{"id":"https://openalex.org/W101347189","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003335490912400604","title":"Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework","display_name":"Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework","publication_year":2009,"publication_date":"2009-11-01","ids":{"openalex":"https://openalex.org/W101347189","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003335490912400604","mag":"101347189","pmid":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19894419","pmcid":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2773940"},"language":"en","primary_location":{"id":"doi:10.1177/003335490912400604","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003335490912400604","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003335490912400604","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S106099243","display_name":"Public Health Reports","issn_l":"0033-3549","issn":["0033-3549","1468-2877"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public Health Reports\u00ae","raw_type":"journal-article"},"volume":null,"type":"article","indexed_in":["crossref","pubmed"],"open_access":{"is_oa":true,"oa_status":"green","oa_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2773940","any_repository_has_fulltext":true},"authorships":[{"author_position":"first","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5016457212","display_name":"Jeroen van Meijgaard","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3948-1556","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3948-1556"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161318765","display_name":"University of California, Los Angeles","ror":"https://ror.org/046rm7j60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jeroen van Meijgaard","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA","University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]},{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA 90024, USA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}]},{"author_position":"middle","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5113693744","display_name":"Jonathan E. Fielding","orcid":null,"observed_orcids":[]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161318765","display_name":"University of California, Los Angeles","ror":"https://ror.org/046rm7j60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Jonathan E. Fielding","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}]},{"author_position":"last","author":{"id":"https://openalex.org/A5041739922","display_name":"Gerald F. Kominski","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5214-7133","observed_orcids":["https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5214-7133"]},"institutions":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/I161318765","display_name":"University of California, Los Angeles","ror":"https://ror.org/046rm7j60","country_code":"US","type":"education","lineage":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}],"countries":["US"],"is_corresponding":false,"raw_author_name":"Gerald F. Kominski","raw_affiliation_strings":["University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA"],"raw_orcid":null,"affiliations":[{"raw_affiliation_string":"University of California Los Angeles School of Public Health, Department of Health Services, Los Angeles, CA","institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"]}]}],"institutions":[],"countries_distinct_count":1,"institutions_distinct_count":1,"corresponding_author_ids":[],"corresponding_institution_ids":["https://openalex.org/I161318765"],"apc_list":{"value":4400,"currency":"USD","value_usd":4400},"apc_paid":null,"fwci":4.962,"has_fulltext":false,"cited_by_count":29,"citation_normalized_percentile":{"value":0.94420616,"is_in_top_1_percent":false,"is_in_top_10_percent":true},"cited_by_percentile_year":{"min":89,"max":99},"biblio":{"volume":"124","issue":"6","first_page":"778","last_page":"789"},"is_retracted":false,"is_paratext":false,"is_xpac":false,"primary_topic":{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14509","display_name":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","score":0.6996999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},"topics":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/T14509","display_name":"demographic modeling and climate adaptation","score":0.6996999979019165,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/1803","display_name":"Management Science and Operations Research"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/18","display_name":"Decision Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12011","display_name":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","score":0.27469998598098755,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/3317","display_name":"Demography"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/33","display_name":"Social Sciences"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/2","display_name":"Social Sciences"}},{"id":"https://openalex.org/T12935","display_name":"Healthcare Systems and Public Health","score":0.004399999976158142,"subfield":{"id":"https://openalex.org/subfields/2713","display_name":"Epidemiology"},"field":{"id":"https://openalex.org/fields/27","display_name":"Medicine"},"domain":{"id":"https://openalex.org/domains/4","display_name":"Health Sciences"}}],"keywords":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/exercise","display_name":"physical activity","score":0.6589999794960022},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/obesity","display_name":"obesity","score":0.9980000257492065},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/coronary-artery-disease","display_name":"coronary artery disease","score":1.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/all-cause-mortality","display_name":"all-cause mortality","score":0.9990000128746033},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-care-costs","display_name":"health care costs","score":0.9869999885559082},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/health-policy-evaluation","display_name":"health policy evaluation","score":0.578000009059906},{"id":"https://openalex.org/keywords/california","display_name":"California","score":0.550000011920929}],"concepts":[{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2778149918","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q3291156","display_name":"Population health","level":3,"score":0.6370675563812256},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C138816342","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q189603","display_name":"Public health","level":2,"score":0.5925880670547485},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2780015235","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1934035","display_name":"Microsimulation","level":2,"score":0.5629894137382507},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2908647359","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q2625603","display_name":"Population","level":2,"score":0.5617043972015381},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C147077947","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1515895","display_name":"Socioeconomic status","level":3,"score":0.5391396284103394},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C99454951","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q932068","display_name":"Environmental health","level":1,"score":0.4721432030200958},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C47344431","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q1519812","display_name":"Health policy","level":3,"score":0.4456946849822998},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C2779134260","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q12136","display_name":"Disease","level":2,"score":0.41237348318099976},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C71924100","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11190","display_name":"Medicine","level":0,"score":0.37953829765319824},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C74909509","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q10387","display_name":"Gerontology","level":1,"score":0.34410586953163147},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C127413603","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q11023","display_name":"Engineering","level":0,"score":0.09778407216072083},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C159110408","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q121176","display_name":"Nursing","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C142724271","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q7208","display_name":"Pathology","level":1,"score":0.0},{"id":"https://openalex.org/C22212356","wikidata":"https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q775325","display_name":"Transport engineering","level":1,"score":0.0}],"mesh":[{"descriptor_ui":"D000293","descriptor_name":"Adolescent","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000328","descriptor_name":"Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D000368","descriptor_name":"Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D002140","descriptor_name":"California","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003198","descriptor_name":"Computer Simulation","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D003327","descriptor_name":"Coronary Disease","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005102","descriptor_name":"Health Expenditures","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005260","descriptor_name":"Female","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D005544","descriptor_name":"Forecasting","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006304","descriptor_name":"Health Status","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D006801","descriptor_name":"Humans","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008297","descriptor_name":"Male","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008875","descriptor_name":"Middle Aged","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D008962","descriptor_name":"Models, Theoretical","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D009017","descriptor_name":"Morbidity","qualifier_ui":"Q000639","qualifier_name":"trends","is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D009765","descriptor_name":"Obesity","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D011157","descriptor_name":"Population Dynamics","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":true},{"descriptor_ui":"D015992","descriptor_name":"Body Mass Index","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D050177","descriptor_name":"Overweight","qualifier_ui":"Q000453","qualifier_name":"epidemiology","is_major_topic":false},{"descriptor_ui":"D055815","descriptor_name":"Young Adult","qualifier_ui":null,"qualifier_name":null,"is_major_topic":false}],"locations_count":4,"locations":[{"id":"doi:10.1177/003335490912400604","doi":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003335490912400604","is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://doi.org/10.1177/003335490912400604","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S106099243","display_name":"Public Health Reports","issn_l":"0033-3549","issn":["0033-3549","1468-2877"],"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":true,"listed_in":["anvur-scientific","cwts-core","dongbi-b","doyens","jufo-1","ki-jl-1","medline","norway-1","poland-70","russia-white-list-2"],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/P4310320017","host_organization_name":"SAGE Publishing","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/P4310320017"],"host_organization_lineage_names":["SAGE Publishing"],"type":"journal"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public Health Reports\u00ae","raw_type":"journal-article"},{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2107823","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2773940","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmh:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2773940","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2773940","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S2764455111","display_name":"PubMed Central","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":true,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public Health Rep","raw_type":"Text"},{"id":"pmid:19894419","doi":null,"is_oa":false,"landing_page_url":"https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19894419","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306525036","display_name":"PubMed","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1299303238","host_organization_name":"National Institutes of Health","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1299303238"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":"Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)","raw_type":"Journal Article"}],"best_oa_location":{"id":"pmh:oai:europepmc.org:2107823","doi":null,"is_oa":true,"landing_page_url":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/2773940","pdf_url":null,"source":{"id":"https://openalex.org/S4306400806","display_name":"Europe PMC (PubMed Central)","issn_l":null,"issn":null,"is_oa":false,"is_in_doaj":false,"is_core":false,"listed_in":[],"host_organization":"https://openalex.org/I1303153112","host_organization_name":"European Bioinformatics Institute","host_organization_lineage":["https://openalex.org/I1303153112"],"host_organization_lineage_names":[],"type":"repository"},"license":null,"license_id":null,"version":"publishedVersion","is_accepted":true,"is_published":true,"raw_source_name":null,"raw_type":"Text"},"sustainable_development_goals":[{"id":"https://metadata.un.org/sdg/3","display_name":"Good health and well-being","score":0.8371999859809875}],"study_designs":[],"awards":[],"funders":[],"has_content":{"pdf":false,"grobid_xml":false},"content_urls":null,"referenced_works_count":46,"referenced_works":["https://openalex.org/W138451699","https://openalex.org/W167424199","https://openalex.org/W606917411","https://openalex.org/W1579927431","https://openalex.org/W1594501461","https://openalex.org/W1741567678","https://openalex.org/W1934906145","https://openalex.org/W1978202386","https://openalex.org/W1987940600","https://openalex.org/W1988429930","https://openalex.org/W1989163565","https://openalex.org/W2004541993","https://openalex.org/W2004608082","https://openalex.org/W2013271332","https://openalex.org/W2017974507","https://openalex.org/W2028624374","https://openalex.org/W2042569165","https://openalex.org/W2043627878","https://openalex.org/W2044073046","https://openalex.org/W2057349878","https://openalex.org/W2063886485","https://openalex.org/W2085681763","https://openalex.org/W2088212768","https://openalex.org/W2089492011","https://openalex.org/W2093380756","https://openalex.org/W2094646303","https://openalex.org/W2097978321","https://openalex.org/W2099176480","https://openalex.org/W2101479887","https://openalex.org/W2122777279","https://openalex.org/W2146745960","https://openalex.org/W2147042673","https://openalex.org/W2157628853","https://openalex.org/W2159957079","https://openalex.org/W2160893643","https://openalex.org/W2161564543","https://openalex.org/W2164238491","https://openalex.org/W2165076333","https://openalex.org/W2176362171","https://openalex.org/W2185186195","https://openalex.org/W2315043337","https://openalex.org/W2489782956","https://openalex.org/W2522614347","https://openalex.org/W4241409612","https://openalex.org/W4243614881","https://openalex.org/W4285719527"],"related_works":["https://openalex.org/W7100680465","https://openalex.org/W2787180507","https://openalex.org/W3092343964","https://openalex.org/W3012549529","https://openalex.org/W2735191084","https://openalex.org/W4408658529","https://openalex.org/W2069641353","https://openalex.org/W1777273729","https://openalex.org/W2295007600","https://openalex.org/W7167703188"],"abstract_inverted_index":{"A":[0],"comprehensive":[1],"population":[2,21],"health-forecasting":[3],"model":[4,71,98],"has":[5],"the":[6,15,20,65,68,97,120,142],"potential":[7,31],"to":[8,46,61,99],"interject":[9],"new":[10],"and":[11,27,30,35,58,92,116,128,136],"valuable":[12],"information":[13],"about":[14],"future":[16,77],"health":[17,78,143],"status":[18],"of":[19,67,76,123,144],"based":[22],"on":[23,83,106,119],"current":[24],"conditions,":[25],"socioeconomic":[26],"demographic":[28],"trends,":[29],"changes":[32,63,125],"in":[33,64,79,110,126],"policies":[34,127],"programs.":[36],"Our":[37],"Health":[38],"Forecasting":[39],"Model":[40],"uses":[41],"a":[42,73],"continuous-time":[43],"microsimulation":[44],"framework":[45],"simulate":[47],"individuals'":[48],"lifetime":[49],"histories":[50],"by":[51],"using":[52],"birth,":[53],"risk":[54],"exposures,":[55],"disease":[56],"incidence,":[57],"death":[59],"rates":[60],"mark":[62],"state":[66],"individual.":[69],"The":[70],"generates":[72],"reference":[74],"forecast":[75],"California,":[80],"including":[81],"details":[82],"physical":[84],"activity,":[85],"obesity,":[86],"coronary":[87],"heart":[88],"disease,":[89],"all-cause":[90],"mortality,":[91],"medical":[93],"expenditures.":[94],"We":[95],"use":[96],"answer":[100],"specific":[101],"research":[102],"questions,":[103],"inform":[104],"debate":[105],"important":[107],"policy":[108],"issues":[109],"public":[111],"health,":[112],"support":[113],"community":[114],"advocacy,":[115],"provide":[117],"analysis":[118],"long-term":[121],"impact":[122],"proposed":[124],"programs,":[129],"thus":[130],"informing":[131],"stakeholders":[132],"at":[133],"all":[134],"levels":[135],"supporting":[137],"decisions":[138],"that":[139],"can":[140],"improve":[141],"populations.":[145]},"counts_by_year":[{"year":2024,"cited_by_count":9},{"year":2019,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2016,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2015,"cited_by_count":1},{"year":2014,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2013,"cited_by_count":2},{"year":2012,"cited_by_count":7}],"updated_date":"2026-10-31T12:09:11.096373","created_date":"2016-06-24T00:00:00"}