"often":[93,131],"assumes":[94],"that":[95,238,253,266,294,324],"process":[98],"works":[99],"perfect.":[100],"Since":[101],"each":[102],"explanation":[103,130],"stresses":[104,132],"different":[105],"aspects":[106],"decision-making":[109],"process,":[110],"it":[111],"is":[112,256,307],"difficult":[113],"know":[115],"whether":[116],"conclusions":[117],"derived":[118],"with":[119,327,337],"one":[120],"are":[122,281],"transportable":[123],"other.":[126],"The":[127,176,234],"negative":[134],"outcomes,":[140],"whereas":[141],"theory":[144],"illustrated":[145],"benefits":[147],"feigning":[149],"irrationality.":[150],"thesis":[152],"improves":[153],"our":[154],"understanding":[155],"in":[159,248],"competitive":[160,227],"interstate":[161],"interactions":[162],"by":[163,229,309],"incorporating":[164],"possibility":[166],"into":[169],"formal":[171],"model":[172,326,336],"attack.":[175,305],"compares":[178],"an":[179,187,245],"efficient":[180],"form":[181],"learning,":[183],"Bayesian":[184],"updating,":[185],"inefficient":[188],"learning":[189],"mechanism":[190],"whereby":[191],"actors":[192],"irrationally":[193,208,295],"overweigh":[194],"their":[195],"prior":[196],"beliefs":[197,210,297],"relative":[198],"new":[200],"information.":[201],"then":[204],"identifies":[205],"conditions":[206],"where":[207,222],"entrenched":[209,296],"may":[211,241,298],"be":[212,242],"overemphasized":[213],"reason":[216],"for":[217,263],"failure,":[219,252],"situations":[221],"irrational":[223,267],"over-suspicion":[224,268],"can":[225,269],"offer":[226],"advantage":[228],"altering":[230],"another":[231],"player\u2019s":[232],"behavior.":[233],"deductive":[235,279],"analysis":[236,312],"suggests":[237,293],"over-used":[243],"explanatory":[246],"factor":[247],"bias":[255],"neither":[257],"necessary":[259],"sufficient":[261],"condition":[262],"surprise,":[264],"stabilizing":[272],"impact":[273],"hostile":[276],"interaction.":[277],"These":[278],"propositions":[280],"examined":[282],"quantitatively":[283],"dataset":[286],"international":[288],"crises":[289],"1918-2002,":[291],"which":[292],"reduce":[299],"incentive":[301],"attempt":[303],"followed":[308],"qualitative":[311],"1962":[315],"Cuban":[316],"Missile":[317],"Crisis":[318],"1967":[320],"Arab-Israeli":[321],"War,":[322],"showing":[323],"potentially":[329],"biased":[330],"seems":[332],"outperform":[334],"perfectly":[338],"actors.":[340]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-11-04T10:54:05.112534","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}