{"id":"https://openalex.org/W105229034","doi":null,"title":"Principle of Uncertain Future","display_name":"Principle of Uncertain Future","publication_year":2006,"publication_date":"2006-01-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W105229034","mag":"105229034"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:nos:wuwpmi:harin_alexander.34115-061203","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://harin.socionet.ru/files/Principle061203.pdf","pdf_url":"http://harin.socionet.ru/files/Principle061203.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},"volume":null,"type":"preprint","indexed_in":[],"open_access":{"is_oa":false,"oa_status":"closed","oa_url":null,"any_repository_has_fulltext":false},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016695883","display_name":"Alexander Harin","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-4316","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-4316"]},"institutions":[],"countries":[],"is_corresponding":true,"raw_author_name":"Alexander Harin","raw_affiliation_strings":[],"raw_orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9447-4316","affiliations":[]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":0,"institutions_distinct_count":0,"corresponding_author_ids":["https://openalex.org/A5016695883"],"corresponding_institution_ids":[],"apc_list":null,"apc_paid":null,"fwci":null,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":2,"citation_normalized_percentile":null,"cited_by_percentile_year":null,"biblio":{"volume":null,"issue":null,"first_page":null,"last_page":null},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10315","display_name":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","score":0.9984999895095825,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1800","display_name":"General Decision Sciences"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T13500","display_name":"Probability and Statistical Research","score":0.0003000000142492354,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2613","display_name":"Statistics and Probability"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/26","display_name":"Mathematics"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/3","display_name":"Physical Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T10646","display_name":"Experimental Behavioral Economics Studies","score":0.00019999999494757503,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3311","display_name":"Safety Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/probability-weighting","display_name":"probability weighting","score":0.6290000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/allais-paradox","display_name":"Allais paradox","score":0.9399999976158142},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/risk-aversion","display_name":"risk aversion","score":0.9950000047683716},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/loss-aversion","display_name":"loss aversion","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/ellsberg-paradox","display_name":"Ellsberg paradox","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/equity-premium-puzzle","display_name":"equity premium puzzle","score":0.9980000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/prospect-theory","display_name":"prospect theory","score":0.6290000081062317},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/decision-making-under-uncertainty","display_name":"decision making under uncertainty","score":0.5479999780654907}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C129915516","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q17083550","display_name":"Risk aversion (psychology)","level":3,"score":0.6375532150268555},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162324750","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q8134","display_name":"Economics","level":0,"score":0.5430784225463867},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C204323151","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q905424","display_name":"Range (aeronautics)","level":2,"score":0.4778280258178711},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C144237770","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q747534","display_name":"Mathematical economics","level":1,"score":0.4665154218673706},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C205706631","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2319304","display_name":"Expected utility hypothesis","level":2,"score":0.4652356207370758},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C141042865","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q200125","display_name":"Expected value","level":2,"score":0.4293992519378662},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779662365","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q5416694","display_name":"Event (particle physics)","level":2,"score":0.4259116053581238},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C101161028","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q129096","display_name":"Equity premium puzzle","level":3,"score":0.4240686297416687},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C149782125","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q160039","display_name":"Econometrics","level":1,"score":0.42236411571502686},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C27548731","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q88272","display_name":"Investment (military)","level":3,"score":0.4113849699497223},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C33923547","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q395","display_name":"Mathematics","level":0,"score":0.3970237076282501},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C162118730","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1128453","display_name":"Actuarial science","level":1,"score":0.3600676953792572},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C151541453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q523022","display_name":"Risk premium","level":2,"score":0.306704044342041},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C105795698","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12483","display_name":"Statistics","level":1,"score":0.20439663529396057},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C121332964","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q413","display_name":"Physics","level":0,"score":0.1047494113445282},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.09888947010040283},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C62520636","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q944","display_name":"Quantum mechanics","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C94625758","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7163","display_name":"Politics","level":2,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C17744445","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q36442","display_name":"Political science","level":0,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C199539241","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7748","display_name":"Law","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C146978453","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3798668","display_name":"Aerospace engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[],"locations_count":3,"locations":[{"id":"pmh:oai:RePEc:nos:wuwpmi:harin_alexander.34115-061203","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://harin.socionet.ru/files/Principle061203.pdf","pdf_url":"http://harin.socionet.ru/files/Principle061203.pdf","source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"preprint"},{"id":"mag:105229034","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"http://harin.socionet.ru/files/Principle061203.pdf","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306401271","display_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I77793887","host_organization_name":"Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I77793887"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","raw_type":null},{"id":"mag:3139607561","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://ideas.repec.org/p/nos/wuwpmi/harin_alexander.34115-061203.html","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764431275","display_name":"\u00c9conomie publique/Public economics","issn_l":"1373-8496","issn":["1373-8496","1778-7440"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core"],"host_organization":null,"host_organization_name":null,"host_organization_lineage":[],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"submittedVersion","is_accepted":false,"is_published":false,"raw_source_name":"\u00c9conomie publique/Public economics","raw_type":null}],"best_oa_location":null,"sustainable_development_goals":[],"sustainable_development_goals_aurora":[],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":13,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W1536186617","https://openalex.org/W1581813620","https://openalex.org/W1984941673","https://openalex.org/W1992558505","https://openalex.org/W2020682446","https://openalex.org/W2057057434","https://openalex.org/W2120947277","https://openalex.org/W2135343068","https://openalex.org/W2157475569","https://openalex.org/W2333311386","https://openalex.org/W3123799203","https://openalex.org/W3124261551","https://openalex.org/W3149478873"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W2105779977","https://openalex.org/W7098532575","https://openalex.org/W2141388049","https://openalex.org/W1560155800","https://openalex.org/W2604515771","https://openalex.org/W7096984588","https://openalex.org/W109036567","https://openalex.org/W2162944011","https://openalex.org/W2731446686","https://openalex.org/W2364844116"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"The":[0,123],"principle":[1,124,146],"of":[2,7,14,40,62,76,92,95,100,105,134,144,149,151,154],"uncertain":[3],"future:":[4],"the":[5,30,35,38,44,53,59,68,73,82,89,98,103,108,115,118,132,145],"probability":[6,31,50],"a":[8,12,18,23,93],"future":[9],"event":[10],"contains":[11],"degree":[13],"(hidden)":[15],"uncertainty.":[16],"As":[17],"result,":[19],"this":[20],"uncertainty":[21],"(in":[22],"sense,":[24],"similar":[25],"to":[26,37,52],"vibrations,":[27],"fluctuations)":[28],"pushes":[29],"value":[32],"back":[33],"from":[34],"bounds":[36],"middle":[39,54],"its":[41,126],"range":[42],"(from":[43],"very":[45,48],"high":[46,63,101],"and":[47,102,125,141,147],"low":[49,77,106],"values":[51,61,75],"ones).":[55],"In":[56],"other":[57],"words,":[58],"real":[60,74],"probabilities":[64,78],"are":[65,79,157],"lower":[66],"than":[67,81],"preliminarily":[69,83],"determined":[70,84],"ones.":[71,85],"Conversely,":[72],"higher":[80],"This":[86],"result":[87],"provides":[88],"uniform":[90],"solution":[91,150],"number":[94],"fundamental":[96,155],"problems:":[97],"underweighting":[99],"overweighting":[104],"probabilities,":[107],"Allais":[109],"paradox,":[110,117],"risk":[111],"aversion,":[112,114],"loss":[113],"Ellsberg":[116],"equity":[119],"premium":[120],"puzzle,":[121],"etc.":[122],"consequences":[127],"can":[128],"be":[129],"applied":[130],"in":[131],"fields":[133],"banking,":[135],"investment,":[136],"insurance,":[137],"trade,":[138],"industry,":[139],"planning":[140],"forecasting.":[142],"Explanations":[143],"examples":[148],"three":[152],"types":[153],"problems":[156],"provided.":[158]},"counts_by_year":[],"updated_date":"2026-10-12T09:40:04.860316","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}
