{"id":"https://openalex.org/W12297240","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2988127","title":"A Comparison of Some Standard Seasonal Forecasting Systems","display_name":"A Comparison of Some Standard Seasonal Forecasting Systems","publication_year":1976,"publication_date":"1976-03-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W12297240","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2988127","mag":"12297240"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.2307/2988127","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2988127","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2988127","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2765066495","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician)","issn_l":"0039-0526","issn":["0039-0526","1467-9884","2515-7884","2517-6153"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Statistician","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","is_traditional":true,"indexed_in":["crossref"],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5109204699","display_name":"Ed McKenzie","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Ed McKenzie","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5109204699"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":5.838,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":31,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.95941661,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":88,"max":93},"biblio":{"volume":"25","issue":"1","first_page":"3","last_page":"3"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T11918","display_name":"Forecasting Techniques and Applications","score":0.9970999956130981,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13487","display_name":"Statistical and numerical algorithms","score":0.0013000000035390258,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2604","display_name":"Applied Mathematics"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12205","display_name":"Time Series Analysis and Forecasting","score":0.0008999999845400453,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1711","display_name":"Signal Processing"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/17","display_name":"Computer Science"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/seasonal-forecasting","display_name":"seasonal forecasting","score":0.9869999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exponential-smoothing","display_name":"exponential smoothing","score":0.875},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/arima-model","display_name":"ARIMA model","score":0.9210000038146973},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/minimum-mean-square-error","display_name":"minimum mean square error","score":0.7319999933242798},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/adaptive-predictor","display_name":"adaptive predictor","score":0.6690000295639038},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/time-series-forecasting","display_name":"time series forecasting","score":0.40799999237060547}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.4445101320743561},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.4304017126560211},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C125403950","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2111082","display_name":"Seasonality","level":2,"score":0.4211881756782532},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C153294291","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q25261","display_name":"Meteorology","level":1,"score":0.36696362495422363},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3571910262107849},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C49204034","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q52139","display_name":"Climatology","level":1,"score":0.34059977531433105},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C39432304","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q188847","display_name":"Environmental science","level":0,"score":0.3307434618473053},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205649164","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1071","display_name":"Geography","level":0,"score":0.26608508825302124},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127313418","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1069","display_name":"Geology","level":0,"score":0.10983017086982727}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":1,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.2307/2988127","doi":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2988127","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.2307/2988127","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2765066495","display_name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series D (The Statistician)","issn_l":"0039-0526","issn":["0039-0526","1467-9884","2515-7884","2517-6153"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["abdc-a","anvur-scientific","cwts-core"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320595","host_organization_name":"Wiley","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320595"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["Wiley"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"The Statistician","raw_type":"journal-article"}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":13,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W27682692","https://openalex.org/W2003274998","https://openalex.org/W2017132981","https://openalex.org/W2160168213","https://openalex.org/W2167036165","https://openalex.org/W2313953460","https://openalex.org/W2795391743","https://openalex.org/W2795594306","https://openalex.org/W2795933858","https://openalex.org/W2796153380","https://openalex.org/W2800480579","https://openalex.org/W2801117776","https://openalex.org/W2801259289"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2327778350","https://openalex.org/W1965159052","https://openalex.org/W2132782512","https://openalex.org/W2057701369","https://openalex.org/W2801117776","https://openalex.org/W3011135807","https://openalex.org/W1491394602","https://openalex.org/W7045592006","https://openalex.org/W3141318378","https://openalex.org/W2080942961"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"Many":[0],"seasonal":[1,49],"forecasting":[2,114],"systems":[3,84,95],"employ":[4],"exponentially":[5],"weighted":[6],"moving":[7],"averages":[8],"usually":[9],"in":[10,61],"the":[11,47,82,93,101,105,113],"estimation":[12],"of":[13,18,20,22,30,72,100,110,112],"a":[14,62,69],"trend":[15],"which":[16],"consists":[17],"sums":[19],"products":[21],"polynomials":[23],"and":[24,51,54,75,81,104],"sinusoids.":[25],"The":[26],"difference":[27],"equation":[28],"structure":[29],"such":[31],"trends":[32],"is":[33,96],"exploited":[34],"to":[35,58],"obtain":[36],"adaptive":[37],"predictors.":[38],"Brown's":[39],"General":[40],"Exponential":[41],"Smoothing,":[42],"i.e.":[43],"discounted":[44],"least":[45],"squares,":[46],"Holt-Winters":[48],"form":[50],"Harrison's":[52],"Seatrend":[53],"Doubts":[55],"are":[56,77,121],"shown":[57],"be":[59],"optimal":[60],"minimum":[63],"mean":[64],"square":[65],"error":[66],"sense":[67],"for":[68,85,90],"particular":[70],"family":[71],"stochastic":[73],"processes,":[74],"comparisons":[76],"made":[78],"between":[79,92],"them":[80],"Box-Jenkins":[83],"these":[86],"processes.":[87],"One":[88],"criterion":[89],"choosing":[91],"standard":[94],"considered,":[97],"viz.":[98],"stationarity":[99],"forecast":[102],"errors,":[103],"effect":[106],"on":[107],"this":[108],"choice":[109],"invertibility":[111],"system":[115],"noted.":[116],"Some":[117],"recommendations":[118],"regarding":[119],"application":[120],"made.":[122]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2023,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2017,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":1}],"updated_date":"2026-11-07T11:25:07.637180","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
